The Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange ended trading on Monday, with the market rising after more stocks rose than declined after investors traded more than three times the shares, exchanged on Friday.
Trading ended with 32 securities changing hands, similar to the activity on Friday and ended with the prices of 13 stocks rising, 12 declining and the prices of seven remaining unchanged.
At the close, the Junior Market Index rose 13.05 points to settle at 2,603.08, and the average PE Ratio of the market ended at 10.7 based on IC Insider.com’s forecast of 2020-21 earnings.
The market closed with an exchange of 9,920,174 shares for $23,681,230 compared to 2,937,362 units at $11,279,065 on Friday.
Derrimon Trading led trading with 8.40 million shares for 84.7 percent of total volume, followed by Mailpac Group with 538,932 units for 5.4 percent of the day’s trade and Lasco Distributors with 199,213 units for 2 percent market share.
An average of 309,774 units at $740,038 in contrast to an average of 91,793 at $352,471 on Friday. Trading in July resulted in an average of 248,153 units at $668,727 trading.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading for the market shows five stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and six with lower offers.
At the close of the market, Access Financial gained 94 cents to close at $26.99 with the trading of 5,259 stocks, AMG Packaging rose 2 cents to settle at $1.75, with 125,640 stock units changing hands, Blue Power lost 15 cents to settle at $3.15 after clearing the market with 23,011 shares. Caribbean Cream gained 40 cents in closing at $4.40, with an exchange of 1,571 stock units, Caribbean Producers dropped 4 cents to end at $2.35 after exchanging 51,610 units, Consolidated Bakeries lost 19 cents ending at $1.36 clearing the market with 1,000 shares. Derrimon Trading shed 9 cents to end at $2.30 while exchanging 8,401,811 stocks, Elite Diagnostic dipped 10 cents in closing at $3.60 with investors switching ownership of 29,500 units, Express Catering declined by 6 cents to $4 in an exchange of 34,253 stocks. Fosrich dropped 24 cents to close at $3.65 and clearing the market with 34,160 shares, General Accident climbed 11 cents to settle at $7.15, and finishing at 19,458 shares changing hands, Honey Bun rose 10 cents to end at $5.40 in an exchange of 402 shares. 
iCreate added 1 cent in closing at 57 cents while trading 92,494 shares, Indies Pharma gained 2 cents to finish at $2.97 83,705 stock units changing hands, Iron Rock Insurance advanced 45 cents to $3.45 while exchanging three units. Jamaican Teas increased 11 cents to end at $5 in an exchange of 95,024 stock units, Knutsford Express shed 40 cents to close at $7.50, with 7,512 units passing through the market, Lasco Distributors gained 3 cents to settle at $3.28 in trading 199,213 units. Lasco Manufacturing rose 28 cents in closing at $3.78 after exchanging 17,211 units, Limners and Bards lost 13 cents to settle at $2.67 and finishing trading, with 12,851 units, Mailpac Group shed 1 cent to settle at $2.14, with 538,932 stocks changing hands. Main Event slipped 1 cent to $3.99 after 5,100 shares crossed the market, Medical Disposables carved out a gain of 5 cents to end at $5.05 and trading 24,047 units. Stationery and Office Supplies fell 10 cents in closing at $5.80, with 2,747 stock units crossing the market and tTech gained 60 cents to end at $7.30, with 5,000 shares passing through the market.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.
Archives for August 2020
Lying to pollsters or bad sampling
Polls conducted by Blue Dot on behalf of Nationwide, raise questions about its credibility. Poll findings on party standings, by both the Blue Dot and the Bill Johnson’s polls done on behalf of Mello TV, are similar in that they put the JLP and PNP on a head to head race at 63 percent to 37 percent basis.
That is not far from the February polls done by Don Anderson that shows the parties effectively at 58 percent to 43 percent, head to head.
The problem with the Blue Dot poll based on information included in the findings illustrates that persons who they interviewed are lying excessively, or the sample used is not computed correctly or executed, leading to biased responses. Either way, some fundamental errors exist, that leave the poll findings with a big credibility problem.
The only data in the poll findings that can be verified and test the accuracy of conclusions is wanting. The Blue Dot polls asked persons who they voted for in the last general elections, 40.17 percent said they voted for the JLP, 31.26 percent for the PNP and 28 percent said they did not vote. That is an amazing finding. That adds up to 85 percent who claimed that they voted, that contrast, with roughly 50 percent of voters on the electoral list adjusted for the removal of dead persons on the list. The Blue Dot findings should be showing that only 25 percent of the voters supporting each political party at the last election, it does not.
In the past, both the Anderson and Johnson polls showed, upwards of 60 percent persons polled indicated they would turn out at the polls, but the actual numbers have fallen well short. A lot of the difference may be due to surveys concentrating on marginal voting areas than the so-called garrison seats where voter turnout is much lower than the rest of the country.
The big question is whether the significant error in answer to the question of who persons voted for is due to persons lying or sampling errors and whether other findings in the polls were accordingly adjusted. A Blue Dot spokesperson indicates that they have not thoroughly analyzed the data but agreed that the response as to the party voted for suggesting that there may be sampling errors that need reviewing.
Adjusting for the error between the votes in the 2016 election and the poll results, put the support for parties at 39 percent for the JLP and 25 percent for the PNP or on a head-to-head basis, 61 percent for the JLP and the PNP at 39 percent.
Lasco out Medi Disposables back in IC TOP 10
Lasco Distributors rose from $2.85 to close at $3.25 after the company posted a 57 percent rise in first-quarter profit and Medical Disposables returns with the stock finding support just under $5 this past week after posting disappointing full-year results at the end of the prior week.
There was no change in the Main Market TOP 10 list for the week that saw the Main Market remaining relatively stable for the past week, while the Junior Market rose 35 points for the week on top of gains in the previous week.
Although Lasco Distributors is out of the TOP 10, investors should expect to see more gains, with the EPS of 38 cents for this fiscal year, as the stock trades at 8.7 times earnings compared with 11.2 for the Junior Market. Caribbean Cream reported good first-quarter results, suggesting a significant increase in full-year profits. The stock closed the week at $4, up from $3.65, and is poised for more gains in the weeks to come. There are limited offers to sell the stock while buying interest has picked up.
The top three stocks in each market saw little change in the rankings, leaving the top three Junior Market stocks, with the potential to gain between 239 to 695 percent by March 2021. The first is Caribbean Producers, followed by Lasco Financial and Stationery and Office Supplies.
The top three stocks in the Main Market, with expected gains of 182 to 233 percent, are Berger Paints followed by Radio Jamaica and JMMB Group.
Grace Kennedy new headquarters in downtown Kingston
This week’s focus: Grace Kennedy posted revenues of $56.5 billion, up 10 percent over the corresponding period of the prior year. Profit before tax was $4.5 billion, reflecting a 53 percent improvement over the same period in 2019. Net Profit after tax increased 36.5 percent to $2.75 billion after minority interest, with earnings per stock unit for the period of $2.77. The result to date is outstanding, projected earnings for 2021 is over $11 per share, putting the stock in the category of one of the best buys in the Main Market currently. IC Insider.com has upped its forecast for 2020 per share to $7.25, with a PE ratio of 8 at the closing stock price of $57.
QWI Investments just released its June quarter results, with a loss of $461 million for the year to date and a profit of $115 million in the latest quarter. The company’s portfolio comprises a mix of stocks mainly in Jamaica and the USA, with a smattering in Trinidad. At the end of July, the net asset value (NAV) continued to increase and ended the month at $1.06, up 11.5 percent from 95 cents at the end of March this year. The performance beats the JSE Main Market index that is down 2.5 percent over the same period and the JSE Combined Index down one percent for the same period. The NAV growth that reflects changes to the investment value plus dividend income after expenses is just behind the JSE Junior Market index that is up 12.4 percent over the same period. 
The stock price closed at 73 cents on the local market on Friday, at a steep discount of 41 percent to the net asset value.
Access Financial reported a first-quarter profit after tax to June of $33 million, compared to $165 million for the similar period in 2019 after additional provision for loan losses amounting to $67 million and loan write-off of $38 million. Income slipped as loans contracted, but the cost in some areas fell. The company is sound and is poised to return to higher levels of profit, and could even reverse some of the loan loss provisions going forward.
The targeted average PE ratio of the market is 20 based on the profits of companies reporting full year’s results from now to the second quarter in 2021. Both the Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below this level an indication of the potential gains ahead. 
The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 14.9 and the Junior Market at just 11.2, based on IC Insider.com’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The average PE ratio of the Junior Market has been slowly rising and narrowing the gap, with the Main Market as investors see better profit opportunities in this sector. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks averages a mere 6.3 at just 56 percent to the average of the overall Junior Market. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 8.1 or 55 percent of the PE of the overall market.
The average projected gain for the IC TOP 10 stocks is 261 percent, for the Junior Market and 153 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings, 
an indication that there is the potential to make greater gains in the Junior Market than in the Main Market.
IC TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
