JSE: Attention shifts to main market

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | In today’s activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, stocks of 26 companies traded, accounting for 4.7 million units, valued at $39 million. The advance decline ratio remained tilted in favour of declining stocks with 11 declining and 5 advancing as all the major indices with trades declined marginally by less than 35 points.

Two stocks closed at 52 weeks high with one of them at a record new closing high. Attention in the market switched from the juniors to the main market, as the bulk of activity took place in this segment of the market.

Trades of note Main Market | Carreras traded 75,871 units valued at $4 million between $52.81 and the closing price of $52.51, losing 34 cents on the day, the stock has found some support at this level. Gleaner Company traded 1,069,000 shares at $1.16 the same price as Friday. Grace Kennedy traded 83,670 units at $56 valued at $4.7 million. Jamaica Money Market traded 809,500 units between $8.50 and $8 as the stock closed at $8.01, Seprod traded 1.049 million shares and closed at $14.75 losing 25 cents for the day.

Junior market | 9 junior market stocks traded as the price of 4 fell to 1 increase. Activity was low keyed as seen by the levels of trading. Lasco Manufacturing was the volume leader in the segment but it only traded 259,420 units valued at $437,700, Lasco Distributors was the second largest trade with 237,000. KLE Group chipped in with 100,000 units at $2.60. Price changes were moderate in this segment of the market. Lasco Financial closed at a new all-time high at $1.42, up 3 cents with only 10,800 shares trading.

Proven Investment Preference shares traded 659,000 units valued at $3.35 million as there seems to be continued interest in these shares.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer market sentiment indicator shows that bids for 5 stocks were higher with 1 stock having offers lower than their last selling price.

TTSE: Increased breath, decreased volume

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | The number of shares traded on the Trinidad Stock Exchange was very low at the start of the week as just 101,000 units valued at $42 million traded. A total of 18 securities traded of which 2 advanced, 8 declined and 8 traded firm and one stock, BCB HOLDINGS declined by 30 cents to close at $11.60, a 52 weeks low.

Trinidad Cement which still remains an IC Insider buy rated stock, traded 30,000 shares for a value of $34,750 and closed up at $1.20, gaining 5 cents in the process. Neal & Massy Holdings with a volume of 18,005 units traded at $58.99, down a cent at a value of $1,062,115. Sagicor Financial Corporation contributed 15,660 shares with a value of $97,718 closing up 3 cents at $6.24, while National Enterprises added 11,693 shares valued at $187,088.

Clico Investment Fund was the only active security on the Mutual Fund Market, posting a volume of 23,400 shares valued at $510,628 as the price slipped by 13 cents to end at $21.82.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows that bids for 1 stock was higher and 4 stocks had offers lower than their last selling price.

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IPO: Epply closes, JSE to trade

EPPLEY offer closes early | The Eppley Initial Public Offer (IPO) which opened today, Monday July 22, 2013 at 9:00, has been closed with the issue said to be oversubscribed. Eppley Limited opened the invitation for subscription for 218,999 shares at a price of $377 per share. PROVEN Wealth, acting as arrangers and Lead Brokers of the offering, announced an early closure of the offer effective at 4:00 p.m., way ahead of the scheduled close on Monday July 29, 2013 at 4:00 p.m.

PROVEN Wealth President & CEO Chorvelle Johnson noted that she is “pleased with the level of subscription. The response to the offer has been very good with the issue being oversubscribed and hence the early closure.” The company is set to announce the basis of allotment within 3 business days.

JSE to start trading on Tuesday | The Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares which were offered public in a recent IPO at $2.85 per share and was oversubscribed, will start trading on Tuesday. The listing brings to 52 the number of companies with ordinary shares on the exchange. Eppley which was fully taken up will bring that number to 53 companies when it starts trading in a few weeks’ time.

First Citizens | In the meantime word out of Trinidad is that First Citizens is attracting great interest but there is no indication that the $1 billion IPO is yet fully subscribed. The issue is scheduled to close on 9th August.

JSE: Reports of insider trades

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Latest reports of trading by connected parties: Updated as of 22 July 2013

Kremi | Three directors bought a total of 121,141,794 shares and sold a total of 121,832,193 Caribbean Cream Limited shares during the period July 16 – 18, 2013. Scoops Unlimited which had owned 121,144,794 shares was the seller on the 16th of July with the amount being split in two equal amounts of just over 60.57 million each.

Blue Power | A party connected to Blue Power sold 5,979 of the company’s shares. So did two senior managers who sold a total of 69,393 shares and a director who sold 303,916 during the period June 25, 2013 – July 14, 2013:

Mayberry Investments | A party connected to Mayberry Investments Limited purchased 48,559 of the company’s shares during the period July 15 – 17, 2013 and a related party purchased 100 shares of the company on July 18, 2013.

Sagicor Life Jamaica | Advises that two of its executives purchased a total 790,874 of the company’s shares during the period July 11 – 12, 2013. This could be a significant indicator of good profits ahead and is therefore worth watching.

To view our last report of insider trading dated 4th July 2013, click here.

Improved business outlook

The perception of present and future business conditions in the most recent survey amongst Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers found that the business community perception has improved relative to the previous survey in April. The survey was carried out by Statin on behalf of Bank of Jamaica in May and data was collected from 300 respondents.

Perceptions about future business conditions also improved for the second consecutive survey. The improvement in these perceptions was in contrast to the declining trend observed in both indicators since the December 2011 survey. “Of note, the improvement may be attributed to continued reduction in uncertainty about the Government’s economic programme” the central bank commented.

Operating Expenses | Respondents continued to indicate that they expect the largest increase in production costs in the next 12 months to reflect the higher cost for utilities. Other costs that were expected to contribute significantly to inflation in the next 12 months included stock replacement and fuel & transport costs. The cost of raw materials and wages & salaries were the input costs least expected to increase over the next 12 months.

The survey also covered a number of other areas in addition to business conditions.

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Watching and rating

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | We’ll be watching to see what evolves during this week’s trading as we head into a period when companies start to release second quarter results. Our IC Insider “peep” behind the scenes, speaks a possible bull run since we see many instances where there’s a limited supply of stocks. Want to know more about the current demand and supply in the JSE? Read our market report Demand and supply tug of war.

Buy Rated Stock | Proven Wealth is new to our Buy Rated list. Before you buy, read our post, FX gains & securities boost Proven dated 4th June 2013, for an in-depth report of the company’s last reported results.

To search for published reports for a Buy Rated stock on IC Insider, please use ‘Search IC Insider’ and enter the company name, in full or in part.

Better than a broker’s ‘buy’ recommendation, IC Insider has no vested interest in any stock transaction or conflict of interest. Our research is backed by published reports of the company’s performance and insights of future earnings that can be found at ICInsider.com. The final decision to buy, or not, is your personal choice.

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April remittances back on track

Gross remittance inflows for April 2013 were US$180.1 million, the same as a year earlier and reflects an improvement on a year over year comparison with March of this year when inflows were off from March 2012 by $9.5 million. Inflows for the review period reflected a US$4.6 million increase in inflows through Other Remittances which was offset by reduced flows of a similar value through Remittance Companies.

Total remittance outflows for the April this year decreased by US$1.2 million to US$20.1 million. The combined impact of inflows and outflows resulted in net remittance flows increasing for April.

For January to April, total remittance inflows amounted to US$672.7 million, a decrease of US$12.3 million or 1.8 percent. The decrease amounts to US$18.8 million or 3.2 per cent deterioration in inflows through Remittance Companies. The decrease in inflows was partly offset by a US$6.6 million or 6.5 per cent increase in flows via Other Remittances.

Net remittances for 2013 to April were US$591.5 million, a decline of US$3.9 million or 0.7 per cent relative to 2012.

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See our previous report on Remittance inflows dip, published 26th June 2013.

Demand and supply tug of war

Historically, July has been the month when the local stock market starts to look up. It is also the time of year when investors tend to be on holidays, thus reducing market activity. Additionally, we need to bear in mind that companies will start to release second quarter results which could move prices. Hence, what may be reflected by the movement in stock prices and market indices may be deceptive when gleaning market sentiments.

In dominoes they say that “a peep is better than a read” and this applies to the stock market as well, especially in the short run. Taking a “peep” behind the scenes, we see many cases where the supply of stocks has declined sharply. In several cases there is really no serious supply near to current prices to meet any increase in demand without prices rising sharply. We read that as a bullish signal coming from the market at this time.

jse_logo150x150Demand & supply | There are 7 serious buyers for Blue Power between $9.18 and 10.02 with a total demand of 84,000 shares and there are two sellers with 100,000 on offer at $10.50 and 10,000 at $13. AMG Packaging is in demand at $4.25 but there is virtually no current supply. Caribbean Cream has no demand currently but supply starts at $1.15 with 100,000 units. Dolphin Cove has virtually no supply currently with less than 20,000 units on offer. Jamaican Teas supply is very low with two sellers offering 55,000 units at $5.50 and demand is rising. Lasco Distributors, which should be releasing its first quarter results on the 29th of July along with the other two companies, has demand at $1.40 but the supply is at $1.60 up to $1.80. Lasco Financial has no active supply while the demand seems to have pulled back somewhat. Lasco Manufacturing with demand at $1.65 has no supply at the end of trading. Paramount Trading has had no supply for several days.

Cable & Wireless still has good supply at 15 cents with nearly 29 million units without any serious demand coming in to meet it. The sellers seem content to allow small buying to nimble away at the supply at 14 or 15 cents. Grace remains under pressure as demand is at $50, but in limited quantity as most of whatever demand is there is around $40. Carreras has slipped sharply from its recent highs and while there is quite some demand around $50-52 buyers, have been pulling back as supply continues to push prices lower. Troubled Caribbean Cement came in for demand this week and supply has receded and is now above $2. Desnoes and Geddes has buying at $4.65- 4.70 and supply at $5.18 but there are not a lot of sellers. Selling in Jamaica Broilers is moderate but buying is not aggressive. JMMB has demand at $8 but supply is way up at $8.80 but there is not much until $10.50. Jamaica Producers has very limited supply currently. Mayberry’s selling is not heavy but demand is just from Mayberry, with no other bid in place, which has been the case for several days.

National Commercial Bank has good buying for the stock between $18.50-19 and selling is very light. Selling for Pan Jam is very light.  Radio Jamaica has buying for 4.7 million shares with the closing bid at $1.23. Sagicor Life has buying around $9 but sellers are at a much higher prices. Scotia Group has good demand around $21 but sellers are much higher for the time being. Scotia Investments has some demand at $26 but mostly from one buyer with a seller supply at $30. Seprod has neither, much demand or supply, in the market and Supreme Ventures has virtually no supply.

We’ll be watching how JSE trading unfolds over the upcoming weeks starting with the Stocks to Watch as of Monday, 22nd July 2013.

FX: Pound recovers $44.70

Friday, 19th July 2013 | In Friday’s forex trading the Pound recovered just about all that it lost on Thursday for the lowest selling rate as it put on $44.70 to close at $149.70 but the highest selling rate slipped by $2.93 to $158.53. The highest and lowest buy rates moved up by 55 cents and 67 cents respectively. The British Pound climbed 13 cents to $152.95 buying and the average selling rate moved up by 72 cents to $155.79.

The average rates moved up for the buying and selling of the US dollar by 14 cents and 17 cents respectively as the buying rate closed at $101.24 and the selling rate to $101.995. The buying rate for the Canadian dollar moved up by 55 cents to $96.19 but the selling rate declined by 17 cents to $98.06.

There was not much change to the highest and lowest rates for the US dollar with only the highest buying rate changing with a 5 cent decline to $102.50. The Canadian dollar climbed 9 cents and 8 cents respectively for the highest buying and lowest buying rates lost 5 cents in the highest selling rate and moved up 80 cents for the lowest selling rate which closed at $94.80.

A total of US$32.19 million was purchased and US$31.2 million sold for all currencies traded. US dollar buying was US$2 million more than the amount sold but there was more selling of Pound Sterling than purchases, the first this has happened for some time.

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JSE: Red day on market

Friday, 19th July 2013 | The last day of the week saw a decline in all the indices and the gains made in the last two days were completely wiped out. More than 9.3 million shares valued at $23.37 million changed hands. Seven million Caribbean Cream stock traded with Stocks & Securities picking up the vast majority for in house purposes and Mayberry Investment doing most of the selling to them.

The advance decline ratio turned decisively negative as 12 stocks declined while only 4 advanced. All the indices moved down sharply with the exception of the junior market index that declined by just over a point and the US dollar index and the cross listed that had no trades.

Main market trades of note | The all Jamaica Index lost 1,105.03 points to close at 87,481.85 and the JSE market index fell by 627.68 to close at 86,550.40.

The sell-off continued in Carreras with 50,000 units valued at $2.64 million trading between $53.50 and the closing price of $52.85. Caribbean Cement, which has been showing more demand, traded 355,000 units at $1 each. Grace Kennedy traded 30,100 shares at a value of $1.69 million with all being traded at $56 while losing $1. Jamaica Money Market Brokers (JMMB) traded 15,314 units between $8.80 and the closing price of $8.02 was down 78 cents from the opening price. Jamaica Producers stock closed at $20 up 50 cents with only 1,200 shares trading. National Commercial Bank traded 129,468 shares valued at $2.52 million and closed at $19.30, down 20 cents. Radio Jamaica traded 186,243 units as investors sold to the buyer with 4.7 million shares that was on the bid at $1.30 and Scotia Group traded 190,226 units valued at $4 million to close at $21.10, the same at the last traded price on Thursday. Scotia Investments fell back by 69 cents to close at $26.01 with 4,565 units trading.

Junior market | 8 stocks in the junior market traded as 2 stocks increased and 5 declined. The dominant trader, Caribbean Cream’s 7 million shares traded at a value of $7.2 million, pulling the price down by 3 cents as the stock closed at $1.03. AMG Packaging traded 221,000 shares valued at $939,265 and gained a cent. Lasco Manufacturing traded 352,190 units and closed at $1.66, Lasco Distributors traded 168,600 to close at $1.50 and Lasco Financial traded 84,350 units to close at $1.40.

Proven Investment Preference shares traded 439,730 units valued at $2.24 million at the same price as the day before of $5.09.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows that bids for 4 stocks were higher with 1 having the offer that was lower than their last selling price.

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