Murders in Jamaica declined by 37.7 percent for the year to May 2 this year, according to data released by the Jamaican Constabulary Force, with 236 murders committed compared to 379 during the same period last year.

The red line represents movements in murders and the yellow line unemployment rate

The rate of murders is now two per day on average, with a reduction of one per day. The trend puts the likely outcome for the year around 660 murders and would represent a sharp reduction from 1,141 recorded in 2024 and the fourth consecutive year of decline. If achieved, it would be the lowest year since 1994 with 690 murders.

This year’s reduction would place Jamaica around 24 per 100,000 population, in the mid-range of Latin American and Caribbean countries, in line with Venezuela’s per capita murder rate. The country would move down from the number 3 highest in 2024, but still ahead of Belize, 21.7, Costa Rica, 16.6, the Dominican Republic at just 9 and Guyana at 14.

While a lot of credit is being given to the security forces for the reduction over the past four years, not much is being said for the contribution of an improving economy and critically, the historically low unemployment and the role this is playing in assisting the fight against crime. 

The data is clear, Jamaica’s crime rate worsened with the high levels of unemployment in the period from 1979 to 2019, when unemployment and that for youth jumped sharply. The attached chart shows the relations between the two, with years of change in murders lagging that of unemployment.