2023 was not a great year for the Jamaica Stock Market, with all three JSE markets declining moderately and sending powerful messages to investors, with several companies reporting increased profit, enjoying increased prices. Transjamaican Highway delivered an outstanding performance, ending the year up 93 percent and paid a 19 cents dividend for an overall return of 106 percent for the year.
Transjamaican Highway gained 93% for 2023.
Readers of this publication would have gotten a good lead ahead of the first set of results in the year with the stock listed as a Stock to Watch in April, with the price then at $1.77 and gained 53 percent since, plus the dividend.
Other notable gains were recorded by Ciboney at 107 percent, following a change in ownership of the company, Main Event rising 55 percent, Regency Petroleum rallied at 47 percent, Knutsford Express at 45 percent and Dolphin Cove at 39 percent plus paying dividends of $1.85 during the year thus raising the returns to 53 percent.
There were several disappointing performances but one message is the import of proper stock selections and the benefits of portfolio diversification.
The Main Market all Jamaica Composite Index rose 17,082 points or 5 percent and the Junior Market just 2 percent during December, with technical indicators showing the Main Market now in a bullish state, having broken out sharply from a wedge formation, but the Junior Market remains under pressure for the time being, except for a limited number of stocks.
At the close of the market, four Junior Market stocks gained between eight and 26 percent and 5 fell by 7 percent and less, while three Main Market stocks rose between one to 15 percent and two fell by 6 percent each.
The Main Market ICTOP10 ended with, Palace Amusement gaining 15 percent to $1.40, followed by JMMB Group up 4 percent to $26 and Margaritaville 3 percent to $17.58, while 138 Student Living and Key Insurance declined 6 percent each two $3.89 and $2.25 respectively.
The Junior Market ended the week, with Caribbean Cream jumping 26 percent to $4.59, Jamaican Teas popping 21 percent to $2.80, a 52 weeks’ high. AMG Packaging climbed 12 percent to $3.02 and Tropical Battery rose 8 percent to end the week at $1.90. Lasco Manufacturing fell 7 percent to $4.31, Lasco Distributors and Paramount Trading fell by 4 percent each to $3.75 and $1.60 respectively.
Tropical Battery dropped out of the IC Junior Market TOP10, and Access Financial replaced it.
Indications of where stock prices could be by May 2024 can be seen from stocks with the highest values in the Main and Junior Markets.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market ICTOP 10 stands at 5.3, well below the market average of 14 and the Junior Market TOP10 sits at 7.3, just over half of the market, with an average of 14.1.
The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 286 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings, providing better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 184 percent over the same time frame.
In the Main Market ICTOP 10, a total of 15 of the most highly valued stocks representing 31 percent of the Main Market are priced at a PE of 15 to 108, with an average of 32 and 23 excluding the highest PE ratios, and a PE of 26 for the top half and 19 excluding the stocks with overweight values.
In the Junior Market, there are 16 stocks, or 33 percent of the market, with PEs from 15 to 55, averaging 22, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 20, possibly the lowest fair value for stocks.
Of great import is that the averages of both markets are now converging around a PE of 20 for close to a third of the market, as the year is coming to a close and with more information available on the full year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns on or around May 2024 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.