JSE: Main market in focus

Tuesday, 23 July 3013 | Trading levels have slowed in the junior market as the three Lasco companies that have had frenetic trading since the beginning of June have seen demand taper down after a 10 for one stock split. Trading on the market took place in 26 companies as 2.5 million units traded at a value of $23 million on a day when 8 stocks advanced to 4 declining with 14 traded without a change in price at the end of the trading session.

Junior Market | Nine stocks traded in the junior market, Lasco Financial Services closed at a new all-time high of $1.46 as only 62,700 shares traded. Lasco Distributors traded 413,120 shares and closed at $1.52, up 10 cents and Manufacturing closed at $1.80 up 17 cents with 180,178 units. Paramount traded 119,412 units at $3.30 with no change in the price.

Carreras traded 100,650 units valued at $5.3 million as the stock closed at $52.51, the same closing price as Monday. Grace had 90,530 units changing hands at a value of $5 million, closing at $56. JMMB closed up 49 cents at $8.50 with 407,496 units and absorbed $3.46 million in the process. Jamaica Producers lost 99 cents to close at $19.01 with just over 9,000 units traded. National Commercial Bank traded 39,170 units, closed up 45 cents at $19.50. Sagicor Life chipped in with 56,000 units, all traded at $9, the same price as the close on Monday. Scotia Group traded 93,000 units at $21.20 costing $2 million.

IPO listing | Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares which was listed today, did not trade but the stock had bids for 149,000 at the offer price of $2.85 and an offer at $3.26 to sell 20,000.

The bid offer indicator has just one stock with a bid higher than the last selling price and 2 lower.

Company results | The quality of company results will have a telling effect on the market going forward. At the end of today’s trading Hardware & Lumber released impressive profits which are up strongly over 2012 as well as up strongly on the first quarter of this year. The improvement should encourage more interest in the stock.

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TTSE: TCL dominance continues

Tuesday, 23 July 2013 | In Tuesday’s trading on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange, Trinidad Cement took the spotlight trading more than 94 percent of the shares that crossed the floor and more than a half of the value of trades, as 802,723 shares for a value of $963,268 changed hands. Since IC Insider recommended it as a buy in June, the stock is up 26 percent, closing at $1.20. At the end of trading the bid was above the last selling price at $1.21.  Unilever, one of our stocks to watch this week, had a bid at $56 compared with last selling price of $55.

There was trading in 14 securities of which 3 advanced, 5 declined and 6 traded firm. Clico Investment Fund enjoyed the day’s largest gain, increasing 17 cents to $21.99 as 5,600 of the fund’s shares valued at $123,144 traded. Readymix (West Indies) suffered the day’s greatest loss, falling 49 cents to close at $21.99 with just 5 shares trading as it reached a new 52 weeks low. Sagicor Financial Corporation had a volume of 35,457 shares traded for $220,739. Scotiabank Trinidad & Tobago contributed 2,102 units valued at $147,161, while ANSA McAL added 1,305 shares valued at $86,613.

Trading amounted to 850,676 shares valued at $1,686,190 as one stock reached 52 weeks low and one a 52 weeks high.

The number of stocks with bids that are higher than the last selling price is 2 with none having offers lower than the last sale price. At the end of Monday’s trading, 4 stocks had offers lower than the last selling price, 4 of these traded today wiping out the difference. The market has a large number of stocks without bids for some time, at the end of trading there were 10 such stocks. This is not a very bullish sign as the prices of many of these stocks will have to make a steep decline to encourage buying.

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FX: BOJ says not so fast again

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | Jamaica’s central bank signaled to the forex market today “not so fast” in the movement of the Jamaican dollar against its main intervention currency, the US dollar. Our source indicates that the central bank did selective selling to some financial institutions, as such, not all dealers got the central bank’s funds. We were unable to get the amount that BOJ sold to the system but data of past trading Mondays suggest that the figure could be around US$15-20 million.

Since the start of July the amounts bought on Mondays give some indication of the likely amount sold into the system. The July purchases are as follows: Monday July 1 a little more than US$38 million; Monday July 8 nearly US$39 million and Monday July 15 the amount was less at US$30.5 million. In today’s trading, purchases amounted to US$60.4 while selling took place for $57.6 million as the US dollar moved up 19 cents for the buying rate to close at $101.44 and the selling rate slipped back by 19 cents to close at $101.81.

The central bank’s intervention may have arisen from last week’s trading in which US dollars purchased exceeded the amount sold by nearly US$10 million, while the rate kept on slipping. This would have sent a signal that traders may be building up a long position in the currency, even as the actual sale of US dollars was US$4.5 million more than the amount purchased in the week ending July 12th, which was less than the net position last week. These figures are for the US dollar currency alone and ignores surpluses of Pounds and Canadian Dollars that were purchased and may have been converted to US dollars, the currency in greatest demand.

There was buying of C$1.065 million at an average rate of $95.95 at 24 cents less than on Friday but the average selling rate rose to $98.38, up by 33 cents as C$727,200 was sold. The Pound lost value but moderately, on both ends, to close at $152.76 buying and $155.68 selling as dealers bought £2 million and sold just £460,000.

Highest & lowest rates | Except for the highest buying rate for the US dollar which just barely inched up, there were no other changes in the rates for US currency. The Canadian dollar saw dealers spending $2.10 more when buying at the highest levels and 25 cents more at the lowest buying rate. For the sell side, the highest rate put on 32 cents and the lowest 25 cents. The Pound was bought at $2.80 more for the highest buying rate and 66 cents more on the lowest rate for selling. $3.47 was added to the highest rate and just 25 cents on the lowest rate.

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JSE: Attention shifts to main market

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Monday, 22nd July 2013 | In today’s activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, stocks of 26 companies traded, accounting for 4.7 million units, valued at $39 million. The advance decline ratio remained tilted in favour of declining stocks with 11 declining and 5 advancing as all the major indices with trades declined marginally by less than 35 points.

Two stocks closed at 52 weeks high with one of them at a record new closing high. Attention in the market switched from the juniors to the main market, as the bulk of activity took place in this segment of the market.

Trades of note Main Market | Carreras traded 75,871 units valued at $4 million between $52.81 and the closing price of $52.51, losing 34 cents on the day, the stock has found some support at this level. Gleaner Company traded 1,069,000 shares at $1.16 the same price as Friday. Grace Kennedy traded 83,670 units at $56 valued at $4.7 million. Jamaica Money Market traded 809,500 units between $8.50 and $8 as the stock closed at $8.01, Seprod traded 1.049 million shares and closed at $14.75 losing 25 cents for the day.

Junior market | 9 junior market stocks traded as the price of 4 fell to 1 increase. Activity was low keyed as seen by the levels of trading. Lasco Manufacturing was the volume leader in the segment but it only traded 259,420 units valued at $437,700, Lasco Distributors was the second largest trade with 237,000. KLE Group chipped in with 100,000 units at $2.60. Price changes were moderate in this segment of the market. Lasco Financial closed at a new all-time high at $1.42, up 3 cents with only 10,800 shares trading.

Proven Investment Preference shares traded 659,000 units valued at $3.35 million as there seems to be continued interest in these shares.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer market sentiment indicator shows that bids for 5 stocks were higher with 1 stock having offers lower than their last selling price.

TTSE: Increased breath, decreased volume

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | The number of shares traded on the Trinidad Stock Exchange was very low at the start of the week as just 101,000 units valued at $42 million traded. A total of 18 securities traded of which 2 advanced, 8 declined and 8 traded firm and one stock, BCB HOLDINGS declined by 30 cents to close at $11.60, a 52 weeks low.

Trinidad Cement which still remains an IC Insider buy rated stock, traded 30,000 shares for a value of $34,750 and closed up at $1.20, gaining 5 cents in the process. Neal & Massy Holdings with a volume of 18,005 units traded at $58.99, down a cent at a value of $1,062,115. Sagicor Financial Corporation contributed 15,660 shares with a value of $97,718 closing up 3 cents at $6.24, while National Enterprises added 11,693 shares valued at $187,088.

Clico Investment Fund was the only active security on the Mutual Fund Market, posting a volume of 23,400 shares valued at $510,628 as the price slipped by 13 cents to end at $21.82.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows that bids for 1 stock was higher and 4 stocks had offers lower than their last selling price.

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IPO: Epply closes, JSE to trade

EPPLEY offer closes early | The Eppley Initial Public Offer (IPO) which opened today, Monday July 22, 2013 at 9:00, has been closed with the issue said to be oversubscribed. Eppley Limited opened the invitation for subscription for 218,999 shares at a price of $377 per share. PROVEN Wealth, acting as arrangers and Lead Brokers of the offering, announced an early closure of the offer effective at 4:00 p.m., way ahead of the scheduled close on Monday July 29, 2013 at 4:00 p.m.

PROVEN Wealth President & CEO Chorvelle Johnson noted that she is “pleased with the level of subscription. The response to the offer has been very good with the issue being oversubscribed and hence the early closure.” The company is set to announce the basis of allotment within 3 business days.

JSE to start trading on Tuesday | The Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares which were offered public in a recent IPO at $2.85 per share and was oversubscribed, will start trading on Tuesday. The listing brings to 52 the number of companies with ordinary shares on the exchange. Eppley which was fully taken up will bring that number to 53 companies when it starts trading in a few weeks’ time.

First Citizens | In the meantime word out of Trinidad is that First Citizens is attracting great interest but there is no indication that the $1 billion IPO is yet fully subscribed. The issue is scheduled to close on 9th August.

Improved business outlook

The perception of present and future business conditions in the most recent survey amongst Chief Executive Officers, Managing Directors and Financial Controllers found that the business community perception has improved relative to the previous survey in April. The survey was carried out by Statin on behalf of Bank of Jamaica in May and data was collected from 300 respondents.

Perceptions about future business conditions also improved for the second consecutive survey. The improvement in these perceptions was in contrast to the declining trend observed in both indicators since the December 2011 survey. “Of note, the improvement may be attributed to continued reduction in uncertainty about the Government’s economic programme” the central bank commented.

Operating Expenses | Respondents continued to indicate that they expect the largest increase in production costs in the next 12 months to reflect the higher cost for utilities. Other costs that were expected to contribute significantly to inflation in the next 12 months included stock replacement and fuel & transport costs. The cost of raw materials and wages & salaries were the input costs least expected to increase over the next 12 months.

The survey also covered a number of other areas in addition to business conditions.

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Watching and rating

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | We’ll be watching to see what evolves during this week’s trading as we head into a period when companies start to release second quarter results. Our IC Insider “peep” behind the scenes, speaks a possible bull run since we see many instances where there’s a limited supply of stocks. Want to know more about the current demand and supply in the JSE? Read our market report Demand and supply tug of war.

Buy Rated Stock | Proven Wealth is new to our Buy Rated list. Before you buy, read our post, FX gains & securities boost Proven dated 4th June 2013, for an in-depth report of the company’s last reported results.

To search for published reports for a Buy Rated stock on IC Insider, please use ‘Search IC Insider’ and enter the company name, in full or in part.

Better than a broker’s ‘buy’ recommendation, IC Insider has no vested interest in any stock transaction or conflict of interest. Our research is backed by published reports of the company’s performance and insights of future earnings that can be found at ICInsider.com. The final decision to buy, or not, is your personal choice.

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Demand and supply tug of war

Historically, July has been the month when the local stock market starts to look up. It is also the time of year when investors tend to be on holidays, thus reducing market activity. Additionally, we need to bear in mind that companies will start to release second quarter results which could move prices. Hence, what may be reflected by the movement in stock prices and market indices may be deceptive when gleaning market sentiments.

In dominoes they say that “a peep is better than a read” and this applies to the stock market as well, especially in the short run. Taking a “peep” behind the scenes, we see many cases where the supply of stocks has declined sharply. In several cases there is really no serious supply near to current prices to meet any increase in demand without prices rising sharply. We read that as a bullish signal coming from the market at this time.

jse_logo150x150Demand & supply | There are 7 serious buyers for Blue Power between $9.18 and 10.02 with a total demand of 84,000 shares and there are two sellers with 100,000 on offer at $10.50 and 10,000 at $13. AMG Packaging is in demand at $4.25 but there is virtually no current supply. Caribbean Cream has no demand currently but supply starts at $1.15 with 100,000 units. Dolphin Cove has virtually no supply currently with less than 20,000 units on offer. Jamaican Teas supply is very low with two sellers offering 55,000 units at $5.50 and demand is rising. Lasco Distributors, which should be releasing its first quarter results on the 29th of July along with the other two companies, has demand at $1.40 but the supply is at $1.60 up to $1.80. Lasco Financial has no active supply while the demand seems to have pulled back somewhat. Lasco Manufacturing with demand at $1.65 has no supply at the end of trading. Paramount Trading has had no supply for several days.

Cable & Wireless still has good supply at 15 cents with nearly 29 million units without any serious demand coming in to meet it. The sellers seem content to allow small buying to nimble away at the supply at 14 or 15 cents. Grace remains under pressure as demand is at $50, but in limited quantity as most of whatever demand is there is around $40. Carreras has slipped sharply from its recent highs and while there is quite some demand around $50-52 buyers, have been pulling back as supply continues to push prices lower. Troubled Caribbean Cement came in for demand this week and supply has receded and is now above $2. Desnoes and Geddes has buying at $4.65- 4.70 and supply at $5.18 but there are not a lot of sellers. Selling in Jamaica Broilers is moderate but buying is not aggressive. JMMB has demand at $8 but supply is way up at $8.80 but there is not much until $10.50. Jamaica Producers has very limited supply currently. Mayberry’s selling is not heavy but demand is just from Mayberry, with no other bid in place, which has been the case for several days.

National Commercial Bank has good buying for the stock between $18.50-19 and selling is very light. Selling for Pan Jam is very light.  Radio Jamaica has buying for 4.7 million shares with the closing bid at $1.23. Sagicor Life has buying around $9 but sellers are at a much higher prices. Scotia Group has good demand around $21 but sellers are much higher for the time being. Scotia Investments has some demand at $26 but mostly from one buyer with a seller supply at $30. Seprod has neither, much demand or supply, in the market and Supreme Ventures has virtually no supply.

We’ll be watching how JSE trading unfolds over the upcoming weeks starting with the Stocks to Watch as of Monday, 22nd July 2013.

FX: Pound recovers $44.70

Friday, 19th July 2013 | In Friday’s forex trading the Pound recovered just about all that it lost on Thursday for the lowest selling rate as it put on $44.70 to close at $149.70 but the highest selling rate slipped by $2.93 to $158.53. The highest and lowest buy rates moved up by 55 cents and 67 cents respectively. The British Pound climbed 13 cents to $152.95 buying and the average selling rate moved up by 72 cents to $155.79.

The average rates moved up for the buying and selling of the US dollar by 14 cents and 17 cents respectively as the buying rate closed at $101.24 and the selling rate to $101.995. The buying rate for the Canadian dollar moved up by 55 cents to $96.19 but the selling rate declined by 17 cents to $98.06.

There was not much change to the highest and lowest rates for the US dollar with only the highest buying rate changing with a 5 cent decline to $102.50. The Canadian dollar climbed 9 cents and 8 cents respectively for the highest buying and lowest buying rates lost 5 cents in the highest selling rate and moved up 80 cents for the lowest selling rate which closed at $94.80.

A total of US$32.19 million was purchased and US$31.2 million sold for all currencies traded. US dollar buying was US$2 million more than the amount sold but there was more selling of Pound Sterling than purchases, the first this has happened for some time.

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