Ansa McCal profit up but it’s a sell!

July 9, 2013 by

The Ansa McCal Group has delivered top line revenues of $1,439 million compared to $1,305 million in 2012, an increase of 10% and this translated to a 6% increase in pre-tax and after tax profit and a 6% increase in EPS over the prior year thanks to lower interest cost.

The real issue is that profit fell in the quarter before charging interest on loan funding. But for this, profit would have been down as the group reported operating profit of $211 million down from $222 million in 2011 first quarter. A $24 million reduction in interest cost based on a decision of the Group to reduce their exposure to the possibility of interest rates increases and paid down the level of indebtedness by reducing long term debt of $812 million in 2011 to just $13 million at the end of 2012, helped the Group to deliver the profit of $163.5 million after tax as opposed to $153.8 million in the 2011 period before non-controlling interest in subsidiary. Profit due to the Group’s shareholders amount to $142 million versus $132 million in 2012 or 82 cents per share. All this translate to cost rising faster than income. Not a great surprise as Trinidad has suffered from above normal inflation while the economy is essentially in a recession although 2012 showed moderate growth after three years of declines.

In 2012 the Group made profits of $634 million, in 2011 the profit was $597 million but that was down from the $621 million earned in 2010. However, the Group, looks to be on track to earn around $4 per share for 2013.

Ansa-Mcal-group_bldg150x150A report from the company’s management indicates that “the Group has seen improved performance in Manufacturing, Trading, Distribution, Automotive, Media and Services. The growth in Manufacturing is particularly strong in the construction sector, which indicates increased activity in the economy and this sector remains a key driver of national economic growth. The Group continues to be well positioned to deliver on key strategic initiatives which have been previously announced, inclusive of the new block plant and the ERP project. Based on these factors, we are confident that we are on track to meet our full year targets.”

Cash flow | It is not difficult to see why the loans were paid down in 2012 as the company is throwing off lots of cash with cash flow of more than $411 million for the first quarter helping to swell the cash to $1.78 billion at the end of March, up from December’s $1.366 billion. In 2012 the Group spent $409 million on fixed assets and in 2011, $387 million as they continue to invest for expansion and modernisation. The amount spent in 2012 includes the Group’s acquisition of a furniture manufacturing and retail of appliances and electronic and electrical equipment that operates in Trinidad and Barbados.

Ansa-Mcal-CaribBeer_logo150x150Financials | Interestingly, profits have been growing since 2008 but return on equity has fallen each year as the equity to debt ratio improves with the cost of debt being less than the return on equity. Only time will tell if management did the correct thing in paying down cheap debt instead of paying investors more in dividends. This is also a sign that the company is reaching or has reached a level of maturity in the market where its know-how is honed, hence investment opportunities have become limited to utilising its own funds and that of others.

Segments & results | Manufacturing, packaging & brewing enjoyed 10 percent increase in revenues and 34 percent in pre-tax profit, the Automotive, trading & distribution recorded a 12 percent increase in revenues and  41.6 percent growth in pre-tax profit, Insurance & financial services suffered a 1.3 percent decrease in revenues and 11.5 percent fall in pre-tax profit, Media including radio, television and newspaper, services & parent company, increased by 21 percent but generated a 15 percent drop in pre-tax profit.

Buy hold sell |The Group’s finances is strong with a well-diversified portfolio of businesses that can help it weather storms. Unless the Trinidad & Tobago economy springs back to life soon there is little hope for rapid growth in profits. The PE of the stock is around 17 this year’s earnings and the dividend yield is low with a dividend of $1.10 per annum, hence the stock would not be attractive to investors looking to invest for income purposes. The growth rate frankly does not warrant a PE of such heights for the stock. Investors should consider lightening up on this stock based on the above negatives.

The stock trades on the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange.

Filed Under: Company News, Company Results Tagged With: ,

Cement could be good for your pocket

July 8, 2013 by

Last year, Trinidad Cement reported a huge loss of $390 million including a loss of $64 million due to minority shareholders in its subsidiaries. Compare that to results of the first quarter of this year, when the company was able to turn around their fortunes and recorded a surplus.

The Group recorded Earnings before Interest, Taxation, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) of $114.2 million, a 74 percent improvement over the results for the same quarter in 2012. Revenue for the quarter, increased by $117 million compared with the prior year as a result of higher cement sales volumes in Trinidad and Tobago by 52 percent, in Jamaica by 7 percent, and in export markets by 29 percent, coupled with higher selling prices in most markets. Concrete volumes from Ready Mix, a partially owned subsidiary, also exceeded the prior year period by 10 percent. As a result of the significant expenditure made in the latter part of last year, plant performance has been more reliable and efficient with clinker production exceeding prior year by 32 percent, which is partially due to the TCL strike in 2012, and cement production up by 21 percent.

cementblocks150x150Finance costs for the quarter increased by $13.9 million largely as a result of foreign exchange losses of $11.3 million arising from the 6.2 percent depreciation of the Jamaican dollar in the quarter. As a consequence of the above factors, the Group is reporting a Net Profit after Taxes for the first quarter of $14 million compared with a loss of $75 million in the prior year quarter. This translates to Earnings per Share attributable to shareholders of the parent of 7 cents compared with a Loss per Share of 25 cents in the prior year.
For the first quarter of 2013, the Group generated net cash from operations of $104 million and made principal and interest payments of $71 million on the restructured loans following the first payment of $51 million made in December last year. Additionally, as at March 31 2013, the Group is said to have met the three financial ratio covenants contained in the loan restructuring agreement.

Finances | TCL is carrying interest bearing debt of $2 billion at the end of March. The debt overwhelms equity of $695 million — not a very good position to be in. The principal repayment amounts to $100 million this year, which saves $10 million in interest payments per annum. In 2014, the amount of loan payment is $171 million. The cash flow so far seems adequate to meet the payments but there is not much wiggle room.

The company directors stated in the 2012 annual report that the Group ended 2012 in full compliance with the loan Agreement. The Board and Management continued to express concerns to the Lenders about several aspects of the debt restructuring that will be burdensome to the Group going forward. These concerns are the extent of interest costs, excessive legal fees, ongoing costs of financial and technical monitoring, costly overseas directors and the requirement for an additional and expensive foreign executive, the statement concluded.

Concern | Of major concern to the Group, must be the nearly 10 percent cost of funds plus the foreign exchange exposure on elements of it, in a country where interest rates are well below 10 percent per annum. Loans amounting to $385 million at the end of December are at variable rates, which means that interest cost could rise before the loans are scheduled to be fully liquidated. In 2018 a balloon payment amounting 43 percent of the restructure debt or approximately $860 million is due for repayment.

cementpour150x150Outlook | Management stated that the Trinidad and Tobago market has recorded very strong demand and it is anticipated this will continue. While there was declining demand in Jamaica and Barbados, it is hoped that with the post-IMF agreement in the former, and general elections in the latter, growth will return to these markets. In addition, the growth being experienced in Guyana and Suriname and the initiatives by the Group in the pursuit of additional export markets, plant efficiency and cost containment, are likely to contribute to the continuation of the good results for the coming months.

The Jamaican operation will benefit from a series of price adjustments and the removal of one importer as a competitor. These two developments should bring that operation closer to a break-even position and help improve cash flow.

Risk | Investing in the stock could pay off richly if the company maintains the current trajectory. The PE is around 2 times estimated 2013 earnings at the price of $1 on the TT Stock Exchange on Friday. With the massive debt, an investment in the stock is not without risk should something go wrong that could negatively affect earnings. The capital structure suggests that both the Trinidad and the Jamaican company should be heading to the stock market when conditions improve to raise additional equity capital from the markets and to speed up debt repayment.

Speak your mind | Will you take the leap and invest in TCL?

Read the 9th May 2013 report about Trinidad Cement Ltd, TT Cement huge turnaround but…

Filed Under: Company News, Company Results Tagged With: ,

WITCO profit up 20 percent

July 5, 2013 by

West Indian Tobacco reported profit of $115.4 million before tax for the three months ended March 2013, an increase of 18.4 percent over the corresponding period in 2012. Profit after tax for the quarter ended at $84.9 million, representing $1.01 per share, an increase of 19.6 percent over 2012 but is down on the December quarter’s figure. IC Insider estimates earnings to exceed last year’s figure and should end up around $4.40 for 2013.

While revenues climbed, the company was able to hold, or lower cost in the period. The cost of sales moved down by $1 million compared to March quarter 2012, as gross profit increased by $16 million and gross profit margin moved up to 73 percent from 70 percent in 2012. Distribution cost just barely inched up around $100,000 but administrative cost slipped slightly while other operating cost declined by $2 million to $14.5 million. The holding of expenses is quite a feat in a country where consumer prices rose by 7 percent since last year.

WITCO_Tobacco150x1502012 results | For the year to December 2012 the company reported $4.16 with the December quarter being $1.08 or $91 million which was up strongly from the $79 million earned in 2011. Revenues for 2012 increased by 10 percent to reach $1.1 billion up from $1 billion in 2011.

Finances | Witco’s equity stands at $309 million at the end of March with cash funds of $212 million. Current assets total $308 million and current liabilities $137 million and there is no interest bearing debt.

Dividend | The Board has accordingly approved the payment of a first interim dividend of $0.82 per ordinary share payable on 10 May 2013 to shareholders of record at close of business on 01 May 2013. Last year the company paid out 92 percent of its profit as dividends and the same is expected this year, which has been the norm for several years. The stock last traded at $117.25 and has a PE of 27 and the dividend yield around 3.4 percent much higher than long term rates in the twin island republic. The stock traded at $70.17 in early July last year and has gained 67 percent since then, well ahead of the movement in profits.

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OCM profits rise strongly

July 3, 2013 by

Acquisitions and revenues flows from a state election in Tobago and elections in Barbados helped to boost One Caribbean Media (OCM) revenues and profit for the March quarter this year by 40.4 percent.

OCM better results came as profits for the 3 months climbed to TT$18.1 million up from TT$12.8 million in 2012, emanating from revenues which were up by 24 percent to TT$124 million from TT$100 in the prior year. Management, in a statement accompanying the results, stated that revenues were boosted by the state election in Tobago in January and general elections in Barbados and from acquisition of four radio stations that was completed in the third quarter of 2012. They however, caution that the second quarter will be tougher than the first but expect growth to continue. In 2011 profits after tax amounted to $12.3 million pretty similar to that earned in 2012. Second quarter earnings were $18.4 million last year and moved to $22 million in the September quarter as revenues rose nearly 18 percent in that quarter. Revenues for the six months were down by $5 million in 2012 versus 2011. Hence, it would appear that the radio station acquisition during the quarter impacted revenues and profit positively.

Results comparison | The recent results is lower than the amount earned in the December quarter of $21.4 million from revenues of $145.7 million as well as the amount earned in September 2012 of $21.8 million from revenues of $132.6 million. For most media houses the first quarter of the calendar year is not usually the best in either revenues or profit as advertisers take a more moderate position in the first quarter coming out of the high expenditure of consumers and expanded advertising during the Christmas period.

OneCaribbeanMedia_easternCarib150x150Profit 2012 | For the 12 months to December last year, earnings came to $74.75 million slightly up on the $69.45 million generated in 2011 from revenues of $495 million versus $451 million for non-interest income, an increase of 9.7 percent. However, gross profit rose by 14.6 percent to $178 million from $155 million in 2011, showing greater level of efficiency in generating income. Gross profit margin was 36 percent up from 34.4 percent in 2011.

Financial health | The company is in a healthy financial position, generating annual cash flows of more than $70 million per annum, some of which it is using to acquire other income generating assets. Cash inflows could rise in the current year as profit seems poised to climb above that of 2012. It boasts equity of $620 million with current asset ratio of more than 3 to 1 with cash funds of $188 million at the end of March. Funds are clearly being built up for further acquisitions.

The company announced that on March 26, 2013 its subsidiary, The Nation Corporation of Barbados, acquired a 51% interest in a small, innovative Barbadian renewable energy company with effect from January 1, 2013. This acquisition represents less that 0.4% percent of OCM’s net book value. It is unclear what impact, if any, this acquisition will have on the company’s results in the short term.

Forecast | IC Insider is forecasting profits of $95 million or $1.41 per share for the current year giving the stock a PE of 12.2 times earnings. Based on the Trinidad stock market PE ratio and Guardian which is at PE of 22, the stock is rated a buy for medium term appreciation as the stock price could double based on these comparisons.

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Jamaica Broilers is buy rated

July 1, 2013 by

IC Insider is projecting a doubling of earnings for the current year ending in April 2014 for Jamaica Broilers. We project profits to hit $2.22 billion, which translates to $1.85 per share, up from the $1.1 billion reported in its latest audited results.

The improvement is expected from restoration of the gross margin for the broiler and feed business to levels that preceded the 2013 fiscal year, as well as increased sales and margin in the ethanol segment from full production compared to only partial production for most of last year. The ethanol operation generated the bulk of the profit in the April quarter of $260 million on revenue of $500 million compared to only $74 million on revenues of $1.36 billion for the nine months to January this year. Just maintaining the profitability in this segment, assuming that the other areas hold up as well as they did in the last year, earnings would likely grow by about $750 million or a little more than 60 cents per share.

The 2013 profit resulted in earnings per share of 91 cents based on 1.2 billion shares issued and arose from a 12.5 percent increase in revenues to $26.7 billion. IC Insider is projecting revenues of $29.8 billion for 2014, representing 11.6 percent more than in 2013.

While the increased results for the full year may not seem impressive as seen by the lack of reaction in the stock market to the results, the final numbers reflect a major recovery from the end of January as profit was down for the nine months from $687 million to $562 million. The last quarter profit jumped by 114 percent suggesting that this trend could continue well into the new fiscal year and is in keeping with the above forecast.

Jamaica-Broilers-Group_logo150x150Management’s Comments | In releasing the January results, the company management stated, “Gross profits were negatively impacted by increased US$ costs for corn and soya bean residue — our main feed ingredients. This, in addition to the depreciation in the value of the Jamaican currency, has resulted in continuing cost increases. Management felt constrained during this quarter from fully passing on these cost increases in selling price adjustments.

“Distribution and administrative costs reflect increases when compared to this quarter last year due to a number of unexpected items of expenditure. For much of this quarter our Co-Generation electricity operation was out of service. During this time over $50million in fixed costs were carried in administrative expenses while Jamaica Public Service invoices were charged to the Best Dressed Chicken Processing Plant. The Co-generation plant came back into service in mid-January. In addition, costs were incurred in relation to organizational strengthening and an assessment by the Tax Authorities, related to GCT deferred on imports.

The Ethanol Division maintained production under tolling contracts at 100% of capacity during this quarter. The segment result for this Division reflects a positive $81 million for the quarter; with the year-to-date result now showing $74million versus the negative $7 million at the end of the second quarter. Also, the build out in the Haiti operations is continuing with ever increasing sales of Haitian produced baby chicks, feed, layer birds, table eggs and processed chicken.”

Balance sheet | JBG was able to reduce the levels of inventories carried from sales to inventories of 7 times to 9 times, but it did not stop there, as inventories actually fell by $400 million, while at the same time, receivables climbed by $500 million at year end. The group took on more debt to fund asset acquisitions during the year as net debt climbed $1.38 billion to reach $5.49 billion but equity is up by $1.3 billion.

To read the full report Jamaica Broilers major profit gains, click here

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Jamaica Broilers major profit gains

June 27, 2013 by

Jamaica Broilers (JBG) is reporting 17 percent improvement in after tax results for the year to April 2013 with profits of $1.1 billion versus $936 million in 2012. Earnings per share is 91 cents for the latest year based on 1.2 billion shares issued.

These results arise from a 12.5 percent increase in revenues to $26.7 billion, a record in nominal terms. Profit growth did not come from the company’s traditional business but from ethanol production and other operations. The increase may not seem impressive when looked at for the full year but it represents a major recovery from the results at the end of January when profit was down for the nine months from $687 million to $562 million, resulting in a comeback in the last quarter with profits jumping by 114 percent. Profit before tax was up less impressively, by 70 percent from $307 million to $521 million.

Jamaica-Broilers-Group_logo150x150Most of the profit growth came from the ethanol and other operations according to the segment data. Poultry contributed $82 million less than in 2012 and feeds contribution was $215 million less. Ethanol delivered $273 million and others $385 million more than 2012.  The ethanol operations made the bulk of the profit in the April quarter. Up to January, only $74 million was generated from this operation but it jumped considerably in the last quarter.

Cost pressures hit the operations with segment profits lower to December for poultry and feeds as well as in the last quarter compared with the same period in 2012. In the last quarter, things were coming back for the poultry with segment profit of $296 million versus 300 million in 2012 and for the feeds segment, it was still off badly as just $161 million was generated in April quarter compared to $271 million in 2012. For the nine months to January, the poultry had a segment profit of $633 million versus $713 million in 2012 and for the feeds segment it was $749 million compared with $854 million.

The company took on more debt to fund assets acquisitions during the year as net debt climbed $1.38 billion to reach $5.49 billion but equity is up by $1.3 billion.

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Big payoff for Access owners

June 27, 2013 by

Access Financial Services declared an interim dividend of 31 cents per share payable on August 15, 2013 to shareholders on record as at August 9, 2013.  The ex-dividend date is August 7, 2013.

This is the first time the company is paying two dividends in one year. The last dividend paid was an interim dividend of $0.65 per share payable on February 27, 2013 to shareholders on record as at February 21, 2013 and related to 2012 profit.

The latest dividend announced will, when paid, bring the dividend payment to 96 cents for the year and will give shareholders a yield of 15.23 percent based on the stock price at the start of the year of $6.30. The Chairman has confirmed that “Access is likely to pay more than one dividend payment for the fiscal year going forward.”

The stock last traded at $8.15, a gain of 29 percent so far. IC Insider is projecting that the stock will rise much further as profit for this year could rise to well over $1 per share.

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Unilever stock not supported by profits

June 27, 2013 by

When stock prices rise much faster than the growth in profits, we need to take time to take note of what is happening. Investors in such stocks should be fully conversant with the factors at play to ensure that their investment can be properly protected if, and when, the factors change.

Unilever Caribbean stock price is up 13 percent so far this year on top of a 45 percent increase in 2012, 44 percent in 2011 and 35 percent in 2010 after a 16 percent fall in 2009. The company a subsidiary of Unilever PLC, a United Kingdom company, is based in Trinidad and manufactures a range of homecare, personal care and food products for the Caribbean region, including Jamaica, and has been having a reasonable profit performance for a number of years. In fact they have been able to improve sales and margins in a market that has been in recession since 2009. The growth in the stock price is well in excess of the rise in profits for the past four and half years.

Some of the company’s brands include Mistolin, Radiante, Breeze, Vaseline, Lux, Lipton, Becel and Blue Band. The product range also includes dishwashing liquids as well as fabric conditioners.

unileverLogo150x150For the three months to March this year, revenues climbed to $133 .6 million up from $127.5 million for the same period in 2012 while profits were up to $13 million after tax compared to $11.9 million in 2012. The December quarter is the biggest period for earnings with more than a third being generated in the period. For 2012 full year to December the company reported after tax profit of $59.5 million an increase of 2.8 percent over that earned in 2011. Profit for 2011 was up 11 percent over 2010 and 2010 profit was up 26 percent over the previous year. Lower interest rates in Trinidad have helped to push the PE ratio to 21 times earnings at a current stock price of $53.25, up from 14 times in 2011 and 11.5 for 2010.

Unilever reported areas of success reflected in good growth in some of its products but also expressed concerns about rising input cost of some of the products it manufactures as well as competition from cheaper products. From all indications, management seems to have managed to steer the operations well resulting in improved margins, which moved from 61.8 percent in 2012 first quarter to 63.8 percent in 2013, a continuation of the marked improvement seen for 2012 when the margins for the full year came out at 63.7 percent vs the 59.2 percent enjoyed in 2011.

While cost increase seems to be under control in 2013 for the first quarter, that was not the case in 2012 when selling cost rose by $17 million or 17 percent and administrative cost rose 22 percent, well above the growth in revenues. For the quarter, selling cost rose by 4.8 percent and administrative cost rose 2.7 percent while revenues are up 4.75 percent.

The company boast equity capital of $176 million, has no interest bearing debt and a high current asset ratio with liabilities almost covered twice over.

The stock seems poised to rise further as demand exceeds the supply of the stock on the Trinidad market.

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Low loan demand squeezes BNS TT

June 25, 2013 by

Scotia Bank Trinidad & Tobago hit a new 52 weeks high recently in the price of its stock, so what is happening at the bank to warrant the move in the stock price? Last year the stock was selling at $60.86 in April and on June 24, 2013 it sold at $70.01, a 15 percent rise, yet profits have not been growing all that well. However, the bank raised its dividend from 32 cents per share quarterly last year to 40 cents this year.

Interestingly, the fortune of the Trinidad bank and that of its Jamaican counterpart are tracking similar paths. In Jamaica, profits for Scotia Group have not grown from 2009, almost the same has happened in the Trinidad bank, with no growth since 2011. It looks as if the trend will continue for the Trinidad bank this year as well.

For the six months to April this year, Scotia Trinidad profits just barely budged above the results for the same period in 2012. Net Interest income fell from $462 million in 2012 to $443 million in 2013 but other income rose from $172 million to $224.5 million. The bank was able to keep a lid on expenses which rose from by $24 million to $314 million leaving a profit before tax of $353 6 million some $10 million more than that earned in 2012.

After allowance for taxation of $83 million, net profit rose to $273 million up slightly from $268.7 million in 2012. In the latest April quarter, after tax profits grew by only $1.9 million to reach $128.9 million.

scotiabanklogo150x150The bank seems to have a good grip on loan quality as provisioning bad loans is very low at just $8 million for the six months, an improvement over the $10.5 million in 2012.

Return on Equity | The bank boasts a return on equity of 17.27 percent for the six months period, down from 18.47 percent for the full twelve months for 2012 financial year, which ended in October.

Where is the growth? | For profits to really grow attractively, the bank must grow its loans and assets at a faster pace than it has been doing since 2009. Loans to customers climbed by to $10 billion up from $9.96 billion in October but is flat with April 2012. Deposits did better as these rose to $13.47 billion up from $12.77 billion in April and $12.9 billion in October last year. Loans on the books in October last year contracted compared to the previous year by $700 million or 7 percent. Assets grew by 4 percent in 2012, 5 percent in 2011 and one percent in 2010 down from 11 percent in the previous year. The bank reported of assets of $18.4 billion and equity capital of $3.2 billion.

The bank operates in an economy that is yet to recover from the recession that started in 2008. A lot of the growth a few years prior to 2008 was induced by a major boost in the construction sector, which left newly built units that took awhile to either occupy or sell. This has been a serious drag on the construction sector and by extension, slowed growth in the economy. Without economic growth, bank lending will be slow, which is the main area for growth in income. GDP performance is as follows: 2009, minus 3.3 percent, 2010, 0 percent 2011, minus 1.3 percent, 2012, a positive 1.7 percent. The construction sector fared even worse falling by 7 percent in 2009, 28 percent in 2010 and 8 percent in 2011.

Stock outlook | Against this economic background, it appears that investors cannot expect to see electrifying growth in profits for some time. They also have to be aware that interest rates on savings are at very low levels and any upturn could affect the valuation of stocks on the Trinidad stock market further down the road.

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JSE speaks of 2012 achievements

June 24, 2013 by

Marlene Street Forrest in her overview of the Jamaica Stock Exchange group company’s performance for 2012 and operational plans for 2013 and beyond, stated that although there were economic challenges, the JSE saw an increase in operating income of 93%.

The Company’s operating income moved from $281M in 2011 to $542M in 2012, which contributed to the JSE Group’s net profit increasing from $34M in 2011 to $129M in 2012 an increase of 279% in net profit. Street Forrest told the audience that although most of the Exchange’s revenue came from trading fees she also attributed the increased in profitability to a diversification of the revenue streams for both the company and its subsidiary, which enabled the Exchange to survive in a difficult economic environment.

She indicated that the Exchange achieved a number of other positives during 2012:  Increase in the number of companies on the Junior stock market, sale of member dealer license, progress made towards listing of JSE’s ordinary Shares,  business process improvement, document management and  business continuity plan.

The following goals were set for 2013/2014 period:

  1. Listing of the JSE’s ordinary shares
  2. Concentration of effort at marketing the JSE
  3. Developing markets, new products and services for our customers such as:
      • Trading Government and corporate securities
      • Fixed Income Instruments
      • Depository receipts

At the special board meeting held immediately after the annual general meeting, Messer Donovan Perkins and Allan Lewis were returned as Chairman and Deputy Chairman respectively and Steven Whittingham was elected to the JSE Board subject to the FSC’s approval.

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