After some weeks with no change to the ICTOP10 stocks, this week has four changes following two stocks that rose in price to drop out of the top listings and two significant earnings upgrades.
Caribbean Producers traded 52 weeks’ high during the week following a near US$2 quarterly profit.
Medical Disposables jumped 23 percent this week and 60 percent for the year to date and fell out of the TOP10. The fallout follows strong results to September, with revenues climbing 48.6 percent in the quarter to $936 million and 42 percent for the six months to $1.6 billion with a profit of $21 million in the quarter versus a loss of $6 million in 2020 and $47 million for the half year from a loss of $13 million in 2020. Lasco Distributors replaced the stock after the price fell to $3.25 on Friday. Out of the Main Market comes Sygnus Credit Investments that closed the week with a rise of 5 percent to $18.90, Grace Kennedy with earnings adjusted downward and Proven with a modest price rise.
AMG Packaging with earnings per share upgraded to 30 cents now heads ICTOP10 Junior Market stocks. The company has completed the expansion of its factory, the installation of the new machine expected by January next year. The new machine is expected to reduce operating costs and provide capacity to increase production, using either virgin or recycled paper. In the Main Market, Caribbean Producers with the price up 261 percent for the year to date, received a major earnings upgrade to J$1.65 per share from $1.20, following the release of first quarter results. PanJam Investments and Sagicor Group, with earnings upgraded and Scotia Group with a fall in price to $34.05, return to the ICTOP10.
During the past week, Caribbean Brokers jumped 30 percent to close at $2.32 after hitting $2.96 on Thursday, following the company’s surprise to the market with outstanding results for the nine months to September. Elite Diagnostic rose 15 percent ahead of the release of the first quarter results that show increased sales over the June quarter and ended with a loss of $500,000 in the quarter versus a $10million loss in 2020, but the company generated cash inflows of $27 million for the quarter, slightly more than the dividend they recently paid. General Accident rose 8 percent ahead of quarterly results, Stationery & Office Supplies gained 7 percent, following improved nine months results. In the Main Market, Caribbean Producers jumped 24 percent following a big spike in September quarterly profit, but the stock has much more to do with earnings upgraded to J$1.65 per share for the year. Proven rose 6 percent, the rest were mostly downhill with a 10 percent fall for Guardian Holdings, VM Investments fell 7 percent and Radio Jamaica slipped 8 percent as investors reacted hurriedly to half year results that show the company is on track to reach ICInsider.com forecast of 45 cents per share.
The top three Main Market stocks are Guardian Holdings, Berger Paints and Caribbean Producers. These stocks are projected to gain between 227 to 261 percent expected versus last weeks’ 220 to 230 percent.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market are AMG Packaging, Elite Diagnostic, followed by Lasco Financial. All three can gain between 209 and 253 percent, from 203 percent and 297 percent previously.
This week’s focus: Earnings season is over, with a few more companies to post results. They were many positives to take from the results published so far, with many companies reporting increases for the latest quarter and the year to date. By all account, Caribbean Producers results must be the most outstanding, moving from a loss in 2020 to record first quarter profits and promise of much more. NCB Financial is worth a good look with strong fourth results that reflect improving net interest income and recovery from some poor quarters previously. Significantly, loans, the best indicator for future profits, grew a robust 16 percent for the year. Watch NCB.
The latest results show that there are many undervalued stocks, but investors should focus on these stocks that could deliver good earnings growth in 2022.
The average gains projected for the TOP 10 Junior Market stocks moved from 191 percent last week to 185 percent and Main Market stocks moved from 159 percent to 163 percent.
The Junior Market closed the week with an average PE 13.6 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings and is currently well below the target of 20 and the historical average of 17 for the period to March this year, based on 2020 earnings. The TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of a mere 7.1, with a 53 percent discount to that market’s average PE.
The Junior Market can gain 47 percent to March next year, based on an average PE of 20 and 25 percent based on an average PE of 17. Six stocks represent 15 percent of all Junior Market stocks with positive earnings are trading at or above this level, down from seven last week, indicating that many others will rise towards the 17 mark in the weeks ahead.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market is 15.5, which is 23 percent less than the PE of 19 at the end of March and 29 percent below the target of 20 to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 average PE is 8, representing a 51 percent discount to the market and well below the potential of 20. A total of 12 stocks or 25 percent of the market trade at or above a PE of 19, with most over 20, for an average PE of 25.5, suggesting that the accepted multiple maybe around 25 times the current year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners. Accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.
