ICInsider.com has been reliably advised that the initial public offer (IPO) of shares of Caribbean Cream which opened to the public for subscription on, 25th April 2013 will close today, Tuesday April 30, most likely on the morning, well ahead of the original propose close of 4:30 pm on the 10th May 2013. The early close was subject to the right of the Company to close the subscription list at any time after it opens on 9:00 a.m. on the Opening Date, once the issue is fully subscribed. The shares which were priced at $1 each and meant to raise $75 million did not get the blessing of some brokerage houses as they saw the price as being too high, and in one case, they saw it as too risky based on inconsistent earnings amongst other issues.
JMMB‘s Forecast and Valuation | The company is expected to remain profitable despite the uncertainties in the local economy. The macro-economic instability may subside following an International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement with Jamaica against the background of foreign exchange inflows and a slight improvement in the net international reserves. Further, listing on the Junior Stock Exchange will give the company a tax break for the next ten years, which should boost earnings attributable to shareholders. Revenues will continue to improve over the short term, while the enhancements and expansion in productive capacity of the company’s facility will likely improve its operational efficiency.
Within this context, the net earnings for the 2013 financial year end are expected to reach $29.81M (or EPS of $0.08). Meanwhile, net profits for the 2014 financial year end are projected to reach $40.99M (or EPS of $0.12). At the initial public offering price, the price-to-earnings ratio will be 12.70 times. The average trailing price-to-earnings ratio for the Junior market is approximately 6.41 times (Main market has a P/E of 6.58 times). Further, the average trailing price-to-earnings ratio for manufacturers and retailers listed on the Junior market is roughly 6.75 times (Manufacturing sector on the main market has a P/E of 6.06 times). Therefore, assuming a forward P/E ratio of 8.0 times for the 2014 financial year against the background of improved investor sentiments and stability in the local economy; the intrinsic value for Caribbean Cream Limited’s share based on estimated earnings is approximately $0.94.
The capital base of the company is expected to improve to $195.16M or a book value per share of $0.52 by 2014 financial year end. Assuming a forward P/BV of 1.8 times, the intrinsic value of stock is $0.93.
NCB Capital Markets‘ assessment of the prospectus | “For the nine months to November, the company increased net profit by 103% and boosted its equity base by increasing its share capital. Caribbean Cream Ltd ended the March 2012FY with earnings of $31.36Mn, the highest profit the company has recorded over the past five years and a sizable improvement to the $5Mn loss experienced in the previous year.
Risks:
- Earnings have been extremely volatile over the last 5 years
- Earnings for the nine months period of $23.67 was driven almost entirely by a $21.0Mn revaluation gain following an $11.62Mn profit in the prior year period. This further confirms the earnings volatility
- Company is highly leveraged which could impede its growth prospects
- Current ratio of 0.79X raises liquidity concerns
- Free cash flow is negative which could restrict the company’s ability to follow through on its dividend policy which is to pay out at least 20% of earnings.
There is no clear growth strategy even amidst the company’s rapid expansion As a result of the aforementioned, we are not recommending this investment at this time”.
IC Insider considers that both assessments are way off the mark. Assessment of the company’s performance must be based on pretax profit, not after tax which has varying taxation elements that has nothing to do with operating activities. Profit before tax has been very consistent since the commencement of the company, Earnings for 2013 is more likely to hit 17 per share if the trend in revenues continues after November last year. If the company makes $29.8 million as indicated above in profit for 2013, earnings per share would be 9.8 cents not 8 cents before tax based on the 302.85 million shares issued for the year to February this year. яндекс
The company’s rapid growth has helped to put pressure on working capital. New cash to come from the IPO, will help address some of the issue rightly pointed out above.
Talk Back | What do you think? Was the IPO overvalued?
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