The all Jamaica Composite index is up 6.3 percent for the first two months of 2015 and the JSE index is up 6.2 percent and could be up nearly 40 percent for 2015 if the trend continues. The 2015 increase is the highest since the all Jamaica composite gained 9.4 percent in the first two months.
The JSE select index gain 9.2 percent over the same period. The movements to date translate to close to a 40 percent rise in the market for the year. If the movement was to continue at the same pace for the rest of the year it would take the all Jamaica index to 118,000 points by year-end and the JSE Index to 107,000.
The Jamaica Stock Exchange’s all Jamaica Composite index closed above 89,000 for the first time on Thursday, February 26, since mid-July 2103, and is a little more than 2,300 points from potential resistance at 91,720, the January, 2013 high. The market as measured by the index, has broken out of a channel going back to late last year, see green lines.
The junior market in contrast to the gains in the main market, is up only 1.7 percent.
JSE could gain 40% for 2015
February 28, 2015 by
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[…] JSE closed on Tuesday with sharp gains in the main market indices with the all Jamaica Composite closing over 90,000 points for the first time since July 2013. Helping with the increase was gains […]
maybe the fact that Jamaica Stock Exchange (JSE) new online trading platform will be available to users at the beginning of the second quarter and “more likely within the month of April” – said JSE General Manager Marlene Street Forrest. They expect it will eventually grow trading volumes by 10 per cent.
Exactly what has caused this growth so far. Why would you not expect the stock market to decline as interest rates increase (IMF Policy and BOJ intervention ) when the exchange rate declines to 120.
The increase so far is coming from low values for the vast majority of stocks based on historical PE ratios. PE are an average around 5 and Treasury bills rates have fallen from 9% to 7% since last year. The rate crept up in February but that should not last. even if the FX went to 120 that is a very small moved form 115.5. if it gets to 120 which is unsure for 2014 that will most likely to be in the latter half of 2014 as the flows now are strong with banks selling off surplus, most likely to BOJ. Based on where interest rates are PES should be in the 20s, that may take a few years to happen. end result expect lower inflation and lower interest rates in the months ahead.