The economy’s recovery was highly underestimated by GOJ, with taxes on imports rising 22 percent faster than original estimates; nowhere was the forecast understated than in the tourism sector that has thrown up revenues over 100 percent in the first three months of the current fiscal year.
Faster tourism recovery in 2021 than expected
Up to June data on revenues collected shows that the sector is bouncing back by more than twice what was estimated with Travel Tax the best indicator as to visitor arrivals jumping 137 percent above estimate and accommodation Tax rising 90 percent above forecast to $367 million from a forecast of $194 million. The absolute numbers may not be meaningful in the overall fiscal income, but the percentage change tells a significant recovery story.
Travel Tax was projected to bring in $1.22 billion, actual collection ballooned to $2.9 billion in the three months to June this year, up 137 percent over forecast and is 175 percent higher than the inflows for the three months to June Last year, when just over $1.14 billion was collected with $1.6 collected in April. Elsewhere GCT on imported items surged 27 percent, resulting in $4.9 billion being collected above the forecast of $18.2 billion.
Total tax revenues are up 22 percent ahead of the $107 billion collected to June last year, with GCT on local goods and services up 16 percent and contractors levy up 38 percent, which is in line with increased cement sales for the quarter over that of 2020.
The implications of the sharp increase in the above revenue segment are that the economy is growing faster than the government agencies forecasted for the current fiscal year and, in particular, the extent of the recovery in the tourism sector.
