FX: Thursday, 30th May 2013
JSE: Junior market dominant
Thursday, 30th May 2013 | Trading activity was mostly focused on the junior market as the Lasco stocks all traded at 52 weeks highs for the day. Lasco Financial closed at $10.15 up $1.15 an all time high, 154,320 units traded between $10 and $10.15, manufacturing traded 66,350 units and closed at $15.20 up a $1.20 an all time high and distributors traded at $15.40 an all time high but slipped back to $14.60 at the close, while trading 131,348 units. Blue Power closed at $6.81 up 61 cents for the day when 42,000 shares traded. Dolphin Cove traded 208,868 units at $8.35, Consolidated Bakery saw 975,000 units going through the market for $1.01 each.
The junior market index closed at 761.34 up 13.70 points on the day. Technically, this leg of the junior market movement should take it to 950 points with a second leg to 1,350 or beyond. The second leg may seem like a stretch at first, but with interest rates so low the potential for stocks have gone up, making present PEs much lower than they may first appear to be. The junior market index 50-day moving average has crossed over the 120-day moving index and the current level of the index is well above the 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average is about to cross over the 200-day moving average — all bullish signals.
Investors may have to wait on the next set of company results to see a major push of the index upwards. The three Lasco companies were the main pushers this week. Their last quarter results cannot be expected to push their price much further for now. The stocks are selling at a PE of 10 times the latest earnings, a level that some other junior companies are trading at. Blue Power, Caribbean Cream and Paramount Trading should be releasing full-year results soon and that could help the market move further.
The Main Market | The all Jamaica index closed over 88,000 points when it hit 88,443.97 points, up 494.15 and the highest since January 23 when it closed at 88,841.39. Notwithstanding the index move, the market was pretty subdued today. The major movers in the main market were Grace put on 75 cents, JMMB 49 cents and Kingston Wharves 50 cents.
The JSE market has broken out of the downward channel and is poised for the 105,000, with 130,000 as the next major target.
The market traded 6.2 million shares at a value of $28.8 million as 10 stocks advanced and 6 declined.
FX: More liquidity but rates rise
Wednesday 29 May, 2013 | The level of buying of foreign currency climbed as Wednesday trades topped the high level of Tuesday’s trading. Although the amount bought out-paced the amounts sold, the selling rate for the US dollar inched up for the third day in a row. Buying ($40 million) exceeded selling for the second day in a row and selling was in the mid $30 million range. The US dollar selling rate went up by 8 cents and the pound sterling gained 26 cents while the Canadian dollar fell by 97 cents.
At the same time the central bank launched two new variable rate instruments to manage liquidity effective Friday May 29.
A 184-day Certificate of Deposit, for an unlimited amount. The instrument re-prices quarterly at 0.15 percentage point above the 3-month GOJ Treasury Bill rate existing at the start of each re-pricing period. The initial coupon for the first three months is 6.77 per cent per annum. This offer is extended to all Primary Dealers and commercial banks from 29 May 2013 to 07 June 2013.
An 18-month Certificate of Deposit, for an unlimited amount. The instrument re-prices quarterly at 0.25 percentage point above the 3-month GOJ Treasury Bill rate existing at the start of each re-pricing period. The initial coupon for the first three months is 6.87 per cent per annum. This offer is extended to all Primary Dealers and commercial banks from 29 May 2013 to 07 June 2013.
The move suggests that the central bank is more than comfortable with the existing rate of the Jamaica dollar versus the main intervention currency the US dollar.
TTSE: Still threading water
Wednesday, 29th May 2013 | With a mere 217,710 units trading on the Trinidad & Tobago stock market, today marked another lackluster day of trading continuing the low levels of trades seen since last week. There was trading in 13 securities of which 2 advanced, 3 declined and 8 traded firm.
Only $981,839 was invested in shares on the market as Trinidad Cement dominated trading with 103,048 shares changing hands valued at $97,896. Sagicor Financial Corporation traded 66,132 shares for $417,371. There was minimal trading in the rest of the market with very moderate price changes.
The market is still characterized by the stocks that are in demand but there seems to be very little interest in selling. That is not surprising with interest rates so low in the twin island state. Government of Trinidad & Tobago Treasury bill rates are under 1 percent currently and long term rates less than 2 percent.
JSE: Juniors marching on
Wednesday, 29th May 2013 | The junior market index jumped 4.33 percent today, the most by any of the indices as most of the market focus was on these stocks. With the exception of cross traded index and the US dollar indices, where no price action took place, all other indices moved up on a day of light trading.
The junior market index closed up 31 points and closed at 747.64, not very far from the important 800 level where resistance comes into play. The all Jamaica index closed up 188.48 points to close the day at 87,949.82 on a day when market activity was low and only $8,804,947 worth of stocks traded.
52 weeks High | Six stocks traded at new 52 weeks high during the day with 3 ending up closing at 52 weeks high. Lasco Financial traded as high as $10 but closed at $9.50 which remains the highest closing price. The same went for Jamaican Teas that traded at $4.60 during the day but closed back at the 52 weeks high previously attained this month at $4.40.
Lasco Distributors closed at $15 while gaining $1.30 for the day and Manufacturing put on $1 and closed at $14, Grace Kennedy closed at $60.25 but traded as high as $62 failing to record a new 52 weeks high at the close. Kingston Wharves closed at $7.50 the highest price attained in the last 12 months while gaining 48 cents.
FX: Trading picks up big
Tuesday, 28th May 2013 | The decline in the level of trading was clearly not a sign of things to come. At least that is what Tuesday’s data in the foreign currency market is saying.
Trading picked up markedly from yesterday’s poor showing with US$42 million bought for all currencies and selling of US$37.1 million. Rates inched up a bit today with the US dollar purchased for 80 cents more and sold 2 cents more than on Monday. In the case of the Canadian dollar it was 59 cents more on the buy side and $1.32 on the selling side while the Pound Sterling was fetching 53 cents more on the buy and just 19 cents more on the sell side than on Monday.
The amount of US dollar sold was over US$4 million more than that purchased, while the Canadian sold Can$1.66 million compared to only Can$900,000 bought. Sterling was heavily in favour of buying as nearly a million pounds less was sold than bought.
The highs and lowest rates saw marked moves in Canadian on the buy side climbing $1.17 for the highest rates and down $12.09 on the lowest rate sold. The pound was sold for $1.41 less at the lowest rate.
JSE: 130,000 in 2013?
Tuesday, 29th May 2013 | The market was dominated by Scotia Group with 2.265 million shares trading for value of $49.4 million in a market that traded $59.6 million for the day. The bulk of the trades in this stock were crosses done by Scotia Investments on behalf of clients. The stock jumped $1.24 on the day to close at $21.80. The gain in Scotia, plus a 40 cent increase in Sagicor Life which closed at $8.50, were the main contributors to the 1,452 points rise in the all Jamaica Index which closed above 87,000 points for the first time since February 6th and it now sits just below January 25th close of 87,888.49 on a day when advancing stocks again out paced declining stocks 3 to 1 with 12 stocks climbing versus 4 that fell.
Technically speaking | The junior market is heading to the 800 points level before it meets resistance and closed today at 716.63, so the target may not be that far away. The main market has broken the 85,000 mark decisively and today broke a minor resistance level created this year when the market slipped with the NDX and tax announcements. It now looks as if the market’s next serious resistance level is around 130,000 points. Using the all Jamaica Composite index, even if the market moved at the level it did today, it would take until mid-July to reach it.
The challenges the main market faces is that it requires the big companies to fully participate in any major rally to meet such a target within the time frame. So far, two of the big ones, National Commercial Bank (NCB) and Scotia Group, have not made any great moves to lend confidence that they are about to contribute in any major rally. Based on where money market interest rates are and the low level of stock valuation, this level may only be a temporary stop — if it becomes one at all. An indicator of the near-term future of the market can be measured by the advance decline ratio, as well as the number of stocks closing either bids higher or offers lower than the last sale price. At the end of Tuesday’s trade it was 8 to 1 a positive for continued advances.
Other price movers | Other stocks to post worthwhile moves include Carreras up $2 on Mondays last traded price with the stock closing at $60 with 16,246 units trading between $58 and $60. Jamaica Broilers gained 30 cents to close at $4.90 while trading 86,706 units. All three Lasco companies posted gains in continued response to the 10 for 1 stock split. Distributors gained $1.69 to close at $13.70 with 83,079 shares trading, Financial Services traded only 7,500 units to close $1.20 higher at $9.50 and Manufacturing was up 94 cents on just 5,000 units to close at $13. NCB shed 21 cents, closing at $18.80 as 19,134 units traded. Scotia Investments gained 50 cents with only 1,000 shares changing hands.
TTSE: Bids rise for some stocks
Tuesday, 28th May 2013 | Market activity continues to be subdued in today’s trading on the T&T Stock Exchange with 14 securities trading with 2 advancing, 4 declining and 8 traded firm.
A volume of 460,713 shares crossed the floor of the exchange with a value of $9,072,623. Sagicor Financial Corporation traded 171,175 shares for a value of $1,079,945. There was trading in 146,740 Trinidad Cement valued at $140,420. ANSA McAL traded 100,000 shares with a value of $6,722,000.
All price movements were moderate, more importantly, the number of socks closing with bids above last selling price climbed to 9 from 5 on Monday. Two stocks that closed with higher bids than last sale are Scotia Bank and West Indian Tobacco, two stocks that having been rising for a few weeks.
JSE: Lasco stocks respond to split announcement
Monday, 27th May 2013 | Interest picked up in all three Lasco stocks in response to the proposed 10 for 1 stock split the company announced on Friday after trading.
Lasco Financial traded at $9 shortly after trading started, an all-time high but closed up to $8.30 with 23,836 units traded, still closing at an all-time closing high, nevertheless. Distributors was up $1.51 with 9,748 shares trading at a closing price of $12.01. Manufacturing closed at $12.06 down 44 cents with 5,000 units changing hands. At the close, the bid was for 25,000 units at $12.10 with 43,116 units offered at $16.50.
Carreras dropped $2 to close at $58 as 117,870 units changed ands today. The stock traded as high as $61. Grace continued to move higher with a 29 cents gain, closing at $60.50, NCB closed down $0.99 to $19.01, Scotia Group closed at $20.56 up 9 cents as 85,353 shares traded after the company released better than expected results on Friday after trading had closed. JMMB gained 19 cents to close at $7.99 with 17,000 shares traded.
Trading was moderate with only $12,352,416 being spent on stocks on a day when only the junior market index registered a gain. The advance decline ratio continues to be very positive with 10 stocks advancing to 5 declining.
At the close of trading, there were 10 stocks with bids above the last selling price while there was 1 with the offer below the last selling price.
FX: Monday surprise
Monday, 27th May 2013 | The foreign market flashed a surprise on Monday with moderate trading levels as a mere US$16.4 million in all forms of currencies were purchased while selling was a little more, at US$$19.4 million. Surprisingly as well, the buying rates fell compared to those on Friday and on the sell side, the US dollar just barely moved up by 7 cents while the other two currencies fell.
The highest buying rates for all three currencies fell today compared to a rise for all three on Friday. Noticeably, the US dollar moved down by 65 cents, the Canadian 80 cents and the Pound $1.30. The lowest buying rates were flat to virtually flat. The highest selling rates hardly changed with the exception of the Pound which gained 76 cents, the other lowest sell rates fell marginally.