Junior market stocks climbed 23 percent on average in May as all but 5 stocks increased in price. Three stocks registered price losses and one, C2W, did not trade. Caribbean Cream, newly listed during the month, traded as a high as $1.15 but closed on the last day at the issue price of $1. Lasco Distributors gained 56 percent, Lasco manufacturing gained 46 percent, Lasco Financial Services 32 percent, Blue Power 24 percent and Consolidated Bakery fell 37 percent. A major part of the move was fueled by the announcement last week by Lacso companies that they were calling a meeting of shareholders to consider a 10 for 1 stock split for all three entities that are listed on the junior market.

The main market activity was not as robust as the junior market. In contrast to the 23 percent movement in the junior market index the JSE Market Index advanced by 4,101.54 points (4.68 percent) to close at 87,577.92. The JSE Cross Listed Index advanced by 8.29 points (1.02 percent) to close at 810.31, the JSE Combined Index advanced by 4,806.77 points (5.36 percent) to close at 89,724.01 and The JSE US Equities Index remained unchanged. The main market did have some attractive gains by some of the companies. Good results helped Kingston Wharves climbed 30 percent during the month, Ciboney recorded a gain of 50 percent, Berger Pzints moved up 22 percent, D&G 21 percent, Pan jam 15 percent, JMMB 13 percent as only 4 stocks fell and 21 gained in price.

While the junior market may have lead the main market so far, there are signs that the main market could do well in the weeks ahead as investors reassess the fortunes of some of the listed companies.

Friday, 31st May 2013 | The stock market had one of the most active days with 33 stocks trading for a volume of 24,880,202 units with a value of $53,568,552. Although 10 stocks advanced in price with 6 declining, all indices fell marginally by less than 10 points.

Consolidated Bakeries had one trade which amounted to 18.3 million units at $1.01 each. This was a cross done by Stocks & Securities on behalf of clients. Two of the Lasco companies responded to the release of audited full year results with Lasco Manufacturing gaining 19 cents to close at $15.39 and Distributors gained 40 cents to close up at $15.

Results impact | Lasco Financial Services which released results after trading closed lost 35 cents to close the day at $9.80. The company reported earnings of $1.33, up strongly on the 83 cents earned in 2012. This should be enough to push the stock up next week.

Access Financial traded at an all-time high of $8 with 65,151 units changing hands. Carreras gained 45 cents to close at $60.45 with 9,324 units trading. The company had reported slight improvement in earnings from ongoing business of $6.14 versus $5.35 in 2012.

JMMB put on 50 cents while trading 1,169,369 units valued at $10.54 million. The stock responded to full year results to March with earnings of $2.35 per share compared to $1.55 in the previous year. The group’s earnings were boosted by a one-off gain of $2 billion booked when it acquired the shares of Capital & Credit Group last year, the effect of this was reduced by $750 million loss when government bonds were swapped out in February this year as well as $181 million written off for impairment to financial and intangible assets. Without these charges earnings would have been up to approximately $1.65 per share. In 2012 the group had picked up a large one-off gain from trading in certain security that was not expected to recur.

Late Move | Late in trading, National Commercial Bank gained $2 to close at $21, Pan Jam posted a $2 gain on to close at $57 with just 4,980 units trading. Scotia Group shed 74 cents to close at $21.06 after it traded as high as $22 with 306,220 units trading for $6.48 million. Scotia Investments lost 42 cents to close at $26.48 with 7,000 shares trading. Supreme Ventures traded 2.76 million units between $2.90 and $3 but closed at $3. in the junior market, newly listed Caribbean Creams traded 1.12 million units between a $1 and $1.10 and closed at $1, the IPO price.

Stocks that could move | At the close, 9 stocks had bids that were higher than the last selling price and there were 3 offers below the last selling price. Lasco Manufacturing closed at a 52 weeks high, Access Financial closed at an all time high. Kingston Wharves traded at a 52 weeks high of $8.50 but closed lower than yesterday’s price.

Thursday, 30th May 2013 | Trading activity was mostly focused on the junior market as the Lasco stocks all traded at 52 weeks highs for the day. Lasco Financial closed at $10.15 up $1.15 an all time high, 154,320 units traded between $10 and $10.15, manufacturing traded 66,350 units and closed at $15.20 up a $1.20 an all time high and distributors traded at $15.40 an all time high but slipped back to $14.60 at the close, while trading 131,348 units. Blue Power closed at $6.81 up 61 cents for the day when 42,000 shares traded. Dolphin Cove traded 208,868 units at $8.35, Consolidated Bakery saw 975,000 units going through the market for $1.01 each.

The junior market index closed at 761.34 up 13.70 points on the day. Technically, this leg of the junior market movement should take it to 950 points with a second leg to 1,350 or beyond. The second leg may seem like a stretch at first, but with interest rates so low the potential for stocks have gone up, making present PEs much lower than they may first appear to be. The junior market index 50-day moving average has crossed over the 120-day moving index and the current level of the index is well above the 200-day moving average. The 50-day moving average is about to cross over the 200-day moving average — all bullish signals.

Investors may have to wait on the next set of company results to see a major push of the index upwards. The three Lasco companies were the main pushers this week. Their last quarter results cannot be expected to push their price much further for now. The stocks are selling at a PE of 10 times the latest earnings, a level that some other junior companies are trading at. Blue Power, Caribbean Cream and Paramount Trading should be releasing full-year results soon and that could help the market move further.

The Main Market | The all Jamaica index closed over 88,000 points when it hit 88,443.97 points, up 494.15 and the highest since January 23  when it closed at  88,841.39. Notwithstanding the index move, the market was pretty subdued today.  The major movers in the main market were Grace put on 75 cents, JMMB 49 cents and Kingston Wharves 50 cents.

The JSE market has broken out of the downward channel and is poised for the 105,000, with 130,000 as the next major target.

The market traded 6.2 million shares at a value of $28.8 million as 10 stocks advanced and 6 declined.

Wednesday, 29th May 2013 | The junior market index jumped 4.33 percent today, the most by any of the indices as most of the market focus was on these stocks. With the exception of cross traded index and the US dollar indices, where no price action took place, all other indices moved up on a day of light trading.

The junior market index closed up 31 points and closed at 747.64, not very far from the important 800 level where resistance comes into play. The all Jamaica index closed up 188.48 points to close the day at 87,949.82 on a day when market activity was low and only $8,804,947 worth of stocks traded.

52 weeks High | Six stocks traded at new 52 weeks high during the day with 3 ending up closing at 52 weeks high. Lasco Financial traded as high as $10 but closed at $9.50 which remains the highest closing price. The same went for Jamaican Teas that traded at $4.60 during the day but closed back at the 52 weeks high previously attained this month at $4.40.

Lasco Distributors closed at $15 while gaining $1.30 for the day and Manufacturing put on $1 and closed at $14, Grace Kennedy closed at $60.25 but traded as high as $62 failing to record a new 52 weeks high at the close. Kingston Wharves closed at $7.50 the highest price attained in the last 12 months while gaining 48 cents.

Tuesday, 29th May 2013 | The market was dominated by Scotia Group with 2.265 million shares trading for value of $49.4 million in a market that traded $59.6 million for the day. The bulk of the trades in this stock were crosses done by Scotia Investments on behalf of clients. The stock jumped $1.24 on the day to close at $21.80. The gain in Scotia, plus a 40 cent increase in Sagicor Life which closed at $8.50, were the main contributors to the 1,452 points rise in the all Jamaica Index which closed above 87,000 points for the first time since February 6^th and it now sits just below January 25^th close of 87,888.49 on a day when advancing stocks again out paced declining stocks 3 to 1 with 12 stocks climbing versus 4 that fell.

Technically speaking | The junior market is heading to the 800 points level before it meets resistance and closed today at 716.63, so the target may not be that far away. The main market has broken the 85,000 mark decisively and today broke a minor resistance level created this year when the market slipped with the NDX and tax announcements. It now looks as if the market’s next serious resistance level is around 130,000 points. Using the all Jamaica Composite index, even if the market moved at the level it did today, it would take until mid-July to reach it.

The challenges the main market faces is that it requires the big companies to fully participate in any major rally to meet such a target within the time frame. So far, two of the big ones, National Commercial Bank (NCB) and Scotia Group, have not made any great moves to lend confidence that they are about to contribute in any major rally. Based on where money market interest rates are and the low level of stock valuation, this level may only be a temporary stop — if it becomes one at all. An indicator of the near-term future of the market can be measured by the advance decline ratio, as well as the number of stocks closing either  bids higher or offers lower than the last sale price. At the end of Tuesday’s trade it was 8 to 1 a positive for continued advances.

Other price movers | Other stocks to post worthwhile moves include Carreras up $2 on Mondays last traded price with the stock closing at $60 with 16,246 units trading between $58 and $60. Jamaica Broilers gained 30 cents to close at $4.90 while trading 86,706 units. All three Lasco companies posted gains in continued response to the 10 for 1 stock split. Distributors gained $1.69 to close at $13.70 with 83,079 shares trading, Financial Services traded only 7,500 units to close $1.20 higher at $9.50 and Manufacturing was up 94 cents on just 5,000 units to close at $13. NCB shed 21 cents, closing at $18.80 as 19,134 units traded. Scotia Investments gained 50 cents with only 1,000 shares changing hands.