Jamaican stocks set for 2020 growth

The Jamaica Stock Exchange saw divergent movement in the three markets it operates, in 2019. While the major focus was on the Main Market performance with 34 percent gain, the US dollar market actually outdid it with gains of 40 percent but the Junior Market was nowhere to be found.

Almost clear skies for the Jamaica Stock Exchange

The Junior Market had its worse performance in three years, with an increase of just 3.4 percent. Last year was the fifth year of annual gains for the Jamaica Stock Exchange. In the past, the five-year mark meant that the market had peaked and was due for a major correction. Technical and fundamental indicators are not pointing in this direction currently.
Technically, the Main Market has 900,000 plus points on its radar, 60 percent away for the All Jamaica Composite index from the start of the year. The market is being steered by an upward sloping support line. There is no indication of any major resistance until it passes the 900,000 points mark.
The PE for the Main Market based on 2020 earnings is down to 16 times, 25 percent below the 2019 PE at the end of 2019 of 20.  NCB Financial performance is going be crucial to the performance of the market index as it controls so much of the market capitalization. In the end, the index is just a barometer of the movement in the value of all the companies listed and investors would be well advised to focus on the quality of stocks that will provide good returns. IC Insider.com forecast shows 13 to 15 companies that could double in price during the next 15 months in the Main Market starting in January.
The Junior Market is poised to move much higher on improved profits for 2019 and 2020, even as some 2019 results were disappointing and did not stimulate investors to acquire these stocks in increasing volumes with many of them still undervalued relative to values in the Main market. Improvement in profitability will convince investors that there are excellent values in this segment of the market.
There are 28 Junior Market stocks with the potential to deliver gains between 100 to 600 percent in 2020 and up to March 2021. The major reason for the large group is the lack of performance in the market in 2019. Investors placed a major focus on the Main Market, driving the PE ration to 21 compared to 14 for the Junior Market. At the end of 2018, both markets were trading around 17 times 2018 earnings. This divergence, suggests that there are good opportunities to profit from in 2020, as investors move to take advantage of undervalued stocks when
The forecast assumes that economic growth will continue during the year around the 2 percent level and that interest rates will remain close to current levels with Treasury bills rates staying under 2 percent. A major factor, that is important in viewing the market is the number of companies that are enjoying strong growth in sales as well as those that are expanding or likely to do so. Such developments bode well for major gains in profit going forward.
Investors should not ignore companies that performed poorly in 2019 but could enjoy a strong turnaround in 2020. The Investors’ Choice 80:20 rule based on 40 years of data, shows more stocks rising form the bottom 10 worse performers in a year and surge into the TOP 10 the following year, while an average of 80 percent of those in the TOP 10 fail to repeat in the following year and since 2016 the average is just one.
With the likelihood of twenty IPOs planned for 2020, investors can look for a series of disruptions in the upward trajectory of the market. For the past two years, there were signs that on each occasion of popular initial public offers, prices of existing stocks came under pressure.  The most recent were the three issues for 2020 to date. This phenomenon is most pronounced in the Junior Market that is far less liquid than the Main Market. The pullback of prices caused by the sell-off to fund IPOs also provides opportunities for investors who may want to pick up existing listed stocks at bargain prices.