JSE: Market cooled but will it last?

Friday, 26th 2013 | The market cooled off today as only the stocks of 21 companies traded, resulting in a volume of 5,305,431 valued at $35.1 million. There were 8 stocks advancing and 6 declining. The prices of two stocks reached all-time highs and two others made a 52 weeks high by the end of the day.

Main Market trades of note| The all Jamaica Index shed 650.92 points to close at 87,772.15 and the JSE market index fell by 369.94 to close at 86,687.02.

Carreras traded 152,000 shares as the price closed at $52, off 25 cents from the last traded price on Thursday. Jamaica Money Market Brokers (JMMB) traded 1 million shares and lost 49 cents to close at $8 after trading as high as $8.50. National Commercial Bank after posting 92 cents earnings for the June quarter and $2.76 for the fiscal year to date, traded only 31,600 units to close at $19.56 after trading up to $20. Currently, the supply of this stock is limited. Pan Jamaican Investment Trust traded 19,600 units at $52, up 49 cents for the day. Scotia Group (SGJ) with a volume of 135,000 shares, traded between $21.11 and $21.50, the stock closed at $21.20 with no change in the last selling price. Supreme Ventures climbed 9 cents to $3.10, a 52 weeks high, with 176,000 shares trading.

The Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares, the subject of an initial Public offering (IPO) in early July, was listed on Tuesday, is yet to find a compromise price for a willing buyer or seller. The stock closed the week with a bid of $3 for 97,000 shares and an offer at $3.45 by the same broker, Stocks & Securities the sponsoring broker for the IPO, which was priced at $2.85.

Junior market | 8 stocks in the junior market traded with the index moving up by 7.52 points to 823.77. The coming week could be telling for this market with the three Lasco companies releasing results on Monday. Access Financial Services gained 40 cents as 2,100 units changed hands to close at an all-time high of $9. AMG Packaging lost 25 cents while trading 3,900 units to close at $4. Dolphin Cove traded 20,500 units to close at a 52 weeks high of $9.10, gaining 40 cents for the day.  Lasco Financial moved up to an all-time high of $1.60, gaining 15 cents for the day while trading 380,206 shares. At the close, there was 1 million shares on offer at $1.60. Lasco Manufacturing traded 788,400 shares lost 10 cents to close at $1.60.

Proven Investment Preference shares traded 2.2 million units valued at $11.38 million, while there was no trading in the ordinary shares which are quoted in US dollars.

Market intelligence | Earnings season has begun for the second quarter results and are likely to impact trading over the next few weeks and could well impact stocks for the rest of the year.

jse_logo150x150Results dates | On Thursday, National Commercial Bank (NCB) released results that could encourage buying of the stock. On Friday Mayberry released their’s, after trading closed. Monday is the day all three Lasco companies are expected to release figures for the first quarter. These are important as they will send a message about likely 2014 earnings since there have been no new profit figures to positively guide investors for the new fiscal year about valuation of the stocks. Sagicor Investments and Grace Kennedy are also expected to release their results by the end of the coming week.

Cable & Wireless remains under pressure with offers in excess of 28.7 million shares at 15 cents overwhelming what little demand there is for the stock. The demand has not changed much for the last three weeks as the supply is barely being eaten away. Desnoes & Geddes is stuck for the time between $4.65, where there are a few good bids, and $5.18 where a 1 million shares are on offer. Offers below $5.50 seems to have dried up for Jamaica Broilers; bidders who exposed their hands are not yet very aggressive, with bids mostly below $4.50. There are however, a few offers between $7.67 and $5.40, the next is at $13.50 for 800,000 units.

JMMB supply and demand seem fluid presently with some selling at $9 and under. At the end of trade on Friday, there were only 428,000 units of NCB on offer between $20.99 and $35 against 1.3 million units of bids from a low of $10 to $19.55. A bid for 4,549,573 Radio Jamaica shares at $1.23 remains in the system with very moderate supply. Supply of Sagicor Life is just over 300,000 units up to $15, demand is over 2 million above $7, SGJ has 876,000 shares on offer between $21.20 to $21.25 and $33, and demand for 1.17 million units from $14 to $21.12. Scotia Investment has limited demand and a few more offers close to the trading price but there are 6 million units on offer at $30. Supreme Ventures has only two offers amounting 22,400 units and good demand from $2.75 to $3. Carreras still has selling but there are still investors prepared to buy above $50 but those could be taken out in the coming week depending on exactly how much selling there still is.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows that bids for 5 stocks were higher with 2 stocks having offers lower than their last selling price, thus keeping the bullish bias in place.

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JSE: Another big trading day

Thursday, 25th July 2013 | It was another big day on the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Thursday as stocks of 29 companies traded of which 10 stocks advanced and 10 declined as focus continued in main market shares and the juniors played second fiddle on a day when 14 million shares traded valued at $419 million.

The junior market index along with the US dollar index declined marginally and the main market and all Jamaica indices put on a few hundred points.

Trades of note Main Market | The all Jamaica Index gained 318.84 points to close at 88,373.07 and the JSE market index moved up by 181.21 to close at 87,056.96.

The major volume of shares traded include Carreras 6,429,852 for a value of $335,630,891which closed at $52.25, Desnoes & Geddes 1,555,217 valued at $7,362,606 with a closing price of $4.70, Gleaner Company 375,398 costing $1.18 with a value of $442,970, Grace Kennedy 150,694 valued at $8,453,933, Jamaica Broilers Group 1,701,351 amounting to $8,572,488, Jamaica Money Market 711,882 at a value of $6,041,743, National Commercial Bank 368,314 at $19.51 valued at $7,221,190, Scotia Group 1,575,654 valued for $34,255,608 closing at $21.20, off 30 cents, Scotia Investments 247,115 closing price $26.5 and valued $6,538,197, Jamaica Producers with 105,483 at $19.35 costing $2,035,822.

Hardware & Lumber traded 75,000 and the stock closed at a 52 weeks high of $4.60 an increase of 60 cents in response to the good six months results. Pan Jam lost 49 cents to close at $51.51 on small volume, Pulse Investments closed at 94 cents, a 52 weeks low as it dropped 66 cents.

Junior market | Stocks of 8 junior market companies traded on Thursday with moderate volumes and price changes. Lasco Distributors traded 127,650 shares valued at $192,752 and closed at $1.51 down 9 cents, Lasco Financial traded 149,500 shares valued at $214,648 and dropped 5 cents to close at $1.45.

Lasco Manufacturing traded 118,900 shares valued at $202,130 and closed up a cent at $1.70, Caribbean Producers traded 45,000 units at $2.05, and Access Financial Services traded 11,000 units at $8.50. KLE Group traded down again to a low of $2.29 down 31 cents for the day. The stock is now down 36% percent from the IPO price of $3.60.

Proven Investment Preference shares traded a small volume of 4,200 shares and the price held firm.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer market sentiment indicator shows that bids for 9 stocks were higher with none having offer that was lower than their last selling price

JSE: Carreras’ day but Lasco Financial now up 200%

Wednesday, 24th July 2013 | Scotia Investments did some big trades on Wednesday in Carreras Limited as the brokerage house executed three large trades in the stock on behalf of clients. The first lot of 3,907,474 at $52.25 valued at $204,165,517, the second lot of 3,792,847 also at $52.25 valued at $198,176,256 and 2,347,297 units at $52.25 with a value of $122,646,268.

The stock lost 26 cents in trading. The Carreras’ trades were by far the largest on a day when 18.85 million units traded with a value of $613.65 million on the market. In spite of the negative news about the smoking ban and its impact on the company’s profits, there are still bids buy the stock at close to today’s selling price and about 350,000 units have bids from $51 and above. The total trading in Carreras shares amounted to 10.159 million units at a value of $520.8 million.

Advancing stocks climbed to 14 versus 6 that declined, 11 had no price change at the end of the day. In spite of the positive advance decline ratio the indices all declined except the US dollar index which rose marginally.

Main Market | The all Jamaica Index fell 101 points to close at 88,054 and the main market index fell 57.40 points to close at 86,875.75.

jse_logo150x150Scotia Investments was also the dominant broker in the trading of National Commercial Bank stock as $23.7 million was expended on the trading of 1.2 million shares as the stock closed at $19.50. They were also the major traders in Scotia Group which had trading in 890,000 shares valued at $19 million as the stock closed at $21.50 and gained 30 cents for the day. Jamaica Broilers had a big day, posting a volume of 3.57 million units at a value of $17.8 million as Scotia Investments played a big role in trading the stock. Jamaica Producers traded 158,600 units and closed at $19.20 up 19 cents. Pan Jam gained 50 cents on small volume to close at $52. Sagicor Investments gained $1.97 and closed at $18.50 as 5,000 shares traded, Scotia Investments gained 49 cents in continuation of the see sawing between $26 were there is demand ad $26.50, as 33,947 shares changed hands. Hardware and Lumber stock responded to the improved results released yesterday. In today’s trading the stock closed at $4 with 5,000 units trading but bids have now come in where there were none before for days.

Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares have still not traded after two days of listing but there is a bid of $3 posted for just over 97,000 units which is above the issue price of $2.85.

Proven Investment ordinary shares which are quoted in US dollars traded  1.2 million units valued at US$140,640, the stock lost a fraction of a cent to close at 11.72 US cents.

Junior market | 11 stocks in the junior market traded with Lasco financial reaching a new all-time high at $1.50, the closing price as 203,000 units traded. At the end of December last year, the stock was trading at $4.90 or 49 cents based on the stock split hence the price has gained more than 200 percent in the process.  Lasco Distributors traded 205,600 units to close at $1.42 but traded as high as $1.53 on the day, Lasco Manufacturing chipped in with 243,899 units to close at $1.69 down from $1.80 on Tuesday. Mayberry bought out the 100,000 Blue Power stocks that were on offer at $10.50 for in house purposes, the stock is up 47 cents on the day, leaving only two small offers at $11 and $13.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer market sentiment indicator shows that bids for 6 stocks were higher with 2 stocks having offers lower than their last selling price.

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JSE: Main market in focus

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Tuesday, 23 July 3013 | Trading levels have slowed in the junior market as the three Lasco companies that have had frenetic trading since the beginning of June have seen demand taper down after a 10 for one stock split. Trading on the market took place in 26 companies as 2.5 million units traded at a value of $23 million on a day when 8 stocks advanced to 4 declining with 14 traded without a change in price at the end of the trading session.

Junior Market | Nine stocks traded in the junior market, Lasco Financial Services closed at a new all-time high of $1.46 as only 62,700 shares traded. Lasco Distributors traded 413,120 shares and closed at $1.52, up 10 cents and Manufacturing closed at $1.80 up 17 cents with 180,178 units. Paramount traded 119,412 units at $3.30 with no change in the price.

Carreras traded 100,650 units valued at $5.3 million as the stock closed at $52.51, the same closing price as Monday. Grace had 90,530 units changing hands at a value of $5 million, closing at $56. JMMB closed up 49 cents at $8.50 with 407,496 units and absorbed $3.46 million in the process. Jamaica Producers lost 99 cents to close at $19.01 with just over 9,000 units traded. National Commercial Bank traded 39,170 units, closed up 45 cents at $19.50. Sagicor Life chipped in with 56,000 units, all traded at $9, the same price as the close on Monday. Scotia Group traded 93,000 units at $21.20 costing $2 million.

IPO listing | Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares which was listed today, did not trade but the stock had bids for 149,000 at the offer price of $2.85 and an offer at $3.26 to sell 20,000.

The bid offer indicator has just one stock with a bid higher than the last selling price and 2 lower.

Company results | The quality of company results will have a telling effect on the market going forward. At the end of today’s trading Hardware & Lumber released impressive profits which are up strongly over 2012 as well as up strongly on the first quarter of this year. The improvement should encourage more interest in the stock.

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JSE: Attention shifts to main market

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | In today’s activity on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, stocks of 26 companies traded, accounting for 4.7 million units, valued at $39 million. The advance decline ratio remained tilted in favour of declining stocks with 11 declining and 5 advancing as all the major indices with trades declined marginally by less than 35 points.

Two stocks closed at 52 weeks high with one of them at a record new closing high. Attention in the market switched from the juniors to the main market, as the bulk of activity took place in this segment of the market.

Trades of note Main Market | Carreras traded 75,871 units valued at $4 million between $52.81 and the closing price of $52.51, losing 34 cents on the day, the stock has found some support at this level. Gleaner Company traded 1,069,000 shares at $1.16 the same price as Friday. Grace Kennedy traded 83,670 units at $56 valued at $4.7 million. Jamaica Money Market traded 809,500 units between $8.50 and $8 as the stock closed at $8.01, Seprod traded 1.049 million shares and closed at $14.75 losing 25 cents for the day.

Junior market | 9 junior market stocks traded as the price of 4 fell to 1 increase. Activity was low keyed as seen by the levels of trading. Lasco Manufacturing was the volume leader in the segment but it only traded 259,420 units valued at $437,700, Lasco Distributors was the second largest trade with 237,000. KLE Group chipped in with 100,000 units at $2.60. Price changes were moderate in this segment of the market. Lasco Financial closed at a new all-time high at $1.42, up 3 cents with only 10,800 shares trading.

Proven Investment Preference shares traded 659,000 units valued at $3.35 million as there seems to be continued interest in these shares.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer market sentiment indicator shows that bids for 5 stocks were higher with 1 stock having offers lower than their last selling price.

IPO: Epply closes, JSE to trade

EPPLEY offer closes early | The Eppley Initial Public Offer (IPO) which opened today, Monday July 22, 2013 at 9:00, has been closed with the issue said to be oversubscribed. Eppley Limited opened the invitation for subscription for 218,999 shares at a price of $377 per share. PROVEN Wealth, acting as arrangers and Lead Brokers of the offering, announced an early closure of the offer effective at 4:00 p.m., way ahead of the scheduled close on Monday July 29, 2013 at 4:00 p.m.

PROVEN Wealth President & CEO Chorvelle Johnson noted that she is “pleased with the level of subscription. The response to the offer has been very good with the issue being oversubscribed and hence the early closure.” The company is set to announce the basis of allotment within 3 business days.

JSE to start trading on Tuesday | The Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary shares which were offered public in a recent IPO at $2.85 per share and was oversubscribed, will start trading on Tuesday. The listing brings to 52 the number of companies with ordinary shares on the exchange. Eppley which was fully taken up will bring that number to 53 companies when it starts trading in a few weeks’ time.

First Citizens | In the meantime word out of Trinidad is that First Citizens is attracting great interest but there is no indication that the $1 billion IPO is yet fully subscribed. The issue is scheduled to close on 9th August.

Watching and rating

Monday, 22nd July 2013 | We’ll be watching to see what evolves during this week’s trading as we head into a period when companies start to release second quarter results. Our IC Insider “peep” behind the scenes, speaks a possible bull run since we see many instances where there’s a limited supply of stocks. Want to know more about the current demand and supply in the JSE? Read our market report Demand and supply tug of war.

Buy Rated Stock | Proven Wealth is new to our Buy Rated list. Before you buy, read our post, FX gains & securities boost Proven dated 4th June 2013, for an in-depth report of the company’s last reported results.

To search for published reports for a Buy Rated stock on IC Insider, please use ‘Search IC Insider’ and enter the company name, in full or in part.

Better than a broker’s ‘buy’ recommendation, IC Insider has no vested interest in any stock transaction or conflict of interest. Our research is backed by published reports of the company’s performance and insights of future earnings that can be found at ICInsider.com. The final decision to buy, or not, is your personal choice.

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Demand and supply tug of war

Historically, July has been the month when the local stock market starts to look up. It is also the time of year when investors tend to be on holidays, thus reducing market activity. Additionally, we need to bear in mind that companies will start to release second quarter results which could move prices. Hence, what may be reflected by the movement in stock prices and market indices may be deceptive when gleaning market sentiments.

In dominoes they say that “a peep is better than a read” and this applies to the stock market as well, especially in the short run. Taking a “peep” behind the scenes, we see many cases where the supply of stocks has declined sharply. In several cases there is really no serious supply near to current prices to meet any increase in demand without prices rising sharply. We read that as a bullish signal coming from the market at this time.

jse_logo150x150Demand & supply | There are 7 serious buyers for Blue Power between $9.18 and 10.02 with a total demand of 84,000 shares and there are two sellers with 100,000 on offer at $10.50 and 10,000 at $13. AMG Packaging is in demand at $4.25 but there is virtually no current supply. Caribbean Cream has no demand currently but supply starts at $1.15 with 100,000 units. Dolphin Cove has virtually no supply currently with less than 20,000 units on offer. Jamaican Teas supply is very low with two sellers offering 55,000 units at $5.50 and demand is rising. Lasco Distributors, which should be releasing its first quarter results on the 29th of July along with the other two companies, has demand at $1.40 but the supply is at $1.60 up to $1.80. Lasco Financial has no active supply while the demand seems to have pulled back somewhat. Lasco Manufacturing with demand at $1.65 has no supply at the end of trading. Paramount Trading has had no supply for several days.

Cable & Wireless still has good supply at 15 cents with nearly 29 million units without any serious demand coming in to meet it. The sellers seem content to allow small buying to nimble away at the supply at 14 or 15 cents. Grace remains under pressure as demand is at $50, but in limited quantity as most of whatever demand is there is around $40. Carreras has slipped sharply from its recent highs and while there is quite some demand around $50-52 buyers, have been pulling back as supply continues to push prices lower. Troubled Caribbean Cement came in for demand this week and supply has receded and is now above $2. Desnoes and Geddes has buying at $4.65- 4.70 and supply at $5.18 but there are not a lot of sellers. Selling in Jamaica Broilers is moderate but buying is not aggressive. JMMB has demand at $8 but supply is way up at $8.80 but there is not much until $10.50. Jamaica Producers has very limited supply currently. Mayberry’s selling is not heavy but demand is just from Mayberry, with no other bid in place, which has been the case for several days.

National Commercial Bank has good buying for the stock between $18.50-19 and selling is very light. Selling for Pan Jam is very light.  Radio Jamaica has buying for 4.7 million shares with the closing bid at $1.23. Sagicor Life has buying around $9 but sellers are at a much higher prices. Scotia Group has good demand around $21 but sellers are much higher for the time being. Scotia Investments has some demand at $26 but mostly from one buyer with a seller supply at $30. Seprod has neither, much demand or supply, in the market and Supreme Ventures has virtually no supply.

We’ll be watching how JSE trading unfolds over the upcoming weeks starting with the Stocks to Watch as of Monday, 22nd July 2013.

JSE: Red day on market

Friday, 19th July 2013 | The last day of the week saw a decline in all the indices and the gains made in the last two days were completely wiped out. More than 9.3 million shares valued at $23.37 million changed hands. Seven million Caribbean Cream stock traded with Stocks & Securities picking up the vast majority for in house purposes and Mayberry Investment doing most of the selling to them.

The advance decline ratio turned decisively negative as 12 stocks declined while only 4 advanced. All the indices moved down sharply with the exception of the junior market index that declined by just over a point and the US dollar index and the cross listed that had no trades.

Main market trades of note | The all Jamaica Index lost 1,105.03 points to close at 87,481.85 and the JSE market index fell by 627.68 to close at 86,550.40.

The sell-off continued in Carreras with 50,000 units valued at $2.64 million trading between $53.50 and the closing price of $52.85. Caribbean Cement, which has been showing more demand, traded 355,000 units at $1 each. Grace Kennedy traded 30,100 shares at a value of $1.69 million with all being traded at $56 while losing $1. Jamaica Money Market Brokers (JMMB) traded 15,314 units between $8.80 and the closing price of $8.02 was down 78 cents from the opening price. Jamaica Producers stock closed at $20 up 50 cents with only 1,200 shares trading. National Commercial Bank traded 129,468 shares valued at $2.52 million and closed at $19.30, down 20 cents. Radio Jamaica traded 186,243 units as investors sold to the buyer with 4.7 million shares that was on the bid at $1.30 and Scotia Group traded 190,226 units valued at $4 million to close at $21.10, the same at the last traded price on Thursday. Scotia Investments fell back by 69 cents to close at $26.01 with 4,565 units trading.

Junior market | 8 stocks in the junior market traded as 2 stocks increased and 5 declined. The dominant trader, Caribbean Cream’s 7 million shares traded at a value of $7.2 million, pulling the price down by 3 cents as the stock closed at $1.03. AMG Packaging traded 221,000 shares valued at $939,265 and gained a cent. Lasco Manufacturing traded 352,190 units and closed at $1.66, Lasco Distributors traded 168,600 to close at $1.50 and Lasco Financial traded 84,350 units to close at $1.40.

Proven Investment Preference shares traded 439,730 units valued at $2.24 million at the same price as the day before of $5.09.

IC bid-offer Indicator | At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows that bids for 4 stocks were higher with 1 having the offer that was lower than their last selling price.

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JSE: Ban hitting investors harder than smokers

Thursday, 18th July 2013 | The smoking ban may well save some lives but it could cause some pensioners theirs. Since the Minister of Health announced the ban, Carreras’ stock, which was at $60, has declined to $53 and looks as if it could go lower as investors exit the stock in fear of profits dropping sharply as the ban takes a toll on demand for the product.

The move has taken $3.5 billion off the value of the shares so far. Shareholders include are pensioners, pension funds and other pooled funds that investors look to for income. The stock traded more than 182,000 units closing down by 75 cents to $53 in today’s trading. There are good bids at $52.50 that could lend support for a while depending on the strength of selling that may still come.

Trading activity was slow for most of the day except for the Lasco stocks, Caribbean Creams and Caribbean Producers and a few others. Activity picked up in the last leg with some upward prices and increased bids for some of the stocks that are in demand.

Stocks of 28 companies traded 6.99 million units valued at $27.2 million as 2 stocks reached an all-time high and one closed at a 52 weeks low and one at a 52 weeks high at the end of trading. The advance decline ratio turned decisively positive as 12 stocks advanced and 6 declined, as the indices with active trades all gained.

Trades of note Main Market | The all Jamaica Index gained 837.12 points to close at 88,586.88, the JSE market index was up by 475.50 to close at 87.178.11.

Grace Kennedy lost $1 to close at $57 in trading 22,451 shares, a continuation of recent weakness in the stock as the company’s stock buyback seems not to be active. Jamaica Money Market put on 30 cents to close at $8.80 with 151,000 units trading.  Sagicor Life traded 21,820 shares at $9, the stock closed up by 45 cents, National Commercial Bank (NCB) closed up 40 cents to $19.50 while trading just 7,000 shares, importantly there was 73,000 units on the bid of $19.50 at the end of trading. The NCB move could well be linked with the expectation that the company will be releasing results and disclosing dividends on Thursday next week. Sagicor Investments traded down $1 to $17 but only traded 2,298 shares, Scotia Investments traded up 69 cents on 1,900 units and closed at $26.70. Barita’s 100 shares traded and pulled the stock down to a 52 weeks low at $2.30. At the end, the bid was at $2.50 for a small quantity.

Junior market | Stocks of nine companies traded in the junior market as the index climbed by 12.87 points to 816.26. Caribbean Cream traded 1 million shares and closed down firm at $1.06. Caribbean Producers traded 520,000 shares and closed up 7 cents at $2.10. General Accident traded 142,500 shares and closed down at $2 up 5 cents and Jamaican Teas saw buying coming in, as stock traded 120,000 shares and closed 28 cents better, at $4.28. Lasco Distributors traded 2.79 million shares and closed up 5 cents to $1.50 with Mayberry being the broker buying the bulk of them, the main selling broker was Scotia Investments. Lasco Financial traded at an all-time high of $1.45 but gave up some, as it closed at $1.39 while trading 500,946 units. Lasco Manufacturing traded 319,103 shares and dropped 2 cents to $1.68. Blue Power traded 14,390 shares and dropping 26 cents and closed at $10.04. Dolphin Cove closed at all-time high of $8.70.

Proven Investment Preference shares traded 1.06 million units valued at $5.4 million while there was no trading in the ordinary shares which are quoted in US dollars. At the close there was no stock on offer.

IC bid-offer Indicator | The Investor’s Choice bid-offer market indicator, shows that bids for 7 stocks were higher with 1 stock having an offer lower than their last selling price.

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