FX: Monday, 13th May 2013

Robust FX trading

USD | The foreign exchange market enjoyed high levels of trade on Monday as the equivalent of US$47.29 million were bought while selling amounted to US$50.44 million. This is in contrast with last week’s Monday’s trade in which US$41.2 million were purchased and US$44.4 million sold.

However, the selling rate for the US dollar slipped from Friday’s close to end at J$99.018 (Friday J$99.058) as US$48.6 were sold and US$44.2 million were bought at J$98.52, slightly lower than Friday’s buying rate of J$98.58.

GBP | Sellers to authorized dealers sold £1.3 million at an average of J$149.30 while dealers sold £1.16 million at an average of J$152.72 compared to Friday, when it was sold at J$153.07.

CAD | CAD$1.63 million were bought at an average of J$95.77, a sharp decline from Friday’s rate of J$97.21 and the amount sold was CAD$897,257 at an average rate of J$97.86, slightly higher than Friday’s trades which took place at J$97.79.

Highs & Lows | The highest selling rate for the US dollar remains over J$104 while the lowest is at $81.16. The Pound was sold at a high of $158.68 and a low of $147.56 and the Canadian at a high of $102.45 and a low of $95.15.

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FX: Friday, 10th May 2013

Buying exceeds selling by US$10m

USD | Trading activity in the currency market was relatively uneventful with the most watched currency against the Jamaican dollar, the US, hardly had any rates change. Authorised dealers bought US$37.5 million and sold only $27.6 million, that is almost a $10 million difference. The average buying rate for US dollars was $98.579 and the currency was sold at $99.0575. Yesterday, the rates were, buying $98.448 and selling $99.051 resulting in a minor devaluation of the Jamaican dollar against the US.

CAD | More Canadian dollars were purchased today than on Thursday. The amounts purchased was CAD$ 1.63 million and selling $885,795. Purchases of Canadian dollars cost more but sellers charged less to offload the currency today.

GBP | Today £960,233 pounds were bought compared to Thursday’s buying of £3,661 million. There was selling of £734,700, far less than the £3.04 million sold on Thursday. The rate of the pound fell in today’s trading with the buying rate off J$2.30 taking it to J$150.45, the selling rate was 46 cents lower.

Yen falls | Elsewhere the Japanese yen crossed aggressively over the 100 barrier and reached just under 102 yen to the US dollar before retreating to 101.61 at the close as the US dollar gathers strength based on what many in the market are seeing as an ever improving economic developments in the United States. The yen has climbed back from a low of 77 to one US dollar last year. The move which many expect to continue will benefit Jamaicans, making imports form that country vastly cheaper than in 2012.

FX_TRADE+HighLow+May10

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FX: Thursday, May 9th 2013

Mixed FX market

GBP | The main action was in the trading of pounds sterling on Thursday as buying was up on Wednesday with £3,661 million bought compared to £779, 323 on Wednesday. The rate climbed for buying as it moved up by $1.90 over Wednesday’s price of J$150.832 to the pound. On the sell side, more than £1.56 million were sold than on Wednesday but the price slipped by 14.55 cents. The pound’s lowest buying rate moved down sharply from 130.07 to J$124.09 and was the most pronounced change in rates for the day.

CAD | The Canadian dollar was less expensive on both the buying and selling side as it took, on average, 47 cents to sell to the system but buyers were paying under a cent less for that currency.

USD | Authorized dealers bought US$24 million for 10 Jamaican cents less per US dollar and sold US$23 million for about 2 cents more than on Wednesday. Overall, the market once more traded more currency on the buy side than on the sell side. Sale of foreign currency was also less than the amount bought on Wednesday. Purchases on Thursday were less than on Wednesday and less selling also took place. There were US$9.6 million less purchases in the system and US$10.3 million less were sold than on Wednesday.

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ForEx: Wednesday, 8th May 2013

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Rates up in trades

The average buying and selling rates inched up on Wednesday for the US and Canadian dollar. It took less for the public to buy  the Pound, while authorized dealers also paid less for the British currency than yesterday on average on a day when there were more purchases of foreign exchange by authorized dealers than by the general public for all the major currencies. Purchases in the foreign exchange market amounted to $40.278 million and $37 million were sold, with the average selling rate for the US dollar inching up to $99.0324 from $99.0056 on Tuesday. Purchases took place at an average of $98.5543 compared to yesterdays $98.5034.

ForExSummaryMay8The Canadian dollar changed hands at $97.2189 and was sold at $98.585 compared with yesterday’s $96.446 buying and $97.9598 selling. The Pound sold today for $153.6649 compared to Tuesdays $153.7841 and was bought at $150.8328 with yesterday’s trade working out at $151.1563. On both days the level of buying of pounds and Canadian dollars were well in excess of sales.

This is the first day since the start of last week that the rate of the US has actually moved against the Jamaican dollar.

The highest rates today were $104 selling for the US dollar, the same as Tuesday, and buying $99.95 versus $99.20 on Tuesday. On the low, the US dollars were bought for $81.16, the same as yesterday, and sold at a low of $97.20. Yesterday the lowest sale was at $83.26 and the purchase at $81.16.

ForExDEtailsMay8

Daily Trading 7th May 2013

JSE | Junior market sets a record with no trades

The junior market achieved a record today when no shares traded. This has never happened, except in the early days when Access Financial Services was the only listed stock on the junior market. Many investors and brokerage house personnel told ICInsider.com that investors were wondering what had happened, some thinking a computer glitch had occurred. In the end, we were told that brokers did not effect any trades since the bids and offers were quite far apart for some stocks and in some cases the volumes on either side, offer or buy, were small.

Five stocks in the junior market and 5 in the main market closed with bids above the last sale price, which means higher prices ahead.

JSEINdicesMay7Bullish days ahead? | The junior market is not the only place that is showing signs of improved investor’s sentiment. In the main market, Scotia Group has rebounded from the post NDX effect by trading in good volumes, NCB is well off the low it reach after the NDX announcement, Grace Kennedy and Carreras have been moving higher.  A number of stocks seem to have found a floor, with strong bids at their last selling price. At the same time, supply is drying up for some stocks. That may well be so, but the all signals are not yet in place for a grand rally.

Interestingly, the market is not reacting negatively to the write-off of unrealized investment gains that have knocked off huge profits for the March Quarter among the financial institutions. Investors seem to be looking beyond that, to recognize that even with those one-off charges, stock prices are still undervalued on the whole. Also, interest rates are likely to fall some more and with very low yields on money market instruments, stocks may be the main thing in town for a long time to come.

Scotia Bank with 1.8 million shares changing hands today valued at $39.1 million commanded the bulk of trading and the stock price moved up 31 cents. Interestingly, the bid to offer ratio on this stock is pitched in favour of buyers as they outnumber sellers. Volumes have generally been low for the sell side while demand is much higher. NCB  rose 19 cents and does not have much volume below $20 per share on the sell side, a sign that the price could rise some more.

Jamaica Broilers has strong buying interest and so does the Gleaner with more than 3 million on the bid at $1.20.

Market signs | The market is displaying signs of upward movements to come but it will have to close well over 87,000 points on the All Jamaica Index before we see signs of a sustainable rally. With the market closing today at 83,282, there are still some movements to go before realizing what could be a bull run.

The market traded $50,469,026.73 in local currency as well as US$9,577.70 in the US dollar market.

TTSE | WITCO jumps $7, market heading higher

West Indian Tobacco Company (WITCO) stock jumped $7.07 to end the day at a all time record of $107.07.

A volume of 1,314,293 shares traded on the main market valued at $5,530,257.06. Trinidad Cement accounted for 637,564 shares valued at $605,685.80, followed by Jamaica Money Market Brokers with a volume of 430,000 shares being traded for $215,000.  Angostura Holdings contributed 125,055 shares with a value of $1,125,495 and Neal & Massy Holdings added 40,177 shares valued at $2,370,443.

TTSEMay7Point Lisas Industrial Port Development Corporation suffered the day’s sole decline, falling $0.01 to end the day at $3.64 on a day when trading took place in 14 securities of which 6 advanced, 1 declined and 7 traded firm.

Clico Investment Fund was the only active security on the Mutual Fund Market, posting a volume of 230,253 shares valued at $4,854,228.71 while advancing 0.07 to end at $21.08.

Closing prices point to a higher market ahead | Clear signs of this can be seen from the number of stocks that have bids at the same level as the last traded price but more importantly there are 7 stocks where the bids are above the last traded price. The companies are Ansa Merchant Bank bid $38.51 last sale $38.50, Berger last sale $3.55 closing bid $3.58, Grace Kennedy, bid $3.31 last price $3.23, One Caribbean Media, $16.75 is the bid versus last price of $16.60, Scotia Investments last sale price $1.55 with the closing bid of $1.57, Scotia Bank which last sold at $69.27 now has a bid of $69.30  and West Indian tobacco which traded today at $107.07 with a closing bid of $110.

ForEx | J$ appreciation continues

In Tuesday’s foreign exchange trading, the value of the Jamaican dollar continued its appreciation as it took J$99.0056 to purchase a US dollar. At the end of Monday’s trade it took J$99.0276 to purchase one US dollar.

ForExSummaryMay7Sellers of the US dollar were better off on average than on Monday as they got J$98.53 for each US dollar they sold compared to $98.4189 on Monday. Sellers of Canadian dollars and Pound sterling were not as fortunate as they got 24 cents less for selling on Monday compared to Tuesday for the Canadian dollar and 15 cents less for selling the pound. It took just 4 cents less to purchase the Canadian dollars and 18 cents less for the Pound.

The equivalent of US$39.2 million, were purchased and US$39.97 million were sold, as increased liquidity continues to enter the market.

Market signals | Highest selling rate for the US was J$104 and the lowest J$83.26 while the highest buying rate for the US was J$99.2 and the lowest J$81.16. The selloff of foreign currency and appreciation of the local currency seems set to continue.

ForExDEtailsMay7

Observers say FX market is liquid

ForEx trading as at Friday 4 May, 2013 | Sale of foreign exchange was greater than the amounts purchased, but the selling rate for the US dollar slipped yet again, in a two-week long appreciation of the beleaguered currency. The closing average rate of the US dollar against the Jamaican dollar is now down to $99.19 compared to yesterday’s $99.26, the currency sold for an average rate of $99.36 on Monday and is well off the low of J$99.81 reached on April 12th. The Jamaican dollar has appreciated every day this week.

Amounts traded | Authorized dealers purchased more funds today than on Thursday, US$34.14 million vs. $32.8 million, but sales amounted to $38.65 million. Only $26.54 million was sold on Thursday. Based on the trend seen from last week and evident all of this week, the currency may well end up below $99 to US$1 during next week. Where it will end? No one really knows, except may be central bankers?  One person within the financial system told ICInsider.com that some corporations and individuals have been squeezed holding the US dollar when Bank of Jamaica launched the index bond which sucked liquidity out of the market for Jamaican dollars.

What is really happening? |  ICInsider.com spoke to two persons within the financial sector who are in a position to say what’s going on. One said that corporate clients are no longer demanding FX as they did before since the announcement that the IMF board would be reviewing Jamaica’s application for funding. Individuals who had bought FX earlier are now offloading, fearing further revaluation of the Jamaican dollar. Even financial institutions are off loading into the market. Both respondents said that supply is adequate to meet demand as such persons are not rushing to buy now as they may purchase what they need later at a lower price.

Developments are really worth watching as liquidity returns to the market with far more positive sentiment that before April.