280,000 points for All Jamaica

JSCD SM buildThe main market of the stock exchange has been closing at new highs on several occasions since November, with the latest being Friday December 2. At the same time, the junior which closed at a new high of 2,482.44 on November 7, is struggling since but with gains of 35 percent year to date.
For many years, December has been a period when the main market delivers major gains. This seems to be happening since the start of November and is supported by technical indicators that point to an initial run to 210,000 points on the all Jamaica Composite index and then to 240,000 points, with minimum resistance before facing a big resistance around the 260,000 points mark. (see Chart).
The main market broke through resistance at just under 190,000 points, where it was wedged in by a resistance line going back to the 2005 high, and the high in the early months, this year, preventing it from moving higher before. JSE inx tech 12-16The market is again in another wedge but that should be easily broken, with breakout not far off.
The junior market on the other hand is trading in a channel between 2,480 on the low and 2,600 points on the high and may take some time to break out, as it seems to be more inclined to trade closer to the lower end, with several of the stocks selling above 10 times current year earnings.
PE ratio on average is around 10 for the main market and 12 for the juniors, but a number are selling well over this level with some as high as 20 times 2016 earnings. Supply has been declining for the vast majority of stocks and many investors don’t seem to be aware of this.
10 stocks in the junior market are selling in excess of the average and 13 in the main market.

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