Investors buying into the public offer of NCB Financial Group stock at $65 each in May are hugging up an 18 percent loss on their investment since, with the stock hitting a 52 weeks’ low of $54.66 on Monday and ending at a closing low of $55 after more than 1.5 million shares were traded, following a sizable 3 million share trade on June 17, when the stock closed at $59.
Investors in the stock whether new or not are taking the beating following the public offer that came when the stock was trading at an eleven year low going back to February 2013. The question for investors is whether the price has reached a bottom and when will a consistent rebound commence. The accompanying chart will help in partially answering the questions.
NCB is a diversified financial group, providing services in general insurance, life insurance, banking and investments management. The group is also geographically diversified with operations in Trinidad, Bermuda and Jamaica. It has a solid base that it can use to produce increased revenues and profits in the future.
Currently, the stock trades at a PE ratio of just 6.5, at a steep discount to the Main Market with an average valuation of 14, but higher than Scotia Group at a mere 6.
The major issue is whether the stock price is at or near the bottom. The attached chart offers some clues, with the stock trading at the bottom of a downward sloping channel.
30 highest bids and offers for NCB shares mid morning on Wednesday.
It may take some time for the added pressure brought on by the issue of the additional shares for which there was inadequate demand, to abate.
The price seems to have reached support at the channel bottom. The lower channel line goes back to July last year. The trend shown by the channel, between the green and the orange lines is negative, sloping downwards, suggesting that the price downturn could continue awhile longer. The stock will probably bounce off the low reached on Monday, but the demand shown by the order book is thin, suggesting the price could go lower. It would not be surprising to see the stock hitting $50 before bottoming out. If it rebounds from where it is now it’s likely to get back to $65 and probably resume its decline towards the $50 mark as buyers at $65 try to get out. Although undervalued, investors should be cautious in buying the stock around the recent price. They should probably await clearer signals that it is at the bottom.
