Profit doubles at Caribbean Cream for Q1

Caribbean Cream released first quarter results with revenues up a solid 28 percent to $549 million and profit doubled to $54 million after taxation of nearly $8 from $27 million after tax of $4 million with earnings of 14 cents per share.

Caribbean Cream’s Kremi product

Cost of sales rose 17 percent to $341 million from $292 million in 2020. Selling and distribution costs rose 21 percent to $15 million while administrative costs rose 41 percent to $126 million, finance costs came in at $5 million. Taxation rose to $7.7 million from $4 million in 2020.
Commenting on the results for the year in a joint statement Christopher Clarke, Chairman and Carol Clarke Webster director, operating expenses rose 35 percent or 38 million due to a number of factors, higher transport cost for an increased number of deliveries of product. “Internal reclassification of electricity from production to distribution to more fairly reflect energy usage by business segments’ salary increases and other staff related costs and the full annualized cost for the Ocho Rios depot. The directors stated that they are currently carrying out capital works at the properties for operations that will lead to reduced cost of utilities.
Cash inflows for the quarter were $98 million versus $64 million in 2020, but after working capital changes, inflows rose to $117 million, $62 million was expended on the acquisition of property and resulted in cash on hand of $264 million. Current assets stood at $453 million and current liabilities at $210 million, resulting in net current assets of $243 million. Shareholders’ equity grew to $888 million from $771 million as of May 2020 and loans amounted to  $324 million, of which $29 million is due to be repaid in the next twelve months.
IC projects a profit of $320 million or 85 cents per share for the 2022 fiscal year and $1.50 per share for 2023. The stocks last traded at $6.90, after releasing the results, on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, a 52 weeks’ high and the highest since October 2018. At Friday’s last traded price, the stock ended the week at a PE ratio of 8.3, well below the average of 13 currently for the Junior Market.

Lasco Manufacturing hits IC TOP10

Lasco Manufacturing returns to IC TOP10 best performing stock in the past week, replacing Honey Bun closing at $6 in a week that the Junior Market climbed to a new eleven month high and posted a five percent gain for the year to date.

While the Junior Market had a new addition, the Main Market TOP10 continued with the same stocks as the week before but Grace Kennedy price rose from $68 to $73.45 with the stock moving from 5th spot to 7th.
The 2021 winner to date, Jamaican Teas lost a cent this past week after trading at a record high of $3.04 and moved down to the ninth spot this week with the price closing at $2.88 on Friday. Caribbean Cream price closed at $4.50 down from $4.95 at the end of the previous week to sit at 7th spot now. Lumber Depot one of the better Junior Market movers held at $1.95 after hitting $2.12 during the week to remain at eight position.
The Junior Market is up 4.9 percent for 2021 and is currently powered by a bullish golden cross, setting to take the market beyond 3,000 points. The release of company results in the next two weeks will play a big role in the next few weeks that will add fuel to the current rally. In this regard, based on 2020 release of results, interim financials are expected this week, from Access Financial, Barita Investments, Iron Rock Insurance, NCB Financial, the Lasco group of companies and Jamaican Teas.
The Main Market continues to slip in January, but technical indicator points to it heading towards the 460,000 points level on the All Jamaica Composite Index, in months.
The current TOP 10 report is based on earnings for 2020/21 as there are substantial gains ahead, for many stocks in the listings.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market with the potential to gain between 196 to 381 percent are Caribbean Producers followed by Elite Diagnostic and Lasco Financial. With expected gains of 135 to 315 percent, the top three Main Market stocks are, Berger Paints followed by Scotia Group and Carreras.
The local stock market’s targeted average PE ratio is 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, from now to the second quarter in 2021. The Junior and Main markets are currently trading well below the market average, indicating strong gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week, with an overall PE of 18.9 and the Junior Market 14.8, based on’s projected 2020-21 earnings. The PE ratio for the Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 7.8 at just 53 percent of the market average. The Main Market TOP 10 stocks trade at a PE of 9.1 or 48 percent of the PE of that market.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 181 percent and 132 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2020-21 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2021 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely gain for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

45% gains for ICTOP15 stock

Robust gains for some stocks after less than a month of trading in 2021 have shaken up ICTOP 15 stocks forcing a number of them out or at the edge of moving out of the 2021 TOP list. Jamaican Teas now the lead stock for the year, dropped out of the Junior Market list this week, with a rise of 45 percent since the start of the year.

Jamaican Teas is the leading JSE stock for 2021 to date with a 45% increase in price. 

This brings to two, stocks that have migrated from the Junior Market TOP15 so far. Jamaica Producers fell out of the Top 15 Main Market list with the price dropping to $19.81, from $21 but Margaritaville suffered a greater fall to replace it.
Jamaican Teas one of the top 15 stocks for 2021 scaled record highs this past week as more and more investors piled into the stock since the three for one stock split in November last year. The gain also follows the directors’ report for the September quarter results that stated  “Subsequent to the year-end, overall sales increased by 47 percent in October 2020, with export sales increasing 85 percent and a 10 percent increase in domestic sales. We have good orders in hand for November and these developments, along with booking of more real estate sales, hopefully, improvement in the investment portfolio should result in a good first quarter for the financial year 2021.”
Mailpac was the first to drop out of the list and now has gains of 29 percent so far in 2021. Lumber Depot surged to $2.10 on Friday but closed at $1.95 from $1.46 last week and now sits at 15th spot on the Junior Market TOP15 for 2021, with a 25 percent gain for the year to date. Reports in the newspapers indicate bullish sales expectations from Caribbean Cement and rising prices for some construction inputs.

MailPac is the Junior Market second-best performing stock for 2021.

The news pushed investors to snap up Lumber Depot stock and drove the price much higher, since. QWI Investments is up 17 percent since the end of last year to trade at 90 cents with the net asset value rising since the latter part of last year to sit at $1.18 as gains in both local and overseas stocks continue to add to the value of the company’s portfolio. The stock is now at 14th spot on the Main Market list. A large number of shares were overhanging the market and pressuring the stock price. Once they were bought out, the supply has shrunken leaving room for the price to recover.
Caribbean Cream posted eleven percent growth in sales for the November quarter and eight percent for the nine months, with profit rising 96 percent for the nine months and a 37.5 percent increase for the third quarter. The stock is up 18 percent for the year at the close on Friday and remains at the seventh position on the 2021/22 TOP15 list.
With interest rates at low levels on government bonds and expected to remain low for a protracted period, investors are becoming more comfortable with PE of 20 times earnings or more, according to the TOP 15 rankings the above stocks still have room to gain over 90 percent from the current price for the rest of the year.

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Profit more than doubles at Kremi

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Profit after taxation at the IC BUY RATED Caribbean Cream more than doubled, with a jump of 110 percent for the six months to August and 220 percent in the August quarter, to $74 million from $35 million in 2019 for the half-year and a rise from $14.7 million for the 2019 quarter to $47 million.
Operating revenues rose nine percent for the quarter, to $461 million from $422 million and six percent for the year to date, from $840 million in 2019 to $891 million. For the fiscal year to February, this year, revenues rose by 10 percent to $1.7 billion.
Improvement in profit margin resulted in gross profit rising faster than sales with 15 percent improvement in the first half of the year to $310 million versus $269 million in 2019 and 28 percent in the August quarter with gross profit of $171 from $133 million.
Selling, distribution and administrative expenses declined from $114 million in the 2019 quarter, to $111 million in 2020 and from $221 million in 2019, to $216 million in the six months to August. The decline in cost took place in spite of a sharp increase in depreciation charges in the current year, from $29 million to $59 million. Finance cost increased in the quarter to $6 million from $4 million in 2019 and from $10 million to $9 million for the six months period. Taxation doubled to $10.6 million for the half-year from $5 million in 2019 and moved from $2 million for the quarter to $6.7 million.
Historical results going back to the 2014 fiscal year shows steady annual growth in sales revenue but a more uneven increase in profits. The latter is partially due to the cost associated with expansion and the buying of market share that saw a less aggressive increase in selling prices for its products.
Earnings per share for the quarter came out at 12 cents and 20 cents for the six months.
Gross cash flow brought in $143 million, but growth in inventories, loan repayment offset by loan inflows and reduced payables pushed the cash funds to $152 million at the end of August, up from $58 million at the end of August 2019. With the increased profit for the year to date, shareholders’ equity now stands at $818 million, with borrowings at just $249 million. Net current assets ended the period at $191 million, including trade and other receivables of $63 million, while Current liabilities stood at $162 million.
The company paid 2.49 cents per share as the final dividend for the year ended February 29, 2020, on Friday, October 2. Net asset value is $2.16, with the stock selling at 2.3 times book value.
The results encouraged buying into the stock on Friday, with the price moving from $4.71 it last traded at on Thursday to a high of $5.25. IC forecasts earnings of 60 cents per share for the current year that ends in February 2021 and 95 cents for 2022. The PE is currently 8.5 times the current year’s earnings based on the latest price of $5.15, the stock traded at on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange.

Depreciation melts Kremi profit

A quick look at the audited accounts for Caribbean Cream to February shows another year of disappointing results that cut across the likely outturn the November 2019 results suggested. Closer examination of the data reveals a far better picture of the company’s performance than initially meets the eye.

Caribbean Cream Kremi brand

Profit for 2020 fell sharply, but gross cash flow rose for the year in which revenues rose 10 percent as a sharp rise in depreciation charge knocked net profit down to $55 million from the $89 million reported in 2019 with earnings per share falling to 14 cents, down from 23 cents in 2019.
The depreciation charge more than doubled in the year, with an increase of $63 million, to end at $115 million as fixed assets amounting to $432 million were added during the year and were subject to be depreciated. Leased assets costing $115 million, also incurred depreciation, a different treatment than in the prior year. Although the profit fell sharply by 38.5 percent, increased depreciation resulted in gross cash inflows being $195 million compared to $165 million in 2019.
Revenues rose 10 percent from $1.55 billion to $1.7 billion for the year, with the final quarter growing at a faster pace than the 7.7 up to November. In the last quarter, revenues grew a healthy 16.2 percent to $471 million from $405 million in 2019. Unfortunately, of the $115 million depreciation charge for the year, only $53 million was booked up to November last year, resulting in $62 million booked in the final quarter.
Gross profit margin declined in the year leading to gross profit rising slower than the increase in revenues at 5 percent to $546 million and is due primarily to a 12 percent rise in raw material cost and a 76 percent increase in depreciation charges in the manufacturing operation. Overall, cost rose faster than the increase in revenues for the year with Administrative, selling and distribution expenses 15 percent for the year.
The company is in a healthy financial position at the end of February, with shareholders’ equity stood at $744 million with borrowings of $232 million. Net current assets ended the period at $74 million inclusive of trade and other receivables of $58 million, cash and bank balances of $129 million while Current liabilities closed the period at $232 million.
IC is forecasting earning per share of 50 cents for the current fiscal year, assuming only minimal negative impact from Coronavirus. The stock traded at $2.20 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of 4.5 times 2021 earnings.

Market Watch still on Scotia

Scotia Group January 2019 first quarter results due this week.

The main and Junior markets of the Jamaica Stock Exchange pulled back in the holiday shortened week as investors continue to digest and react to some mixed results for 2018.
Scotia Group did not released this past week as was done in 2018. The 2019 result is expected this week, this is one that is to be watched keenly and investors would be smart to keep an eye on the most critical signal that it will send for increased profits for this year. It must show meaningful  growth in the loan portfolio, to start pumping up profit. Caribbean Cement closed at $51.02 and should move higher with limited supply on offer and an analysis of the audited 2018 results suggesting that cost should decline sharply in some areas and revenues rise in the current year. IC again revised earnings, this time to to $7 for the year. Last year, cement import cost more than $1 billion, that cost will not recur this year, they will also benefit from a full year of the removal of the expensive lease cost resulting full year’s saving from the $2 billion annual savings, resulting from owning the kilns rather than leasing. Radio Jamaica climbed to $1.15 late last week but there is not much selling at these levels.
Jamaica Stock Exchange pulled back during the week to $14.80 and seems poised to slip some more before settling down, ahead of the 2019 first quarter results that is expected to show a big increase in profit if the data of trading values are anything to go for 2019 to date. Grace Kennedy reported improved results with earnings per share of $5, helped by a big increase in investment income and foreign exchange should be priced higher than the $60.80 it last traded at.

Buying of Fontana was strong on Friday.

Buying came in for Fontana last week pushing the price the price to $4 on Friday and could move higher during the coming week. Wisynco continues to trade around the current price just below $12 and seems poised to continue to move side wards for a while. Watch Elite Diagnostic that has been steady around $3.20 but with good buying interest at the current price level but sellers are reluctant to come off the $3.40 offer price.
Buying for General Accident continues to trade around $4.50 level with no clear signs when it will the break out to a higher price level as there have been selling around these levels and that may well continue for a while.
Lasco Financial remains stuck around $4.60 price level with some selling taking place at $4.60, but buying is not strong enough to move the price in the short term. Medical Disposables bounced last week but the price may bounce around for some time in the medium term. Caribean Cream seems poised to move higher with a gap that has developed between buying and selling interest. Express Catering this one could see huge benefits from the big double digit increase in tourist arrival this year so far, with January up 11.3 percent islandwide. Stationery and Office Supplies dropped to $7 from more than $8 but there are signs of a bounce. Barita Investments announced an interim dividend of 82 cents per share, this news could well lift demand for the stock.

Profit jumps 59% at Carib Cream

Caribbean Cream outlook.

Profit jumped 59 percent in the quarter to May, to $55 million from $35 million in 2017 from sales revenue that rose 29 percent to $412 million from $319 billion in 2017 for Caribbean Cream that trades as Kremi.
The improvement brings to an end falling profit for the past fiscal year when profit fell to $90 million from $176 million in 2017, from increased revenues and from profit of $164 million in 2016.
For the quarter, gross profit margin rose to 36 percent from 34 percent in the 2017, as input cost climbed 25 percent, compared over for the 2017 first quarter. The net effect, operating profit rose 37 percent to $147 million from $107 million.
Administrative expenses increased 25 percent to $76 million and marketing and sales expenses climbed 24 percent to $13 million. Finance cost was up to $3.4 million from $3.15 million.
Earnings per share came out at 15 cents for the quarter and should end the year around 70 cents, just slightly lower than the 80 cents forecasted at the end of the fiscal year.
According to Chairman Carol Clarke Webster and Managing Director, Christopher Clarke in their joint statement to shareholders, “these results are attributable to improved products supply as a result of greater production efficiencies, along with the introduction of a new range of novelties which are performing well in the market. In addition, we continued our sales and marketing thrusts to expand our market penetration and ‘Top of the mind” awareness of our product range.”
Gross cash flow brought in $65 million but growth in receivables, inventories, offset by payables reduced it to $44 million, in addition, fixed assets purchased for $101 million offset by net loan inflows of $65 million resulted in a cash increase of $8 million, pushing the cash and bank balances to $183 million. Shareholders’ equity stands at $693 million with borrowings at just $147 million. Net current assets ended the period at $221 million well over Payables of $134 million.
The stock traded at $4.90 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of just 7 times 2019 earnings leaving quite some room for a good bounce from the current price. The stock is one of the TOP 10 Junior Market listings.
The company declared a dividend of 4.8 cents payable on September 21 to shareholders on record at the end of September 7. The stock will traded ex dividend on September 6.

Watch impact of interest rate cut

Lower interest rates make real assets more valuable than before, as such the biggest change to stocks this coming week may well be guided by the recent cut in interest rates, with Treasury bill rates falling and the Bank of Jamaica cutting its overnight rate by 25 basis points.
At the close of last week, Caribbean Cream closed at $6.20 and helped to return it to the TOP 10 list, replacing Lasco Financial with its price rising to $4 from $3.40.
There were no other change to the two listings at the close of the week, even as the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed to week at record new high. For the coming week the cut in interest rates by Bank of Jamaica as well as a fall in the most recent Treasury rates could well positively impact prices.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is at 7.5 and the PE for the main market TOP 10, ends the week at 7.3. The average PE for the overall main market trades at 13.6 and 13.3 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 44 percent to the average of the market for Junior Market Top stocks and it remains at 46 percent for the main market.

3 all-time highs for IC TOP 10 stocks

Berger closed at a new all-time high on Friday

The prices of several stocks listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange underwent some sharp adjustments in the past week, and especially so on Friday, the day after government disclosed revenues measures for the 2018 fiscal year.
Nothing was disclosed to send negative signals to investors, apart from some slight increase in inflation to be caused by increased taxes on a number of items, which could be partially offset by the rise in the tax threshold for individual taxpayers. If any thing the budget sends a strong message that the next twelve months should be highly positive for investments in stocks and real estate with increased fiscal surplus that have to be generated to meet the 7 percent primary surplus, that will have some deflationary impact and lead to lower interest rates near term. While the tax on cigarettes may initially be considered negative for Carreras the increase will allow the company to garner increased revenues to cover the tax and help boost profits.
The TOP 10 junior and main market stocks saw only a few movements in and out during the past week. A number of the stocks in the list hit new highs during the week. The price of ISP Finance hit a new high of $11.50 as some supply came to the market. With limited supply and the potential for strong growth in profits the stock looks like a candidate for as split before too long. Berger Paints and Pulse Investments climbed sharply to new highs, with the former trading as high as $15 during the week but settled back at $14, up from $11.51 at the close of the previous week. Pulse Investments closed the week at $8.55 and could go higher based on the limited supply on offer at $10.
The markets continue to consolidate while awaiting early signals from 2017 first quarter results. With the TOP stocks valued well below the average of the markets’ PE ratio and at a large discount to the valuation based on 2016 earnings, around 20 times, the Top 10 stocks should continue to record gains once the bull market remains intact.
In the junior market, Dolphin Cove and Jetcon Corporation returns to the top list after exiting, at the close of the previous week and with the latter falling sharply in price to close at $11.03. The two replaced Lasco Manufacturing and AMG Packaging, two that entered in the past week. These stocks are still within striking distance for the top tier listing but market activity in the coming week could change all of that.
In the main market of the Jamaica Broilersreported strong gains in its third quarter profits and should encourage investors to bid the stock up, during the week and Berger Paints seems set to move out of the list by the close of the week and Caribbean Cream and Dolphin Cove could move out of the top list during the week.

Broilers and Kremi now TOP 10ers

The past week saw much changes in the main and junior markets as prices gyrated up and down, for several of the stocks. Some of the highly valued stocks, declined in value as some investors took profit from the sharp rise since the start of 2017, for a number of stocks.
In the TOP 10 junior market selection, Caribbean Flavours (CFF) rose 24 percent to $12.44 during the week and moved out of the list, with the bid at $12.50, making space for Caribbean Cream, now occupying ninth spot. CFF sits just outside the top tier of junior market stocks and could well reenter at the end of next week. ISP Finance moved to a new high of $10.10 on the bid, having traded during the week at record high of $10 and no longer sits on the number 1 spot. Key Insurance suffered a setback with a big 2016 fourth quarter loss of $136 million, coming from increased insurance claim provisioning of $433 million for the quarter and $1 billion for the full year. Hopefully, that is now behind them, clearing the way for 2017 to deliver what the company seems capable of doing. tTech pulled back in price, to sit at a more comfortable $7, after some selling came in for the stock. Access Financial climbed to a new all-time high of $35, helped by strong nine months results and lack of supply of stocks for sale.
Scotia Investments climbed to $41.19 during the week, from $38 the previous week and exited the TOP 10 main market stocks. The move made space for Jamaica Broilers that lost value during the past week, falling from $16.25 at the start of the week, down to a more attractive $14.50, with an increased forecast of $2 earnings per share for the 2018 fiscal year starting May, this year. The week saw more interest in Radio Jamaica and JMMB Group, the latter trading at $23 on Friday, but closed lower by the end of trading, helped by net profit rising 55 percent to $2.68 billion, for the nine months to December last year. Earnings per share for the nine months came out at $1.63 and 39 cents for the December quarter.