122% gain pushes stock out of ICTOP10

Two companies in the transportation sector swapped places in the IC Junior Market TOP10 this week as another TOP10 stock gained more than 100 percent for the year, the fourth such feat for the Junior Market TOP10. Jetcon Corporation’s price popped 61 percent for the week to a 52 weeks’ high of $1.75 to record gains of 122 percent for the year to date and dropped out of the TOP10, and is replaced by Future Energy Sources.
Other than Jetcon, prices of other TOP10 stocks had notable increases during the past week; these include; Jamaica Broilers and Grace Kennedy from the main market but Radio Jamaica, PanJam and Scotia Group prices took hits. In the Junior Market, Caribbean Cream, Access and Stationery and Office Supplies had nice gains resulted in the average gains projected slipping from 216 percent last week to 210 percent. The average projected gains for the Main Market stocks inched up last week from 169 to 170 percent.
The Junior Market closed the week at 3,327.84, down from 3,339.02, last week, as it continues to consolidate around the zone of resistance. The JSE All Jamaica Composite Index hit 466,915.58 points during the morning session on Friday, before closing lower at 459,273.23, up from 456,395.73, at the close of the previous week, as the market continues to wrestle with resistance.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market are Elite Diagnostic heading the list, followed by Medical Disposables and Caribbean Assurance, with potential to gain between 250 to 303 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by PanJam Investments and Wisynco, with expected gains of 153 to 394 percent.
This week’s focus: Access Financial Services came out with full year results that reflected increased lending and EPS of 50 cents in the March quarter. ICInsider.com upgraded earnings to just under $3 per share for the current fiscal year. Scotia Group also reported results for the six months to April, with a 12 percent rise in profit for the April quarter over the 2020 same quarter and an 11.4 percent rise for the six months results. The big negative is that the loan portfolio continued its decline into the April quarter.  ICInsider.com now projects 2021 earnings at $4 per share.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on companies’ profits reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Stocks and 19 times for the Main Market.
The Junior Market, with an average PE 12.6 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17.1; this represents another 35 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 59 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.6 at just 53 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 17.1, still some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 17 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.8 or 45 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate, resulting in periodic movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.
Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

ICTOP10 – Guardian a better buy now

The average gains projected for the Junior Market fell from 225 percent last week to 218 percent as the prices of a number of the top 10 stocks rose during the past week, but with no new entrant to either Top 10 list. The average projected gains for the Main Market stocks move up from 162 to 169 percent helped in a big way by the fall of Guardian Holdings from $790 last week to $763.  

Guardian Holdings hit a low of J$750 on Friday.

The price slippage for Guardian shares below $790 provides investors a better value proposition, with the PE at 8.3 times, rather than 8.6 that the NCB Global offer price for the 2 million shares they are offering to the public.
The markets continue to face resistance this past week, with the Junior Market is trading at the very top of its upward sloping channel while the JSE Main Market sits a few thousand points away and facing turbulence in getting to the peak. With the two Lasco companies releasing results after the market closed on Friday it will be interesting to see what investors do with their prices. If they rise appreciable the resistance is likely to be broken and clear the way to move to a new yearly high in the weeks ahead.
The Junior Market closed the week at 3,329.50, up slightly from 3,324 at the end of the previous week. The JSE All Jamaica Composite Index ended at 454,375.81 on Friday, marginally lower than 454,479.33 at the close of the previous week.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market, remain unchanged for this week, with Elite Diagnostic heading the list, followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Caribbean Producers, with the potential to gain between 255 to 303 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by PanJam Investments and Wisynco, with expected gains of 149 to 371 percent.
This week’s focus: RJR suffered badly from the effects of the curtailment of business in 2020 after showing signs of recovering from the prior years’ slow growth and high cost of operations. In 2020 they moved to deal with the pressure the fallout had and showed marked improvement in the second half of the calendar year. Importantly, there was significant cost cutting with the third quarter showing the effects with vastly improved results.
The impression given in the group’s December quarterly report is that the sharp fall in direct operating, selling and marketing costs were directly related to the fall off in revenues. That of course is only part of the story. The fall in cost has been far greater than the reduction in revenues suggesting that actual cost cutting was effected. ICInsider.com confirmed that the group that made some staff redundant also made changes by discontinuing unprofitable programs and publications. “Regarding cost reductions, some changes in the distribution network and workflows are permanent,” this publication was informed but revenues for some of the newspapers continue to run below pre Covid-19 levels.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Market stocks and 19 times for the Main Market.
The Junior Market with an average PE 12.4 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17, this represents another 37 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 61 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.4 at just 52 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 7.8, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 17 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.8 or 48 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

 

Guardian Holdings in ICTOP10

Guardian Holdings moved into the IC TOP 10 following the release of a prospectus from NCB Global that is offering 2 million shares to the public at $790 each, with the stock price falling immediately, after by more than $110, to be in line with the public offer price, valuing the company’s shares at 8 times 2021 projected earnings.

Guardian Holdings now in ICInsider.com’s TOP10.

Elsewhere, with the passage of earnings season, the markets have lost most of their recent firepower to drive prices forward at a time when the Junior Market is trading at the very top of its upward sloping channel while the JSE Main Market is a few thousand points away and in facing much turbulence in attempting to break through the peak.
At the start of the past week, the Junior Market pulled back from last Friday’s close, to sit just above the 3,300 level but climbed on each succeeding day of the week, but pulled back slightly on Friday to close at 3,324 points just a few points higher than at the end of the previous week. At the same time, the JSE Main Market made attempts to come close to the 460,000 mark of the All Jamaica Composite Index but was rebuffed on each occasion and ended the week at 454,479.33, up from 451,713.66 at the close of the previous week.
The Junior Market has to decidedly break through the upper limit of the trading channel, to free it to move on to the next area of resistance, just over 4,000 mark, but the Main Market has room to run for a few thousand points before it hits the channel top at 460,000 points.
There is a shakeup of the top three stocks in the Junior Market, this week. Elite Diagnostic heads the list, followed by Caribbean Assurance Brokers and Caribbean Producers, with potential to gain between 247 to 300 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by Wisynco and PanJam Investments, with expected gains of 151 to 344 percent.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Stocks and 19 times for the Main Market. With interest rates on government paper below 5 percent and likely to remain there for a few years, the likelihood is for the average PE ratios to climb higher during the next twelve months or so.
The Junior Market with an average PE 12.5 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading well below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17, this represents another 36 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 60 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.2 at just 50 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 16.5, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 15 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.9 or 48 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 225 percent and 162 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Fesco big forecasted revenue miss

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Future Energy Source went to the capital market at the end of March and was well received by 4,495 investors who snapped up the shares on offer, with investors pushing the 80 cents offer price of over $1 for a nice short term gain.
The company reported their full year results to March this year, with profit before tax of $141 million, up slightly from $137 million earned in 2020, but below the forecast in the prospectus.
Taxation ate up $31.7 million, leaving a net profit of $109 million, up from $105 million in 2020.  Revenues of $5.94 billion in 2020 fell just 2 percent to $5.85 billion in the latest fiscal year, but gross profit climbed 7.5 percent to $191.6 million from $178 million in 2020. While revenues for the year was down, fourth quarter revenues grew a strong 10.8 percent to $1.5 billion from $1.36 billion in 2020 and profit before tax rose to $48.5 from $41.4 million, the net profit for the 2021 quarter seems overstated as Operating and administrative expenses were just $767,621 versus $9 million in 2020, with full year cost of $59.5 million, up from $54 million in 2020.
Finance income net of expenses amounts to $398,872 versus $10.3 million in the 2020 March quarter and $9.4 million for the full year compared to $13 million in 2020. The amounts include foreign exchange gains and interest income with finance cost of $3.6 million for the 2021 fiscal year and $4.4 million in 2020, offsetting total finance income.

Future Energy Source gas station being built close to the top of Beachwood Avenue, Kingston. When fully operational will boost revenues and profit.

Data in the prospectus projected revenues that were $1 billion higher than the outturn, with the forecast being $6.87 billion that is a big miss when the fourth revenue grew by nearly 11 percent. It raises the question about the second year forecast of $10.57 billion, which would now represent a near doubling in revenues. Operating and administrative cost projected at $81 million ended at $59.5 million for the full year, which is just above the cost in the nine months of $58.7 million. The prospectus projected gross profit of $222 million, but the company delivered $191.6 million and had profit before tax projected at $151 million and $132 after projected taxation of $18.9 million, but the company delivered a lower net profit and higher taxes of $31.7 million. a total of $8.8 million of the reduced profit is due to inventory items consisting of pumps and other equipment which were incorrectly classified under property, plant and equipment being written-off to cost of goods in the final numbers.
The company shareholders’ equity stood at $319 million, up from $205 million in 2020 due to the profit made during the year as the IPO proceeds came in after the year end that will be swelled by $245 million. Current assets stood at $284 million with cash at $73 million, while current liabilities amount to $193 million.
Property, plant and equipment moved from $127 million to $256 million, with work in progress on the building of the gas station on Beachwood avenue accounting for $124 million.
The stock traded at $1.05 at the close on Friday, $1.05 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at a PE ratio of 8 times ICInsider.com projected earnings of 13 cents.

Profit gains push Berger & SOS out of ICTOP10

Stationery & Office Supplies hit a record high on Friday.

Stationery & Office Supplies – Montego Bay office.

Investors got a serious dose of a new set of company results and they liked a number of them, driving up prices of some up, following results that surprised positively. Many of the surprising ones matched the ICInsider.com forecast. Stationery & Office Supplies that was in the ICTOP10 up to last week reported earnings in line with ICInsider.com projections of $1 and investors pushed the price to a 52 weeks’ high of $9.50, with a gain of 109 percent for the year so far, with more gains ahead.
tTech is another company reporting earnings in line with the ICInsider.com forecast, with the stock jumping to $5.91 to be up 41 percent for the year. Berger Paints another TOP 10 stock up to last week, seems well on the way to earn $1.50, ICInsider.com forecasted, the price closed the week at $15, pushing it out of the TOP10. There are only 4,852 units on offer up to $17 thereafter, just over 154,000 between $18.99 and $19.86, Grace Kennedy reported a 26 percent rise in profit for the quarter, a continuation of good growth it enjoyed in 2020, but the market is yet to reward it with a price rise.
Access Financial and Key Insurance have moved into the TOP10 to fill the space left by the two stocks that fell out at the end of the week.
When ICInsider.com embarked on the 2021 profit forecast, it was a most difficult time due to the turbulence in the economy and businesses of many listed companies. Nevertheless, we boldly made our forecast and the first fruits are now showing and investors like them in driving up nine of 15 Junior Market stocks selected in January, bettering the gains for the year of 26 percent. Two stocks more than doubled and one is up 96 percent after more than doubling in trading for the year to date, earlier this week, before some profit taking set in. One stock rose 64 percent, one gained 43 percent, two 35 percent and two with 29 percent gain. Added to this is Future Energy Sources that was a part of the TOP10 listing starting at the end of February and has since gained 35 percent.
The ICTOP15 stocks in continuing an outstanding performance saw, Stationery & Office Supplies jumping 109 percent for the year to date, Lumber Depot 104 percent, Jamaican Teas 96 percent, Main Event 64 percent, Lasco Financial rose 43 percent, Caribbean Cream and Caribbean Producers up 35 percent, Lasco Distributors and MailPac a rise of 29 percent each.
The JSE Main Market is only up 4 percent year to date, but ICTOP15 stock selection saw Carreras and Grace Kennedy rising 37 percent, QWI Investments and Caribbean Cement up 29 percent, Seprod up 20 percent, Jamaica Producers 19 percent and Jamaica Broilers up 15 percent.
The bullish tone of both markets continues, but the Junior Market had hit the top line of an upward sloping channel that could act as resistance and is worth watching. The Main Market is a few thousand points away from its channel top, but those resistance points should be only temporary barriers if they, in fact become that.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market are headed by Elite Diagnostic followed by Medical Disposables and Jetcon Corporation, with the potential to gain between 245 to 283 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by Jamaica Broilers and PanJam Investment, with expected gains of 165 to 385 percent.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Stocks and 19 times for the Main Market. With interest rates on government paper below 5 percent and likely to remain there for a few years, the likelihood is for the average PE ratios to climb higher during the next twelve months.
The Junior Market, with an average PE 12.3 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading well below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17. This represents another 39 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 60 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 6.4 at just 52 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 16.5, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 15 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.8 or 47 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 220 percent and 168 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

JamTeas gains 111% to top ICTOP10 picks

Six Main Market ICTOP15 stocks raked between 23 and 37 percent year to date and seven of the Junior Market picks produced gains from 22 percent to 111 percent for the first four months of 2021.

Jamaican Teas stock price is up 1115 for 2021 and up 234% in just under a year.

The only top performing Main Market stocks for the period not captured by the TOP15 are Ciboney, up a stunning 121 percent at 53 cents, even after the price move up to just over $2 earlier this year, followed by Salada Foods with an incredible rise of 147 percent, Eppley Property Fund with an increase of 46 percent and Proven Investments gaining 28 percent.
The top performing Junior Market stocks to date that were not in the ICTOP15 are Fosrich with a gain of 86 percent, Blue Power 56 percent, Express Catering up 29 percent, Caribbean Flavours at 33 percent and Lasco Manufacturing with a 35 percent increase.
The highlight of the stock market this past week was the 216 percent surge in Carib Cement’s profit, from record revenues that jumped 31 percent for the 2020 first quarter. As expected, the stock jumped to a 52 weeks’ high of $95.50. The company was one of ICTOP 15 listings at the start of the year and is up 40 percent so far and still has much more gains ahead of it. The other notable development is the Main Market recording of gains for 14 days unbroken.
Other stocks in the TOP15 list that have gone on to do well are Carreras up 37 percent, Grace Kennedy with a rise of 35 percent, Jamaica Producers up 33 percent, QWI Investments up 25 and Seprod 23 percent in the Main Market. In the Junior Market, the winners are Caribbean Cream with a gain of 34 percent, Caribbean Producers up 41 percent, Stationery and Office Supplies with a gain of 25 percent. Now out of the top listings are Jamaican Teas with a 111 percent gain for the year to date, Lumber Depot up 88 percent, Lasco Distributors with a rise of 22 percent and MailPac up 25 percent. Future Energy Source that was added to ICTOP 10 earlier this year has a gain of 28 percent, but much more is expected for these stocks in the rest of the year.
There are no changes to companies on the ICTOP10 listings this week. The bullish tone of the Junior Market and the Main Market continues, with more gains expected in the coming week supported by strong technical signals and fundamentals of stocks and the overall market.
Watch these stocks over the next few weeks, Barita Investments, Caribbean Cement, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Producers, PanJam Investment and Sagior Group, MailPac, Access Financial, Lasco Financial, Lasco Distributors, Caribbean Cream, ISP Financial.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market are headed by Elite Diagnostic, followed by Main Event and Medical Disposables, with the potential to gain between 261 to 293 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by PanJam Investment and Jamaica Broilers, with expected gains of 181 to 410 percent.
This week’s focus: Fosrich reported a 22 percent rise in revenues to $549 million, up from $449 million in the prior year with gross profit rising 13 percent to $192 million, from $170 million in 2020 with net profit surging 697 percent to $38.4 million, from only $4.8 million in the 2020 first quarter. Earnings per share jumped to 8 cents from one cent in 2020. Administrative expenses fell slightly to $144 million, from $146 million in 2020 and finance cost slipped to $24.8 million compared to $26.2 million in the 2020 quarter.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Stocks and 19 times for the Main Market. With interest rates on government paper below 5 percent and likely to remain there for a few years, the likelihood is for the average PE ratios to climb higher during the next twelve months.
The Junior Market, with an average PE 13 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading well below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17; this represents another 31 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 50 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 5.8 at just 44 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 16.5, some distance from the 19 the market ended March, suggesting a 20 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.7 or 46 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 248 percent and 175 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Fesco jumps ICTOP10 with 33% gains

Future Energy Source commenced trading on the Junior Market on Friday and closed with a 33 percent gain from the 80 cents public offer price offer to close at $1.06. Its performance saw it slipping from the ICTOP10 list but with room for more growth based on expected 2021/2 earnings.
Future Energy Source was replaced by Main Event, with the latter falling from $4.74 last week to $4.05 this week. The Main Market TOP 10 saw no change to companies on the list. The bullish tone of the Junior Market was joined by the Main Market this past week, with the latter now breaking out of a narrow channel it was trading in for some time, as this publication suggested would happen soon.
The markets made more gains in the past week, with the Main Market recording its ninth day of unbroken gains on Friday, but technical signals suggest a continuation of the rally.
Watch these stocks over the next few weeks, Barita Investments, Caribbean Cement, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Producers, NCB Financial, PanJam Investment and Sagior Group.
The top three stocks in the Junior Market are headed by Elite Diagnostic, followed by Medical Disposables and Jetcon Corporation, with the potential to gain between 285 to 300 percent. The top three Main Market stocks are Radio Jamaica in the number one spot, followed by PanJam Investment and VM Investments, with expected gains of 174 to 388 percent.
Added to the technical indicators is a limited supply of shares for some companies. One such is Caribbean Cream that currently has few offers on the board. The same goes for Elite Diagnostic, Stationery and Office Supplies, Lasco Financial, Main Event, ISP Financial, Cargo Handlers. In the Main Market, its Berger Paints, Jamaica Producers and Radio Jamaica.
The targeted PE ratio for the market averages 20 based on profits of companies reporting full year’s results, up to the second quarter of 2022. Fiscal 2020-21 ended March 2021 with the average PE at 17 for Junior Stocks and 19 times for the Main Market. With interest rates on government paper below 5 percent and likely to remain there for a few years, the likelihood is for the average PE ratios to climb higher during the next twelve months.
The Junior Market, with an average PE 12.9 based on ICInsider.com’s 2021-22 earnings, is currently trading well below the target, as well as the recent historical average of 17; this represents another 32 percent rise in the market that would equate to a rise of 50 percent to March 2022. The Junior Market Top 10 stocks average a mere 5.8 at just 45 percent of the market average, indicating substantial gains ahead. The JSE Main Market ended the week with an overall PE of 16, some distance from the 19 the market ended March at, suggesting a 19 percent rise from now to March 2022. The Main Market TOP 10 trades at a PE of 7.5 or 47 percent of the PE of that market and well off the potential of 20.
The average projected gain for the Junior Market IC TOP 10 stocks is 247 percent and 178 percent for the JSE Main Market, based on 2021-22 earnings. IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to March 2022 and ranked in order of potential gains, based on likely increase for each company, taking into account the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in movements in and out of the lists weekly. Revisions to earnings per share are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.