Long term GOJ interest rates spike to 11% high

Investors garnered interest rates as high as 11 percent on long term bonds issued by the Government of Jamaica last week auctions of three long term bonds that were reopened and raised $10 billion. The average rates were more moderate, with the highest average being 8 percent.
The Government also offered $5 billion of the 10 percent bond due 2037 with a duration of 15.5 years. The auction attracted $6.759 billion that resulted in an average yield of 7.9614 percent. The lowest rate was 6.7 percent for $50 million and the highest success rate was 10 percent. The highest submitted bid was 12.999 percent. A total of 56 bids went after the bond, with 46 being successful.
The 5.675 percent bond due 2029, with a duration of 7.5 years, ended with an average yield of 6.3506 percent. The auction attracted $2.727 billion, of which $1 billion was allocated. The lowest rate was 5.575 percent for $100 million and the highest success rate was 6.94 percent. The highest submitted bid was 11 percent.  This instrument received 43 submissions, with only 18 being successful.
The 4.5 percent bond due 2025, with a duration of 3.5 years, delivered an average yield of 6.2329 percent. Bids from 51 applicants amounting to $4.779 billion chased the $4 billion on offer. Only 44 bids succeeded in getting allocated. The lowest rate was 4.5 percent for $44 million, with the highest success rate of 10.525 percent. The highest submitted bid was 11 percent covering $100 million.
The increased rates come against the background of recent moves by Jamaica’s central bank to hike rates and move towards an era of positive interest rates. Since making their intention known, the bank raised its overnight rate from 0.50 percent to 2 percent in September and November, while rates on 30 days CDs moved to 4.11 percent from 0.59 percent since the beginning of August and 2.15 percent at the September 22 Auction.

Jamaica’s remittances up again in October

Total remittance inflows climbed a respectable 8.8 percent for an increase of US$24 million to US$296 million, up from US$272 million in 2020.
The increase continues the robust growth remittance inflows enjoyed since May last year. It puts the total inflows for the year to date at US44 million short of the total intake for 2020, when US$2.905 billion was taken in for the year to the end of December. At the pace inflows have grown, the take for the current year could hit a record US$3.5 billion, data released by the Bank of Jamaica is suggesting.

BOJ CD rates holding steady

Fresh from hiking their overnight policy rate by 0.50 percent to 2 percent, Bank of Jamaica latest CD offer produced an average yield of 4.34 percent, with the lowest bid coming in at 4 percent.
BOJ offered to sell $9.5 billion of CDs and attracted twice that amount at $18.24 billion. The highest rate payable by the central bank is 4.475 percent, with only 44 percent of the amount of the bid being successful.
The previous CD auction held on November 9 attracted $17 billion for the $12 billion offered and resulted in an average yield of 4.22 percent, with the highest successful bidder getting 91 percent of the amount they placed in the auction with an interest rate of 4.65 percent.

Remittances jump 17% in September

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Total remittance inflows in Jamaica jumped 17.2 per cent or US$44.8 million in September 2021 over the $260 million inflows for September 2020 and lifting the gross inflows for the year to date to US$2.6 billion, just US$300 million less than US$2.9 billion inflows for the 2020 calendar year.
The increase for the month is highly positive, in light of a strong 34.5 percent jump in September 2020 over the 2019 inflows for that month.
The total inflows for last year could be equalled or exceeded with the October numbers and could put the inflows for the year at US$3.6 billion by the end of the year. The numbers for September continues the robust monthly increase since last year May, except for a small decline of 2.4 percent in August this year. For the January to August 2021 period, remittance inflows to Jamaica grew by 25.4 percent to US2.3 billion, up from US$1.836 billion in 2020. Prior to August, inflows grew by 30.4 percent, with June and July being up 10 percent, well below 42 percent increase to May.

The data was obtained from the Bank of jamaica.

Have Interest rates peaked?

Jamaica’s Central Bank 

Interest rates on Certificate of Deposit issued by Bank of Jamaica seem to be levelling off, with the rate at last week’s auction declining from the previous week’s outturn.
Last week’s offer of $7.5 billion in 30 days on Wednesday, 27 October, attracted 76 applications amounting to $13 billion and resulted in an average yield of 3.96 percent, down from 4.53 percent at the auction in the previous week. Bids were received as low as 2.5 percent covering $1.48 billion, with the highest rate bid being 7.34 percent for $20 million. A bid amounting to $550 million received full allocation at 4.79 percent. The total nominal outstanding amount for the 30-day CDs on the settlement date – 29 October, will be $41.5 billion, down from $46.5 billion in mid-October.

BOJ one year CDs 2.74%

Bank of Jamaica’s one-year CD offering of $4.5 billion on Thursday, October 21, ended with an average interest rate of 2.74 percent, much lower than the 4.53 percent the 30 days CD cleared at this past week.
The one year instrument attracted 107applications amounting to $15.88 billion, of which only 27 were successful. The highest bidding rate was 8.99 percent for $423 million, but the highest successful rate was 4.76 percent, resulting in 29.4 percent of the amount applied for being accepted by the Bank of Jamaica. The highest rate payable on the full amount of $140 million applied for was 4.5 percent, while the lowest rate applied for was 1.495 percent on $400 million.
The issue is likely to be regarded by the country’s central bank as highly successful. The success of the issue should result in more longer term offerings to lock up liquidity in the market on a longer term basis than the 30 days instruments that are more costly for the bank and more challenging to manage as they mature on a more frequent basis.
Jamaica is now seeing rising interest rates following the Central Bank’s decision in August to raise as a result of surging inflation. Following that decision, 30 day CD rates climbed sharply and the Bank raised its Overnight rate from 0.50 percent to 1.5 percent in September.

BOJ now paying more than 4.5% on CDs

Interest rates rose to 4.53 percent in the latest Bank of Jamaica 30 day CD offering of $9.5 billion on Wednesday this week, up from 4.17 percent on Wednesday, October 13 and ended with total CDs outstanding falling by $2 billion to $44.5 billion, but there are signs that rates may be peaking, at least for now.
Signs that the rates may be peaking for a while are visible by the decline in the highest bidding rates and the much larger sum applied for at the minimum rate compared to the previous auction. The highest rate payable on the CDs is 5.5 percent, while the lowest rate applied for was 3.75 percent for $2.5 billion, this contrast with the previous auction in which the lowest bid was just $58 million at 3 percent. The highest submitted bid rate came in at 7 percent and is down from 7.99 percent in the previous auction. The auction attracted $14.74 billion from 42 applications, with 24 being successful.

BOJ now paying over 4% on CDs

Interest rates rose to 4.17 percent in the latest Bank of Jamaica 30 day CD offering of 12 billion on Wednesday last week, up from 3.28 percent on Wednesday, October 6 and well over the new overnight rate of 1.5 percent.
Having settled at a low of just over 0.5 percent for the past two years, the latest rate marks a significant shift in a very short time frame, a development that investors should watch carefully.
At the recent auction, the central bank received 53 bids amounting to $14 billion for $12 billion on offer, 46 bids were successful up to 5.27 percent and came after BOJ increased their overnight rate to 1.5 percent. The total nominal outstanding amount for the 30-day CDs $46.5 billion, similar to the week before, but well above the $35.5 billion at the end of July.
At the same time, the Government of Jamaica Treasury bill auction on Wednesday, October 10, rates on the three tenors on offer ended with an average rate of 2.165 percent for the 90 day offer that attracted $2.246 billion for the $700 million on offer. The 181 days offer saw $1.974 billion chasing the $700 million offered and resulted in an average rate of 2.75 percent and the 273 days T-bill pulled in $1.865 billion for $800 million offered and resulted in an average rate of 3.69 percent.
The range for yields for full allotment is 1.45 percent to 2.85 percent for the 91 day T-Bill, 1.5 percent to 3.05 percent or the 182 days T-bill and 2.41 percent to 4.75 percent for the longest dated bill.
On Thursday, October 21, the central bank will auction $4.5 billion 365 days Certificate of deposit.

More interest rate increase

Bank of Jamaica focus is not on the naysayers about its recent move on interest rates that saw the central bank hike overnight policy rate by 100 basis points to 1.5 percent as the average rate on their latest Certificate of Deposit that was offered on Wednesday, October 6, cleared at 3.28 percent up from 2.59 percent at the previous auction a week before.
At the latest auction last week, the central bank received 82 bids amounting to $18.5 billion for $12.5 billion on offer. A total of 51 bids were successful up to 4.25 percent and comes after BOJ increased the overnight rate.
The total nominal outstanding amount for the 30-day CDs on the settlement date of October 8 will be $46.5 billion, up from $45.5 million the week before. Since the start of August, the central bank CDS have pulled in an additional $11.5 billion by increasing the amount in the market from $35 billion.

Remittances slip in August

Remittance inflows into Jamaica slipped by 2.4 per cent or US$7 million to US$273 million from US$280 in August last year that benefited from a robust increase in 2020 and brings the year to date to US$2.3 billion or 25.4 percent over US$1.84 billion accounted for in the similar period in 2020.
Last year August saw a hefty 31 percent surge from US$214 million earned in 2019. At the rate of growth to date, remittance inflows should hit US$2.3 billion this year.
The decline for August is the first monthly decline on a year over year basis since April last year, with a fall of 20 percent. Remittances that surged 42 percent and 37 percent in June and July in 2020 over 2019 is up 10 percent this year in each month.
The largest source market of remittance flows to Jamaica for August 2021 was the USA accounting for 70 percent, of total inflows up from 66.3 percent recorded for August 2020, the bank of Jamaica report states. The central bank also indicates that Canada contributed 11.8 per cent, followed by UK and the Cayman Islands at 10 per cent and 4.9 percent, respectively.