Tourist arrivals into Jamaica continue to grow, according to data released by Grupo Aeroportuario operators of international airports in Montego Bay and Kingston, with arrivals in May probably rising 13 percent above those for 2022, with 544,000 passengers processed, up from 481,400 and for the year to date an increase of 32 percent to 2.89 million from 2.196 million in 2022.
This is the clearest sign of a boom time in Jamaica’s tourism industry.
Montego Bay, the gateway with the highest number of visitors, had a bounce of 10.2 percent to 403,000 incoming and outgoing passengers, up from 366,000 and for the year to date, an increase of 30.2 percent to 2.208 million from 1.696 million in 2022 to May,
Passengers passing through the Norman Manley airport in Kingston jumped 21.9 percent to 141,100 from 115,800 and year to date, an increase of 36.2 percent to 681,700 from 500,400.
According to the Central Bank, annual inflation is projected to again be within the Bank’s inflation target range of 4 to 6 percent by the December 2023 quarter, but it noted that both core inflation and the consumer price indices are now within the 4-6 percent band at 5.7 and 5.8 percent up to April this year.
The dip in the point to point inflation below 6 percent was occasioned by a fall in the All-Jamaica Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 0.4 percent for April 2023 and was influenced mainly by a 4.2 percent fall in the index for the division ‘Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels’. The movement in the division’s index was due to a reduction in the rates for electricity, which resulted in a 12.5 percent fall in the index for the group. There was also a decline in the index for the ‘Transport’ division, which moved down by 0.1 percent due mainly to reduced petrol and air travel costs. The inflation rate was, however, tempered by a 0.6 percent increase in the index for the heaviest weighted division ‘Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages.
The three months bill fell to 7.823 percent at this week’s auction, the lowest since November 2022, when the average rate came in at 7.96 percent. The six months instrument’s previous low of 7.96 percent in September last year came in at 7.975 percent at the recent auction and is also down from 8.32 percent in April this year. The nine months rate of 8.2 percent in July last year and 8.36 percent in April this year fell to 7.999 percent this week.
The Central Bank’s offer of $20 billion to the public attracted $27 billion from 216 bids in going after the amount offered with rates ranging from 7.15 percent to a high of 10.10 percent, with the highest successful rate coming in at 8.16 percent.
At the latest auction of the Bank of Jamaica Fixed Rate 
The auction attracted 257 bids for just over $46.43 billion, with 199 successful. The lowest submitted rate was 7.5 percent and the highest at 10.25 percent, down from 11 percent in the previous auction, with a partially successful bid at 8.25 percent, down from 8.35 percent previously.
The job of fighting high inflation may be substantially done for this round, how efficiently was it executed is another matter that the country needs to have answered. A careful look at reports emanating from the Bank of Jamaica tells a tale of what looks more like guesswork, than scholarly assessment. Don’t take our word for it, compare BOJ’s utterances since 2021 and their outturn.
In May, last year they made an erroneous statement that inflation was still moving higher and would increase over the next two months, in fact the underlying data was suggesting that it was improving. Importantly, at their last meeting at which they reviewed the state of inflation they felt so comfortable that things were in line with their forecast that the next meeting was set for May. Had they looked at the real message that had been screaming at them for 2022 and more so since November they would have taken action to reduce overnight interest rates from then.
