Wigton Windfarms’ shares traded below the IPO price of 50 cents on Friday as attempts to shield the price from falling after announcing a drop in revenues is finally giving way to selling pressure. The Wigton syndrome continues to plaque the Jamaica Stock market with irrational behavior of investors to be seen in the prices of many stocks.
Wigton traded nearly 90% of shares on Thursday.
On August 25, investors bought 5 million shares of Future Energy, up to $2.85 and for the next two trading day’s they just over 10 million units up to $3.29, with 15 million shares trading on the 30th at an average of $2.96. The stock is now trading at $2.04, with a PE ratio of 16, to be one of the more highly priced Junior Market stocks. What is happening here, when viewed against stocks with much lower PEs and good growth prospects?
Radio Jamaica another stock that traded as high as $4.65 on August 25, traded on Friday at $3.11 at a PE ratio of 7. Salada Foods continues to trade around the $7 region at a PE ratio of 43 times current year’s earnings. Wigton Windfarms that investors were not informed until late last year that the contract for their number 2 turbine provide for a reduction in rates for the supplying of electricity to JPS, belatedly traded down to 46 cents on Friday with few bids left in the system, and now trades at a PE of 12.5.
The stock market is a wonderful creation that has helped to enrich participants over the years, like any endeavor the more time spent studying and understanding it the better off those investors will be.
There are thousands of new investors in the market brought on by several new listings on the market, with most listings creating good returns in a relatively short time for early investors.
In the past, investors and scholars developed systems and methods to act as a guide to better investment decisions and thus reduce the love or dislike for a stock or other types of investments and thus reduce emotional decisions.
Technical analysis is a very useful tool used in the investment arena that carries coded messages for persons who understand them. They help investors to avoid excessive behavior in markets and telegraph future trends by using past market movements as the base.
The recent price movements for Radio Jamaica and Fesco show them breaking out of a channel that goes back for months, both companies released results that were price movers and both broke out, with the market not fully there as yet as prices moved too far too fast as such prices pulled back.
A few months after Wigton shares were listed in 2019, ICINsider.com wrote a piece to help investors better understand stock market behavior and prevent losses in the market. The piece captioned “Wigton price dreamers” was published in May of 2019. In light of the irrational trading in Fesco and Salada shares, elements of the article are highlighted below.
Salada Foods traded at a all-time high of $18 on Tuesday.
“Buy now, Ride the $3 wave”. That is the advice of one online investor to another, regarding the likely performance of the Wigton Windfarm stock after trading, on the first day of listing at 83 cents with a PE of 14, placing the value in the upper half of the most valued main market stocks. The premium over net asset value another measure of valuation is 291 percent above the net asset value. At $3, the stock would trade at a stunningly high PE ratio of 50 times 2019 and 2020 earnings. The only main market stock close to that valuation is Kingston Wharves (KW) at 35 times 2019 earnings and that is coming down from more than 50 times 2018 earnings when it traded at $85.
Unlike KW, which has less than 10 percent of the shareholding that will trade, amounting to a few million units, Wigton has billion of shares that will trade. The high liquidity of the shares almost ensures that they will not become overvalued.
Most investors who would be big buyers are more professional and are versed in the valuation levels of stocks. Accordingly, they are unlikely to be buying a stock that has doubtful expansion credentials at an inflated value. The most popular valuation tool, the PE ratio does not support a price much higher than $1.20, with EPS of 60 cents per share. A price of $1.20 equates to a high PE ratio of 20. Only a few stocks are valued close to this multiple and many of them have prospects for profits to grow. Wigton has no immediate prospects for growth in earnings, pricing it at 20 times EPS would therefore be unwise. The market will speak but the heavy selling on Friday when it first traded is more in line with the thinking that the top is not far off. Investors who buy shares above the accepted market norm will likely get crushed.
In the investment world staying close to the crowd with pricing is a prudent investment practice that tends to be less costly than trying to predict lofty heights for stocks to reach.
PE ratios are there to give a sense of appropriate values, when investors try to break away from where the bulk of investors place a value of a stock, they usually end up regret the move.
The Jamaica Stock Exchange has granted 45 days extension for companies to file their audited financial statements for 2021 to July 14, 2021. The extension assists management and auditors in managing the execution of audits at a challenging time and that may be fine, but what about the users of the reports?
They may be right about the Jamaican capital market, but they are missing the real issues. The stock prices of listed companies in T&T Stock Exchange have been priced out of the reach of the average Trinidadians and the directors don’t seem to understand that or worse seem to care about the smaller investors. 
National Enterprises gained 1 cent to close at $2.81 in switching ownership of 10,000 units, National Flour Mills traded 1,500 shares at $2.35, NCB Financial Group rose 28 cents to $8.50 in exchanging 5,955 stock units. Prestige Holdings dropped 49 cents to close at $7.01 with an exchange of 2,800 units, Republic Financial Holdings rose 72 cents to $132.98 trading 8,690 shares, Scotiabank climbed 15 cents in closing at $54.65 after exchanging 2,942 units. Trinidad & Tobago NGL settled at $13.50 with an exchange of 49,947 shares, Trinidad Cement gained 40 cents in ending at $3.40 while exchanging 19,255 shares, Unilever Caribbean inched 1 cent higher to close at $16.33 while exchanging 12,000 shares and West Indian Tobacco closed at $32.98 after exchanging 20,810 stock units.
Corporate taxes need to be reformed. Businesses and their owners should pay one rate based on profits. The tax rate on businesses should be around 20-25 percent with no taxes on dividends. As such, shareholders would pay taxes on profit once not twice, with the latter being the case. All asset taxes that drive up borrowing costs must be removed and thereby reduce the distortion in the system. Payroll tax credits must be eliminated; they are a wasteful use of the country’s taxes. The excessive tax on financial institutions must also be eliminated as they are taxes on the end users, not the financial institutions, and they drive up the cost of production.
The above are some of the tax proposals that Phillips and his team should be addressing as reforming them could push economic growth. Hiking the minimum wage sharply will not only hurt economic growth, but it will also surely lead to reduced employment.
The fact that we are seeing a repeat of this problem is a clear indication that there needs to be changes at the board level of the JSE.
Shocking 4 years of Cargo Handlers errors
The number of shares issued by publicly listed companies is very important information for investors to know, but investors would not think so when examining interim financial statements in Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago of some of the companies.
There have been so many occasions one has to search high and low to find it if at all it is reported in the interim numbers. This is such a simple matter and the stock exchanges in the region could cure it easily, by making it one of the items that must be included in quarterly reports. It should be included as a part of the statement of movement in Shareholders’ equity.
Take the matter of segment reporting. Some companies report it quarterly and some only annually. Most correctly report the current period and the comparative previous year’s period. Why can’t the JSE insist on some minimum standards for the benefit of investors so they get information consistently? Limners and Bards is the latest company to provide a quarterly report with no segment results yet they report it in the audited report albeit just one year forcing investors to have to go back to the previous year’s report for the comparison. Seems if that is the approach they should just report the current year’s figures and let investors go back to the previous year’s reports for profit and balance sheet information.
Communication with investors is a subjective matter but there are some simple matters that it just takes some thinking or consulting to get right.
The latest shocking reporting is that of Cargo Handlers that shows the number of shares issued as a part of the statement of shareholders’ equity. The oddity is the company reporting only 37.466 million issued shares since 2018 when it increased to more than 374 million units. The Jamaica Stock Exchange website shows them as having 416.25 million shares issued and the audited accounts show that the change took place in 2018 the numbers moving from 37.485 to 374.653 million shares. One wonders why no one discovered this glaring error when the list of top 10 shareholders show four of them having more shares than what they list as issued. The error goes back to 2018 for all of the quarterly reports.
This is such a glaring error and neither the Stock Exchange, the Financial Services Commission the directors of the company or its accounting staff have found out.
Our reporting standards are not up to scratch and some persons in the financial system love to talk about best practices globally.
The vast majority of listed companies report profit results with direct and indirect costs and gross profit. But others do not. The group shockingly includes GraceKennedy, 138 Student Living, Knutsford Express. It is full time that companies lift the standard of reporting so that investors can get pertinent information to use in their investment decision making. In response to a question put to Don Wehby about the bulking of all cost on the profit statement suggest that they are in compliance with accounting standards, but that is such a lame and shocking excuse from a company of such standing in the country. Seprod produces it, Jamaica Broilers does it and several other listed companies so why not Grace. Are grace directors suggesting that their shareholders are lesser persons than those of other companies? The case of 138 Student Living is shocking when one considers that the Chairman, Ian Parsard is also Group Senior Vice President – Finance & Corporate Planning at Jamaica Broilers.
AMG Packaging is in a class by itself when it comes to poor communication. The company has embarked on a major capital project, but the directors appear to be of the view that minority shareholders are best kept in as much darkness as possible about it. The audited accounts for 2020 are silent on any commitment to the project.
The latest quarterly the only capital spend, is shown as work in progress on the balance sheet in the amount of $57 million, with no comments on the progress, the total commitment and when it is expected to be complete and be in use. Worse there are no comments on its use. It is noted that the purpose has moved from a warehouse to a factory between 2018 and now.
In the 2018 annual report, the Chairman stated that “the Company recently took an option to purchase an adjoining property. If the transaction is completed, the additional space will be used to alleviate some of the space constraints in the existing facility, making operations more efficient.”
In the 2019 annual report “The Company completed the acquisition on the property at 12 Retirement Crescent which will allow us to expand our operations and to better serve our customers.” The company also stated that they “obtained funding from Proven Wealth Limited to assist with the development of 12 Retirement Crescent. The KSAC is in the process of reviewing the architectural drawings for 12 Retirement.”
The 2020 annual report states, “the company plans on utilizing the strong cash and cash equivalents position into developing 12 Retirement Crescent. The pandemic had caused the development of 12 Retirement Crescent to delay from 2020 to 2021. A contractor has been chosen and the building of an additional 11,370 square feet is set to begin in February 2021.”
In the results to February this year, the only comment made about the development is “that the new steel frame warehouse purchased from China arrived and construction commenced. The financial statement shows WIP at $49 million, with a zero balance in the November quarter.”