Big price rise in ICTOP10

The markets closed with contrasting styles on Friday, with Junior Market listed Caribbean Cream dropping 27 percent to $4.01 and the main market listed Radio Jamaica rising 21 percent to $2.90, with the stock triggering the circuit breaker as investors exchanged 2.9 million units of the company’s shares on Friday.
It is unclear why RJR, a stock that was previously under selling pressure, surprisingly, surged at the week’s close. Caribbean Cream came under pressure after the company reported a loss for the year to February. Investors will have to await the first quarter results in a few days to determine whether the new year will see a return to brighter days.
Five Junior Market ICTOP10 stocks fell and four rose, while in the TOP10 Main Market, six stocks gained and two fell with none exceeding 4 percent, but for RJR.
Elsewhere in the Junior Market, C2000 climbed 11 percent to $10.30. In comparison, Access Financial and Elite Diagnostic gained 5 percent each to close the week at $21.01 and $3.50, respectively. In contrast, Caribbean Assurance Brokers lost 6 percent as Jetcon Corporation and Lasco Financial all fell 5 percent.
The week ended with one new listing in the TOP10 as mild gains by General Accident and a fall in the price of Dolphin Cove resulted in them swapping places.
VM Investments moved out in the TOP10 Main Market and Key Insurance moved into the TOP 10.
It is pretty clear that many investors are investing in the dark with the hope that some overvalued stocks will continue to deliver above average gains into the future, but not many people know that yesterday’s winners may not have tomorrow’s significant gains. They ignore the long established feature of the market going back almost 40 years of the IC 80/20 rule and rule of 72. The IC 80/20 rule is that only two out of ten stocks on average in one year end up in the top 10 the following year. The essence of this is that it is not prudent to invest in the vast majority of last year’s top 10 stocks, especially those that did exceptionally well and are unlikely to repeat.
Rule of 72 is simple. Divide 72 by the rate of return easily shows how quickly money can double. How does this apply to stocks? Last year the Junior Market rose 30 percent and for 2022, so far, by 27 percent. These growth rates indicate that an investment in all 45 stocks in this market would double every two and a half years based on the 2021 increase and roughly one year and four months using the year to date growth. What all of this is saying, investors don’t need to be chasing popular stocks to make good money in the market, choose those that are undervalued, with profit set to grow sufficiently to give a boost to the stock price.
Keep a careful watch on AMG Packaging, Dolphin Cove, Express Catering, Lasco Distributors, Lasco Manufacturing and Stationery and Office Supplies. Dolphin Cove, Caribbean Producers and Express Catering will be significant beneficiaries of the strong rebound in tourist arrivals.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market TOP 10 is 6.2, well below the market average of 15, while the Junior Market Top 10 PE is six versus the market at 12.9. The Junior Market TOP10 is projected to gain an average of 242 percent to May 2023 and the Main Market 229 percent.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list may or may not include the best companies in the market. ranks stocks based on projected earnings to highlight winners from the rest, allowing investors to focus on potential winning stocks and helping to remove emotional attachments to stocks that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns up to the end of May 2023 and are ranked in order of potential gains, based on the possible increase for each company, considering the earnings and PE ratios for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

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