ISP Finance & Guardian join ICTOP10

The performance of the Jamaica Stock Exchange in the near term is expected to be influenced by the pile of results dumped on the market in the past week, with varying degrees of success. Based on results for the December quarter, Caribbean Producers’ earnings were adjusted down to $1.15 per share, resulting in the stock falling out of the TOP10, with Guardian Holdings replacing it and ISP Finance entering the Junior Market listing in replacing Elite Diagnostic following the release of full year earnings, with ICInsider.com projected earnings per share of $4 for ISP for 2024.
For a second consecutive week, the Junior Market ended with minimal price changes, ranging from 4 percent and less and none with a negative price movement, while the Main Market had only two stocks with negative price changes, with Pulse Investments, the highest with a fall of 7 percent to $1.85 and 138 Student Living slipping 3 percent, while Margaritaville popped 18 percent to close at the week at $17.48, Caribbean Producers rose 6 percent to $9.64 following the release of nine months results that saw profit for the second quarter rising 17.6 percent to US$2 million but with the six months results, down marginally to US$3.28 million versus $3.35 million in 2022. Key Insurance rose 5 percent to $2.31 and Palace Amusement gained 4 percent to close at $1.25 following news of a sold-out opening night for the Marley movie that nearly doubled that of the highly successful Black Panther.
For the full list of weekly percentage changes for the ICTOP10 stocks, check the attached charts that now carry a column of the weekly percentage price movements.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market ICTOP 10 stands at 5.4, well below the market average of 13.7 and the Junior Market TOP10 sits at 7.3 just over half of the market, with an average of 13.4.
The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 279 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings, providing better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 177 percent over the same period.
In the Main Market ICTOP 10, a total of 14 of the most highly valued stocks representing 29 percent of the Main Market are priced at a PE of 15 to 110, with an average of 30 and 24 excluding the highest PE ratios, and a PE of 25 for the top half and 17 excluding the stocks with overweight values.
In the Junior Market IC TOP10 are 13 stocks, or 27 percent of the market, with PEs ranging from 15 to 45, averaging 21, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 18, possibly the lowest fair value for stocks, currently.
Of great import is that the averages of both markets are now converging around a PE of 20 for close to a third of the market, as the year is coming to a close and with more information available on the full year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns on or around May 2024 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Junior Market rallied on Friday

Trading closed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange on Friday, with a 29 percent decline in the volume of stocks traded at a 15 percent lower value than Thursday, following trading in 42 securities compared with 41 on Thursday and ending with prices of 21 rising, 14 declining and seven closing unchanged.
Investors traded 4,262,868 shares for $11,405,667 compared with 6,026,066 units at $13,427,737 on Thursday.
Trading averaged 101,497 shares at $271,563, compared to 146,977 units at $327,506 on Thursday. Trading for the month to date, averaged 200,192 units at $479,266 down from 209,968 stocks at $499,840 on the previous day and January with an average of 175,081 units at $401,738.
Spur Tree Spices led trading with 904,399 shares followed by Image Plus with 904,064 units and Mailpac Group with 458,730 stocks for 10.8 percent market share.
At the close of trading, the Junior Market Index gained 4.31 points to culminate at 3,812.89.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average PE Ratio of 13.4, based on last traded prices in conjunction with earnings projected by ICInsider.com for the financial years ending around August 2024.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows four stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and six with lower offers.
At the close, Access Financial declined by 8 cents to end trading at $22.60 after a transfer of 4,253 stocks, AMG Packaging popped 28 cents to close at $3 with investors trading 26,000 units, Consolidated Bakeries fell 23 cents and ended at $1.98, with 120,000 shares passing through the exchange. Fontana skidded 23 cents in closing at $10.25 with a transfer of 166,963 stock units, Honey Bun advanced 39 cents to close at $6.69 after investors ended up trading 16,191 shares, KLE Group rose 14 cents to $2.39 after exchanging 92 stocks. Knutsford Express gained 8 cents in closing at $12.38, with two units crossing the market, Lasco Distributors rallied 13 cents and ended at $4 in trading 22,865 stock units, Limners and Bards increased 15 cents to end at $1.62 after 853 shares passed through the market. Lumber Depot popped 10 cents to close at $2.30 while exchanging 196,403 units, Paramount Trading sank 21 cents to $1.27 with traders dealing in 2,814 stocks and tTech rose 49 cents to close at $2.49 in an exchange of just one stock unit.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

Junior Market slips on Thursday

Declining stocks edged out rising ones at the close of trading on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange Thursday, following an increase in trading activity resulting from a 74 percent rise in the volume of stocks traded, valued 51 percent more than for trading on Tuesday following activity in 41 securities compared with 45 on Tuesday and ending with prices of 14 rising, 16 declining and 11 closing unchanged.
The market closed trading of 6,026,066 shares for $13,427,737 compared with 3,460,585 stock units at $8,913,356 on Tuesday, following release of several results of companies for the December quarter prior to the start of trading.
Trading averaged 146,977 shares at $327,506, compared with 76,902 units at $198,075 on Tuesday with the month to date, averaging 209,968 units at $499,840 compared with 216,711 stock units at $518,289 on the previous day and January with an average of 175,081 units at $401,738.
Mailpac Group led trading with 2.05 million shares for 34.1 percent of total volume followed by Image Plus with 783,408 units for 13 percent of the day’s trade and One Great Studio with 731,290 units for 12.1 percent market share.
At the close of trading, the Junior Market Index dipped 5.26 points to end trading at 3,808.58.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average PE Ratio of 13.4, based on last traded prices in conjunction with earnings projected by ICInsider.com for the financial years ending around August 2024.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows one stock ended with a bid higher than the last selling price and five with lower offers.
At the close, Access Financial popped $1.27 to close at $22.68 with investors trading 774 shares, CAC 2000 climbed 38 cents to $4.21 in an exchange of 469 units, Caribbean Flavours increased 10 cents and ended at $1.70 with investors swapping 3,038 stocks. Derrimon Trading rose 15 cents in closing at $2.06 in an exchange of 16,927 stock units, Dolphin Cove rallied 97 cents to end at $18.97 after an exchange of 7,290 shares, Elite Diagnostic advanced 8 cents in closing at $1.77 after investors traded 144,846 units. Fontana dropped 12 cents to $10.48 with an exchange of 42,236 stocks, Honey Bun sank 39 cents to end at $6.30, with 24,354 stock units crossing the market, Jamaican Teas shed 18 cents to close at $2.40 with traders dealing in 124,722 shares. Knutsford Express declined 8 cents and ended at $12.30 after a transfer of 1,785 stocks, Lasco Distributors gained 11 cents to $3.87 in switching ownership of 27,706 units, Lasco Financial fell 13 cents to close at $1.91 while exchanging 5,933 stocks. Lasco Manufacturing dipped 10 cents to end at $4.90 with 11,723 shares clearing the market, Limners and Bards lost 18 cents in closing at $1.47 after an exchange of 9,866 stock units, Lumber Depot skidded 12 cents to $2.20, with 185,704 units changing hands. Mailpac Group popped 19 cents to $2.38, with an exchange of 2,052,755 stocks and Medical Disposables increased 18 cents and ended at $2.70 with investors transferring 11,894 shares.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

Trading plunges on Junior Market

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Trading dropped sharply on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange Tuesday, with a decline of 71 percent in the volume of stocks traded, following a 65 percent fall in value compared with Monday’s trading, resulting in 45 securities changing hands compared with 42 on Monday and ending with prices of 10 stocks rising, 26 declining and nine closing unchanged.
The market closed with an exchange of 3,460,585 shares for $8,913,356 down from 11,955,696 units at $25,250,753 on Monday.
Trading averaged 76,902 shares for $198,075 compared to 284,659 units at $601,208 on Monday with the month to date, averaging 216,711 stock units at $518,289 compared to 235,325 stock units at $560,921 on the previous day and January with an average of 175,081 units at $401,738.
Tropical Battery led trading with 847,958 shares for 24.5 percent of total volume followed by One Great Studio with 346,363 units for 10 percent of the day’s trade and Indies Pharma with 292,036 units for 8.4 percent market share.
At the close of trading, the Junior Market Index sank 19.52 points to wrap-up trading at 3,813.84.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average PE Ratio of 13.4, based on last traded prices in conjunction with earnings projected by ICInsider.com for the financial years ending around August 2024.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows seven stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and three with lower offers.
At the close, Access Financial dropped $1.24 to close at $21.41 with investors dealing in a mere 76 stock units, AMG Packaging shed 24 cents to close at $2.71 in an exchange of 1,265 shares, CAC 2000 declined 68 cents to end at $3.83 with traders dealing in 526 units. Caribbean Flavours lost 10 cents in closing at $1.60, with 2,000 stocks crossing the market, Consolidated Bakeries increased 11 cents and ended at $2.21 with investors trading 2,000 shares, Dolphin Cove skidded 32 cents to $18 and closed with an exchange of 7,149 units. Elite Diagnostic sank 12 cents in closing at $1.69 after a transfer of 19,333 stocks, Everything Fresh dipped 18 cents and ended at $1.52 in trading 13,655 stock units, Fontana climbed 28 cents to close at $10.60 after 52,304 shares passed through the market. Honey Bun rose 19 cents to end at $6.69 with investors transferring 768 stocks, Indies Pharma fell 8 cents in closing at $2.60 in an exchange of 292,036 units, ISP Finance dropped $6.33 to $25.02 with 16 stock units clearing the market. Jamaican Teas rallied 9 cents and ended at $2.58 with a transfer of 111,114 shares, Lasco Distributors fell 22 cents to close at $3.76 after an exchange of 86,350 stock units, Lasco Manufacturing popped 14 cents to end at $5 after trading 166,322 stocks. Limners and Bards gained 10 cents in closing at $1.65 with an exchange of 6,102 units, Lumber Depot fell 18 cents to $2.32, with 110,547 shares crossing the market, Mailpac Group advanced 9 cents to end at $2.19 with investors exchanging 86,500 stock units, ahead of the company announcing the acquisition of MyCart Express, a Jamaican based courier service company. Main Event dipped 13 cents to close at $14.79 in switching ownership of 248 stocks, Medical Disposables sank 20 cents and ended at $2.52, with 262 stock units crossing the exchange, Spur Tree Spices shed 8 cents to $2.32 with investors swapping 200,107 shares and Tropical Battery declined 15 cents in closing at $2.55 after exchanging 847,958 units after the company reported a solid 45 percent growth in their first quarter profit.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

Junior Market slips on Monday

Trading closed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange Monday, with a 25 percent decline in the volume of stocks traded, with a 30 percent lower value than Friday and ended with trading in 42 securities compared with 40 on Friday and ending with prices of 14 rising, 15 declining and 13 closing unchanged.
The market ended trading on Monday as 11,955,696 shares changed hands at $25,250,753 down from 15,974,371 units at $35,900,988 on Friday.
Trading averaged 284,659 shares at $601,208 compared to 399,359 units at $897,525 on Friday with trading month to date, averaging 235,325 units at $560,921 up from 228,325 stock units at $555,204 that was previously traded and January with an average of 175,081 units at $401,738.
Derrimon Trading led trading with 5.46 million shares, Mailpac Group with 1.44 million units and One Great Studio with 1.10 million stock units for 9.2 percent of the day’s trade.
At the close of trading, the Junior Market Index dropped 14.17 points to lock up trading at 3,833.36.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average PE Ratio of 13.6, based on last traded prices in conjunction with earnings projected by ICInsider.com for their financial years ending around August 2024.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows two stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and four with lower offers.
At the close, Cargo Handlers rose 9 cents in closing at $14.59 after 3,000 units passed through the market, Consolidated Bakeries sank 11 cents to $2.10 with investors dealing in 304 stocks, Dolla Financial fell 10 cents to end at $2.90 t with 175,289 shares clearing the market. Dolphin Cove fell 66 cents and ended at $18.32 after an exchange of 3,094 stock units, Elite Diagnostic rallied 17 cents to close at $1.81 with 541,872 shares crossing the market, Fontana shed 18 cents to $10.32 with investors transferring 123,834 stocks. Indies Pharma lost 11 cents in closing at $2.68 in switching ownership of 42,921 units, Knutsford Express gained $1 and ended at $12.38 after an exchange of 960 stock units, Lasco Distributors popped 8 cents to end at $3.98 in an exchange of 27,000 shares. Limners and Bards skidded 14 cents to close at $1.55, with investors trading 29,784 stocks, Main Event dropped 8 cents to $14.92 with a transfer of 5,780 units, MFS Capital Partners dipped 9 cents and ended at $2.20 with 18,441 stock units changing hands. Spur Tree Spices advanced 15 cents to close at $2.40 with investors trading 101,446 shares and Tropical Battery climbed 30 cents to end at $2.70 after a transfer of 378,410 stock units.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

Two Lasco companies head to JSE Main Market

Lasco Distributors and Lasco Manufacturing will be graduating to the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, effective Wednesday, March 27, 2024.
The companies state in their report to investors and posted on the Jamaica Stock Exchange stated that the exchange approved to graduate to the Main Market.

The Lasco companies were some of the early listings on the Junior Market in 2010, with a listing on October 12, 2010.
In the first year of listing on the Junior Market, Lasco Manufacturing generated revenues of $2.97 billion and a profit of $401 million after tax and reported for the nine months to December last year, revenues of $9.24 billion and profit of $1.7 billion, with Shareholders’ equity climbing to $12.3 billion from $830 million at the end of March 2011.
Lasco Distributors reported revenues of $6.76 billion and a profit of $306 million after tax for the year to March 2011 and generated revenues of $21.86 billion for the nine months to December last year and profit of $1.2 billion, with Shareholders’ equity climbing to $9.25 billion from $727 million at the end of September 2010.

ICTOP10 reaping from bullish market

The start of a bull market is appearing with the Jamaica Stock Exchange moving higher, partially helped by rising profits of some companies, as a result, the USD market is solidly in the black for 2024 to date, with a rise of 11 percent while the Main Market sits with a gain of 2.9 percent and the Junior Market is now back at the 2023 end of year level on Friday, but just below. At the same time two listings reported nine months results reflecting improving profit that should help the stock prices in the weeks ahead.
During the week new results were released to the market, with mostly positive profit outcomes that should aid the prices of stocks going forward as the results help to lay a foundation for prices in the short term as this provides investors with a better sense of valuations of these companies. There will be more releases this week as the deadline date for their release is this week for companies that have not opted for 60 days publication of audited accounts.
Earnings were revised downwards by a few cents for Lasco Distributors and Lasco Manufacturing, following the release of nine months results, that show continued growth in profits.
Last week IC Insider.com reported Scotia Group and TransJamaican Highway that traded at 52 weeks’ high they now seem to have topped out for a while, with both undervalued with quite some room to run for 2024. Scotia has an undisclosed amount on offer at $46.
The past week ended with minimal price changes for Junior Market stocks but the Main Market threw up a few, with General Accident rising 12 percent to close at $5.30, followed by JMMB Group up 10 percent to $26.38 and Caribbean Producers up 4 percent to $9.09 as Margaritaville dropped 15 percent to $14.86 and Palace Amusement lost 8 percent to close at $1.20.
As was the case for the previous week the markets closed with no addition to the ICInsider.com TOP 10 stocks.
For the full list of weekly percentage changes for the ICTOP10 stocks, check the attached charts that now carry a column of the weekly percentage price movements.
The average PE for the JSE Main Market ICTOP 10 stands at 5.3, well below the market average of 13.7 and the Junior Market TOP10 sits at 7.,5 just over half of the market, with an average of 13.6
The Main Market ICTOP10 is projected to gain an average of 287 percent by May 2024, based on 2023 forecasted earnings, providing better values than the Junior Market with the potential to gain 169 percent over the same time frame.
In the Main Market ICTOP 10, a total of 15 of the most highly valued stocks representing 31 percent of the Main Market are priced at a PE of 15 to 108, with an average of 30 and 21 excluding the highest PE ratios, and a PE of 25 for the top half and 18 excluding the stocks with overweight values.
In the Junior Market IC TOP10 are 13 stocks, or 27 percent of the market, with PEs ranging from 15 to 45, averaging 22, well above the market’s average. The top half of the market has an average PE of 18, possibly the lowest fair value for stocks, currently.
Of great import is that the averages of both markets are now converging around a PE of 20 for close to a third of the market, as the year is coming to a close and with more information available on the full year’s earnings.
ICTOP10 focuses on likely yearly winners, accordingly, the list includes some of the best companies in the market, but this is not always so. ICInsider.com ranks stocks based on projected earnings, allowing investors to focus on the most undervalued stocks and helping to remove emotions in selecting stocks for investments that often result in costly mistakes.
IC TOP10 stocks will likely deliver the best returns on or around May 2024 and are ranked in order of potential gains, computed using projected earnings for the current fiscal year. Expected values will change as stock prices fluctuate and result in weekly movements in and out of the lists. Revisions to earnings are ongoing, based on receipt of new information.

Persons who compiled this report may have an interest in securities commented on in this report.

Near wipe out at Junior Market

Investors pushed the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange solidly into the black in early morning trading Friday, but with the market pulled back in the dying moments of the afternoon session to close fractionally lower than the 2023 close after a 174 percent rise in the volume of stocks traded, after 204 percent more money entered the market than Thursday with trading in 40 securities compared with 42 on Thursday and ending with prices of 13 rising, 15 declining and 12 closing unchanged.
At the close, the Junior Market Index gained 15.02 points to lock up trading at 3,847.53 just below the 3,848.33 points close for 2023 and could be moving into positive territory sooner than later.
The market closed trading with an exchange of 15,974,371 shares for $35,900,988 up from 5,836,386 units at $11,800,314 on Thursday.
Trading averaged 399,359 shares at $897,525, compared with 138,962 units at $280,960 on Thursday with the month to date, averaging 228,325 units at $555,204 compared to 201,600 stock units at $501,717 on the previous day and up from January with an average of 175,081 units at $401,738.
Derrimon Trading led trading with 7.31 million shares for 45.7 percent of total volume followed by Dolla Financial with 2.62 million units for 16.4 percent of the day’s trade, Tropical Battery closed with 1.38 million units for 8.6 percent market share after the price hit an 52 weeks’ intraday high of $2.70 but closed the day lower and Mailpac Group with 1.18 million units for 7.4 percent of total volume.
The Junior Market ended trading with an average PE Ratio of 13.6, based on the last traded prices in conjunction with earnings projected by ICInsider.com for the financial years ending around August 2024.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows just two stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices and one with a lower offer.
At the close, AMG Packaging increased 30 cents to end at $2.90, with 2,500 shares crossing the exchange, Caribbean Assurance Brokers climbed 33 cents to $2.42 in trading 4,084 shares, Caribbean Cream popped 40 cents to $3.90 after an exchange of 1,326 units. Derrimon Trading declined 9 cents and ended at $1.90 after 7,306,028 stocks passed through the market, Dolla Financial advanced 19 cents to close at $3 in an exchange of 2,620,637 shares, Fontana rose 25 cents to $10.50 with traders dealing in 11,370 stock units. Indies Pharma gained 9 cents in closing at $2.79 after a transfer of 82,718 stocks, Jamaican Teas fell 9 cents to close at $2.50 with 176,090 stock units clearing the market, KLE Group shed 17 cents and ended at $2.25 after an exchange of 3,459 shares. Knutsford Express dropped $1.01 to end at $11.38 with investors transferring a mere 145 units, Lasco Distributors lost 20 cents to close at $3.90 in switching ownership of 31,747 stocks, Limners and Bards rallied 39 cents to close at $1.69 as investors exchanged 30,459 stock units. Lumber Depot dipped 10 cents and ended at $2.50 with a transfer of 40,612 shares, Mailpac Group sank 9 cents in closing at $2.10 while exchanging 1,176,745 stock units, MFS Capital Partners increased 18 cents to end at $2.29 with investors dealing in 225,405 stocks and Spur Tree Spices skidded 20 cents in closing at $2.25, with 120,480 units crossing the market.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

ICTOP 15 Main & Junior Market stocks for 2024

Stocks are set for a major ride higher in 2024 following two years of subpar performance of the Jamaica Stock Exchange. The market did not perform well in 2023, the Main Market fell 8.5 percent and the Junior Market the US dollar market declined by 3.5 percent and 1.2 percent respectively, but technical reading of the Main Market is pointing to a solid rally ahead, with some stocks breaking out of a prolonged period of consolidation.
Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) raised interest rates in 2021 with the overnight rate landing at 7 percent in November 2022 and has remained there since, with BOJ keeping a tight lid on market rates by the use of Certificate of Deposits with rates mostly around 10 percent on average, to tame inflation that peaked close to 12 percent in early 2023.
The stock market has not performed well in that environment. Contrasting that with the US where the Federal Reserve raised rates over two years, with the last increase in July last year. Notwithstanding, the US stock market indices were racing forward and are now at record levels while the JSE Main Market is still below the Covid-19-affected levels but the Junior Market trades at much higher levels than the lows of 2020.
Many investors consider that higher interest rates reduce stock prices, but they are only partially correct. Interest rates affect the valuation of stocks not necessarily the price of stocks. Put another way, higher rates reduce the PE ratios used to value stocks but if profits are rising faster than the increase in rates, stock values will tend to rise as the company is more valuable despite the rate increase. With rising rates the PE ratio mostly used in stock valuation will fall with rising rates and rise when rates are declining.

The Junior Market is presently in a triangular formation that will lead to a big breakout soon.

If profits don’t rise above the level of PE decline then the market will most likely adjust the stock price down. So while interest rates remained stable in 2023 at levels higher than 2021, a total of 31 companies posted gains in the market last year. That is the reason why Scotia Group posted gains from late 2023 into 2024, with some others doing likewise. Other factors to consider are that higher rates may result in higher interest costs for some companies or reduced revenues that could reduce profit but companies with investment funds may enjoy higher profits as they may enjoy increased interest income.
The lack of performance for the Jamaica Stock Exchange last year was not interest rates, but mostly lacklustre profit performance by several companies. What the issue illustrates is the import of careful stock selection with a focus on companies with a good track record of growing profits consistently over several years.
Technical indicators are pointing to a bottoming out of the Main Market that has broken out from a market squeeze, with technical indicators indicating a huge run ahead for the market, see market index chart. At the same time, the Junior Market closed 2023, with a negative undertone that could remain in place for a while until events push it in a new direction. Company profits seem the most likely factor in the medium term.
Part of the decline in the Junior Market in 2023 is due to an overall level of over-exuberance by investors in 2022, pushing the prices of a limited number of Junior Market stocks to unrealistic levels, with sharp correction for some of these in 2023 and helping to drag the market. The situation in the Main Market was somewhat different with a lack of interest from institutional investors until the final quarter of the year which is reflected in a continuous slide in the Main Market Index throughout the year until the end of September, indeed from a two-year high of 461,783 points on the All Jamaica Composite Index in May 2022 until it bottomed at the end of September 2023 at 344,153 points and put on almost 23,000 points to the end of the year. While the Main Market declined for two consecutive years, the Junior Market was experiencing its first yearly decline since 2020.
Inflation moderated during the year within the central bank’s target of 4 to 6 percent on a number of occasions. By the end of November, the year over year inflation rate was just above the bank’s upper limit of 6 percent, with the rate hitting 6.9 percent in December. Certain price adjustments particularly in public transportation impacted inflation negatively towards the latter part of the year, some of these may carry over into 2024. The bank also fears possible wage increases that could be unusually high and place upward pressure on inflation.
For the first three months of 2024, it should be instructive to see where inflation is likely to be and what could become of interest rates during the year. What is clear is that falling market rates in the USA are likely to set the tone ultimately in Jamaica and that should be aided by expectations that the FED will start reducing rates during the second quarter of 2024.
A look at the stock market at this juncture suggests that profits should continue to be positive as can be seen from a compilation of company results for the third quarter of 2023. Data shows that profits for the nine months are up 4 percent and for the quarter up a B 46 percent over similar periods in 2022. A major part of the drag on profits was approximately $11 billion provisions made by NCB Financial for staff redundancies and one-time bonus compensation.
Barring increased interest rates, the Jamaican economy should grow just around two percent in 20224 and that ought to be sufficient to help generate increased demand for goods and services and assist many listed companies to increase profits from existing operations. Expanding companies will see above average performances.
The Junior Market and the Main Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange are flashing bullish signals that suggest an uptick in the market. This is reflected in projected PE ratios for 2024 for both markets with the projected ratios well below the current levels of valuation for 2023.
The average PE for the JSE Main and Junior Market for 2024 based on that year’s earnings is 10.5 and 9 respectively, compared to the current levels of 14 based on 2023 earnings, at the same time the ICTOP 15 based on 2024 earnings stand at around 5, well below the market average of 14, barring increases in interest rates and disappointing profits, PE ratios should return to the average around 14, resulting in a 180 percent jump in values for the IC TOP15 stocks during 2024 at the minimum, and more if the country’s central bank lowers rates during 2024, with a 50 percent rise in the overall market.
Data for the market in 2023 showed that companies with outstanding profit growth found favour with investors who bid the prices of those stocks higher in most cases. Stocks of companies with profit declining or with moderate profit increases were mostly marked down by the investing public. Examples, are to be found in TransJamaican Highway, Lasco Distributors, Lasco Manufacturers, Dolphin Cove, General Accident, Fontana, Main Event, Knutsford Express and Scotia Group with Wisynco Group to name a few that enjoyed price gains. A number of the performances of these stocks benefited from recovery in the tourism sector directly or indirectly.
For 2024, companies that are expanding may be worth investing in as they are likely to enjoy above-average growth in revenues and profits going forward. Companies in this category include Wisynco, Caribbean Cement, Caribbean Cream, Grace Kennedy, Jamaican Teas, Caribbean Producers, Jetcon, Fontana, Express Catering, Stationery and Office Supplies, Edufocal, Transjamaican Highway, Stanley Motta, and Tropical Battery.

Advancing Junior Market stocks crush losers

Rising stocks outnumbered those declining by a wide margin but that led to the Junior Market Index increasing a mere 5.05 points to lock up trading at 3,832.51, with the index just 0.4 percent lower than the close for 2023, with trading closing on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange Thursday, with a 23 percent decline in the volume of stocks traded, after 29 percent less funds entered the market compared to Wednesday after trading in 42 securities up from 37 on Wednesday and ending with prices of 22 rising, 12 declining and eight closing unchanged.
The market closed on Thursday after 5,836,386 shares were exchanged by investors for $11,800,314 compared to 7,539,058 stock units at $16,711,931 on Wednesday.
Trading averaged 138,962 shares at $280,960, compared with 203,758 units at $451,674 on Wednesday with the month to date, averaging 201,600 units at $501,717 compared to 213,894 units at $545,043 on the previous day and January with an average of 175,081 units at $401,738.
EduFocal led trading with 2.78 million shares for 47.6 percent of total volume followed by MFS Capital Partners with 495,943 units for 8.5 percent of the day’s trade and Stationery and Office Supplies with 442,836 stock units for 7.6 percent market share.
At the close of trading, the Junior Market ended trading with an average PE Ratio of 13.6, based on last traded prices in conjunction with earnings projected by ICInsider.com for the financial years ending around August 2024.
Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator shows five stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and six with lower offers.
At the close, Blue Power increased 8 cents to $3.38 after a transfer of 448 shares, Cargo Handlers popped 10 cents to $14.50, with 500 units crossing the exchange, Caribbean Assurance Brokers shed 35 cents to close at $2.09 with a transfer of 16,869 stock units. Consolidated Bakeries gained 12 cents and ended at $2.21 with investors dealing in 89,685 stock units, Dolla Financial fell 8 cents to close at $2.81 in switching ownership of 287,886 shares, Dolphin Cove rose $1.46 to $18.98 with investors swapping 20,170 stocks. EduFocal rose 8 cents and ended at $1.53 with an exchange of 2,778,915 units, Everything Fresh climbed 20 cents in closing at $1.70 after an exchange of 12,591 stock units, Honey Bun rallied 9 cents to end at $6.49, with 12,615 shares changing hands. Indies Pharma dipped 10 cents to close at $2.70 after 226,366 stock units passed through the market, Jamaican Teas increased 8 cents to $2.59 with investors trading 4,962 units, Lasco Financial climbed 25 cents in closing at $2.05, with 1,200 stock units crossing the market. Limners and Bards sank 42 cents to close at $1.30 as investors exchanged 10,454 shares, Lumber Depot popped 10 cents to end at $2.60 with investors trading 172 stock units, Main Event lost 10 cents and ended at $15 in an exchange of 16,178 stocks. MFS Capital Partners dropped 33 cents to $2.11 after 495,943 units crossed the market, Spur Tree Spices advanced 15 cents and ended at $2.45 after an exchange of 27,148 shares and tTech skidded 49 cents to close at $2 with investors transferring 9,241 stocks.
Prices of securities trading are those for the last transaction of each stock unless otherwise stated.

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