Bluedot latest polls positing a seat count of 33 to 30 is so way off the mark it is not worth paying serious attention, the actual polls numbers would compute to a heavy defeat for the PNP and if margin of error worked in favour of the PNP they would most likely lose the 2025 elections an analysis of the 2020 polls results show.
The latest Nationwide/Bluedot polls found that 31 percent of respondents would vote for the JLP, while 28 percent would cast their ballot for the PNP, within the poll’s margin of error of +/- 3 percent.
The pollsters described the JLP’s lead as “negligible”. “If the poll findings were held on election day, the balance in the parliament would be 33 seats for the JLP and 30 for the PNP.”
While the polls may be scientifically done, the same cannot be said for the seat count which is way off an outcome of the party standings. The above numbers translate to a 53/47 percent split in popular support on a head to head matchup.
Some realities are to be factored in when assessing general elections and determining seat counts. Just extrapolating the percentage of the poll will provide results that are far from accurate. General elections are not fought nationally but by winnable constituencies. As a result, political parties spend energy on seats they consider winnable. The result is that some seats end up not maximising votes as there is no competition to woo those voters. Past studies indicate that the PNP has about a 5 percent advantage in votes based on the constituencies they have commanding majorities. These need to be factored in if the overall poll numbers are used to assess the seat counts. The poll spit may be 53/47 percent, in reality it’s closer to a 55/45 percent split for the rest of the country.
A detailed examination of the 2020 election results show that if the parties were to hold the position as stated in the polls the JLP would end up with a commanding majority similar to their current position. ICInsider.com computed the results based on both parties having a 50 percent split in votes, effectively adjusting for the margin of error. The result is that the PNP would improve their seat count from 14 based on getting 47 percent of the votes to 20, with one so close it would effectively be a tie and overall 3 would be very marginal, and could go either way, five of the JLP wins would be very marginal and could also go either way. Effectively the PNP could end up with 26 seats if all the marginal seats end up in their camp rather than the JLP.
One thing to note, the polls were done at a time the PNP was preparing for their annual conference and the polls may well have picked up some sentiments relating to it.
Assuming the margin of error is biased towards the JLP and also against the PNP, the results would be PNP 31 percent and JLP 28 percent which translates to 52.5 percent for the PNP and 47.5 percent for the JLP. On the surface a clear win for the PNP. The seat by seat data shows a close election based on these percentages. Assuming all projected very close marginal seats are won by the PNP, they would most likely end up with 27 seats, including retaking all seats in Westmoreland and winning all but one in Manchester, still 5 short of a majority. Expect a bitter election campaign when it comes around.