Lasco Financial rose to $5.99 by the end of the week, while IC Insider.com downgraded earnings for Caribbean Flavours to $1.22 for the 2019 fiscal year, with both moving out of the Junior Market TOP 10.
Medical Disposables that suffered a fall in price to $4.50 and Caribbean Producers moved into the TOP stocks listing for the Junior Market. There were no new addition to the TOP 10 main market stocks at the close of the past week. There were some changes in the rankings, most noticeable was Radio Jamaica, with a rise in price to $1.35 from $1.25 at the close of the previous week, as the stock moved closer to exit the top list. Salada Foods rose in sympathy to good half year results, to close at $13.10 from $11.26 at the start of the week, but it pulled back after trading at an all-time high of $15. Caribbean Cement moved down to $37.50 from $40.05 and Barita Investments rose to $12.53 from $11.50 while Berger Paints saw increased selling in light of the company’s posting increased sales but lower profits in the March quarter due to a number of factors, some of which are not likely to be repeated, in the other quarters of the year.
The past week was characterized by some sharp price fluctuations and index movements in both markets, with the ending to the release of most first quarter results. Interest rates fell to their lowest levels on Treasury bills and the central bank cut the overnight rate by 25 basis points during the past week, seem to have little effect on the market so far. That will change as the weeks roll on, it may be that investors are now taking a break for May, this coming week could have the answer.
Former TOP 10 Junior Market stock Stationery and Office Supplies, closed at a new record high of $9 last week after positing good first quarter results with earnings per share up 70 percent to 17 cents and looking as if $1 is possible for the full year, with the commencement of the production of plain paper books.
At the close of Friday, the average PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks ended at 6.2 compared to an average PE for the overall main market of 10, based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE is 7.3 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13.
IC Insider.com’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 38 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 45 percent to the market.
Stocks to Watch this week include, Barita, Grace Kennedy, PanJam Investment, Radio Jamaica, Salada, Jamaica Stock Exchange ordinary share, Stationery and Office Supplies. Although not yet listed, investors should keep an eye open for Sygnus Credit that saw its IPO more than twice oversubscribed.
Stocks mostly rise on TTSE – Friday
The Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange ended trading on Friday with less securities trading than on Thursday but with prices ending mostly higher as 12 securities traded against 15 on Thursday leading to 7 advancing, 1 declining and 4 remaining unchanged.
The stocks that gained were mostly in the Market activity resulted in 220,145 shares at a value of $3,003,375 compared to 1,076,127 shares valued at $20,874,283 changing hands, on Thursday.
At close of the market the, Composite Index the Composite Index rose 2.65 points on Friday to 1,237.64, the All T&T Index gained 3.04 points to 1,725.32, while the Cross Listed Index inched higher by 0.31 points to close at 100.81.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows the market continuing to be weak as it closed with 1 stock ending with a higher bid than the last selling price and 6 with lower offers.
Gains| Guardian Holdings concluded trading by rising 50 cents and settling at $16.50, after exchanging 83,904 shares, NCB Financial Group added 25 cents and concluded trading at $5.50, after exchanging 51,783 shares, Republic Financial Holdings increased 16 cents and ended at $102.66, with 2,500 stock units changing hands, Sagicor Financial rose 4 cents and completed trading at $7.90, with 55,672 units, Scotiabank gained 1 cent and settled at a 52 weeks’ high of $64.01, after exchanging 2,086 shares, Trinidad & Tobago NGL gained 5 cents and completed trading at $29.05, with 601 units and Unilever Caribbean finished trading with a rise of 25 cents to $32.50, after exchanging 75 shares.
Losses| Prestige Holdings concluded trading with a loss of 14 cents and settled at $10.01, after exchanging 1,453 shares.
Firm Traded| Clico Investments completed trading at $20.20, with 18,407 units, First Caribbean International Bank settled at $8.89, after exchanging 499 shares, First Citizens concluded at $35, after exchanging 3,000 shares and National Enterprises completed trading at $9.65, with 165 units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.
Big gains on Thursday push TTSE
Strong gains in Guardian Holdings, Republic Financial Holdings and NCB Financial helped to push the Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange market indices up on Thursday as trading level rose sharply.
The movement in Guardian and NCB shares followed a report that the NCB and disgruntled minority shareholders of Guardian were to meet to have discussions in an attempt to resolve concerns about the pricing of the offer. Republic gains follows strong March quarter results and pent up demand for the stock.
The market ended trading in 15 securities against 16 on Tuesday, with 7 advancing, 3 declining and 6 remaining unchanged. Market activity resulted in 1,076,127 shares valued at $20,874,283 compared to 335,799 shares at a value of $3,449,592 changing hands, on Wednesday.
At close of the market the, Composite Index the Composite Index jumped 8.29 points on Thursday to 1,234.99, the All T&T Index rose 5.67 points to 1,722.28, while the Cross Listed Index gained 1.50 points to close at 100.50.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows the market continuing to be weak as it closed with 2 stocks ending with higher bids than the last selling prices and 5 with lower offers.
Gains| Grace Kennedy closed with a gain of 5 cents and settled at $3.05, with 301,234 units traded, Guardian Holdings gained 70 cents and concluded trading t $16, after exchanging 372,650 shares, Guardian Media finished trading with a gain of 1 cent and ended at $65.06, after exchanging just 6 shares, JMMB Group finished trading after an increase by 1 cent and completed trading at $1.73, with 149,834 stock units changing hands, NCB Financial Group rose 20 cents and ended at $5.25, after exchanging 49,276 shares, Republic Financial Holdings finished 79 cents higher and completed trading at $102.50, with 1,209 stock units changing hands and Trinidad Cement rose 24 cents to $2.99, after exchanging 90 shares.
Losses| Ansa Mcal shed 23 cents and settled at 52 weeks’ low of $59, with 143 units, National Flour lost 5 cents, ending at $1.75, after exchanging 400 shares and Unilever Caribbean dropped $1.75 and ended at $32.25, after trading 1,810 shares.
Firm Traded| Ansa Merchant concluded market activity at $40, after exchanging 500 shares, Clico Investments settled at $20.20, with 3,678 units, First Caribbean International Bank ended trading at $8.89, after exchanging 1,250 shares, Point Lisas settled at $3.81, with 1,283 units, Trinidad & Tobago NGL closed at $29, with 65,343 units and West Indian Tobacco completed trading at $88.50, with 127,421 stock units changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place and are in TTSE dollars.
More ammunition for big JSE surge
The cut in Bank of Jamaica’s overnight policy rate, by 25 basis points to 2.5 percent and further decline in short term Treasury bill rates on Wednesday, are big shot in the arm for Jamaican stocks.
With a 15 percent fall in BOJ’s policy rate in 2018 so far, stocks are lagging behind, with an increase of just 6.6 percent for the Junior Market and 4 percent for the main market. The accompanying chart shows the fall in Treasury bill rates being far greater than the rise of the All Jamaica Composite Index, an indication of a lot more upside for stocks based on the downward movement of interest rates.
Investors seem to be focusing more on profits in valuing stocks than on interest rates so far. That will change. The fall in the overnight rate, translates to a 9 percent rise in stock market prices, but rates seem likely to decline some more before settling off providing more ammunition for more gains in stock prices.
The latest Treasury bill auction also points to falling rates, with the 91 days bill declining to 2.71 percent from 2.818 percent in April, while the 182 days instrument average rate ended at 2.83 percent, from 2.979 percent in April. The 272 days Treasury bill cleared at an average of 3.08 percent with the highest allotted yield being 3.4 percent. In The three offerings of $700 million each, attracted a total of just over $7 billion, an indication of the high liquidity in the market that will have a positive impact on stock prices.
With the fall in interest rates, the PE of money is at the high end 40 times income and using corporate bond 12 times, but the PE ratio should be more tied to Treasury Bill rates and that PE is now in 30 range but stocks are mostly in the low teens and below.
Stocks have not been helped by some of the 2018 first quarter results, coming in a period when the market traditionally goes into a recess until late early summer. While profits for a number of companies may not have been electric for the 2018 first quarter and prices have not moved much except in a few cases, a look behind orders indicates that supply for a number of stocks is very limited. Stationery and Office Supplies have just two offers at the close of Wednesday, with less than 10,500 share on offer. Access Financial, Barita, Berger, PanJam Investment, Salada Foods to name some, have very limited supplies and others could follow suit in a short while, most investors don’t seem to be paying much attention to the tsunami that is on the way that will see prices move sharply higher.