Caribbean Cream trading on Friday

Caribbean Cream will commence trading of Friday under the ticker symbol Kremi. This confirms IC Insider report last week that the listing was set for this week. The company is the latest to be listed on the Jamaica Stock Exchange.

Stock outlook | The company which went to the market in April to raise $75.7 million was just oversubscribed on May 1, well ahead of the closing date of May 10. Not much is expected in terms of price movements when trading starts since there was not the usual demand and heavy subscription for the shares as has been the norm for majority of the junior listing stocks.

JSE: Tuesday, 14th May 2013

Indices rise but decliners outnumber advancers

In Tuesday’s trading on the Jamaica Stock Exchange 3 stocks advanced and 7 declined. It’s been some time since the advance/decline ratio was negative, nevertheless the main market indices actually registered advances. The level of trading was moderate with just over 2 million units trading for a value of $9.3 million.

At the end of trading there were 8 stocks with bids above the last selling price and only two with offers below the last sale price.

JSEINdicesMay14

JSE: Monday, 13th May 2013

Market highest since February 8th

The market is at the highest level based on the All Jamaica Index since February 8th this year, but it has some way to go before it takes out the 2013 high of January 4 when the all Jamaica index was at 91,721. Grace Kennedy put on $2.25 today, to close at $58 based on 6,185 units trading at $58, Desnoes and Geddes put on 33 cents to close at $4.50 after the company reported improved nine months results on Friday but with lower third quarter profits than the year before quarter due to costs relating to staff separation. The company traded 82,500 units, all at $4.50. Scotia Bank put on $1.96 to close at $21.98 while trading a mere 5.965 units.

The sentiments of the market can be gleaned from the advance decline ratio of stock price movements in today’s trade. Advancing stocks continued the trend of last week with advancing stocks outnumbering declining stocks on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. 7 stocks registered price advances and only 3 fell. The movement helped in moving the All Jamaican index up by 828.77 closing at 83,660.42. The main market index closed up 470.76 points to close at 84,479.12 on a day when 21 stocks traded. Stocks with a mere $9,004,591.79 value traded in market.

Stocks to watch this week | Grace Kennedy, Carreras, Jamaica Broilers, National Commercial Bank, Scotia Investments, Blue Power, Honey Bun, Jamaican Teas, General Accident.

JSEINdicesMay13

JSE: Friday, 10th May 2013

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Scotia companies stock skid

In a lackluster day’s trading, 3.08 million stocks at a value of $33,240,248.40 traded as 11 stocks recorded price gains against only 2 that fell in the ordinary share segment.

Both Scotia Group and Scotia Investments were the day’s big losers, the former down $1.98 to $20.02 with 512,354 units trading and the latter losing $3.08 to close at $23.03 with 324,350 shares trading. NCB gained 30 cents to close at $18.30 with 524,095 shares trading. JP traded 13,001 units and put on 32 cents to close at $15.50, Jamaica Broilers traded 309,318 units up to $4.60, 6 cents more than on Thursday. Kingston Wharves gained 30 cents in trading 12,781 units to close at $6.40 and the highest price for more than a year, Lasco Financial Services traded at an all-time high of $8.10 while Blue Power gained 17 cents to $5.85 on just 4,389 units. Grace continues to pick gains, closing at $55.75, 16 cents more than yesterday, on small volume.

JSEINdicesMay10All the indices of the market fell except the junior market the US dollar market that had no trades and the cross listed index, whereas there were no trades for overseas based companies.

Who is running the stock exchange?

The last posting on the stock exchange website for D&G is the release of the December quarter’s results posted on February 8, 2013. The exchange’s web site, on which information should be posted, did not have the release that the company would consider the payment of a dividend at a meeting to be held on May 16. How come a brokerage house had the said information posted on their website on Thursday but the exchange did not until after 9 am on Friday? What is really going on at the JSE? And where is the Financial Service Commission (FSC) in seeing to the orderly running of the capital market?

More questions | Why does the JSE put information about the trading of Proven ordinary shares in the combined trading report but at the same time, leave out the value of trade and the quantity? It makes absolutely no sense. Why should investors have to add the trading data to determine the full extent of a day’s trade? Importantly, why is the combined trading sheet that has the US$ listing as well as the US dollar index, carry the total trade but when checked, the value of trading is not included and nowhere on the report is there a notation that it is not included?

The reality is the stock exchange needs all the positive publicity it can get to interest more persons in the market. But do they see the value in fully informing the public about the total level of trading on the market? Is anyone then surprised that many persons think our market is a joke and prefer to try their luck in shark infested waters?

For example, the trade sheet section with market indices carries a column that is headed “value” and next to it “volume”. One would naturally think the value relates to the dollar value of trades, but not so. It is in fact the the closing indices for the day. The Trinidad Stock Exchange shows the section as closing indices and that seems far more logical.

The problem with our exchange | The executives think they know it best and constantly refer to international best practice for some of what they do. That however, is selective as there are other occasions that they do things when it suits them that are not done elsewhere. What about the users of the information? Should they not get trading reports that meet international best practices?

It’s time they wake up to reality. The question is who will do it.

JSE: Thursday, 9th May 2013

Scotia Investments jumps $2.60

Scotia Investments jumped $2.80 to close at $26.15 and was the biggest mover on the day trading 8,805 units, all at $26 or above. Grace Kennedy had a bid of $56 closed which was higher than the last sale price and ended up with a gain of $0.55 to close at $55.55 having traded at a high of $56. Scotia Group closed at $22 up 79 cents on the day, Sagicor Life made amends for the fall yesterday by putting on 40 cents to close at $8. Lasco Financial Services gained 19 cents to close at $7.99, the stock traded at an all-time high today of $8. Carreras gained 50 cents to close at $57.

Advancing stocks continue to out-pace declining ones by more than 2 to 1 with 9 ordinary shares advancing to 4 falling.

JSEINdicesMay9J$34.1 million invested in 4,282,236 units of stocks traded on the Jamaican dollar segment of the market. US$947,000 was expended in the US dollar market in trading on Thursday.

Proven Investments accounted for 8,578,641 shares valued at US$947,939.83 in the US market. Just one trade took place in the stock, with Pan Caribbean Financial Services handling both sides of the trade. Data indicates that they did it on behalf of clients. The main market index and the All Jamaica Composite index recovered all the points lost yesterday, and more, in today’s trading.

Grace Kennedy traded 205,745 shares valued at $11.44 million between $55.55 and $56. Access Financial Services lost 10 cents in trading 1,363,200 shares valued at $9.54 million. Mayberry Investments crossed 1.316 million units which they bought for in-house purposes. Gleaner Company traded 2,073,109 units with a value of $2.49 million. The entire Gleaner trade was handled by NCB Capital markets on behalf of clients. NCB closed down 20 cents to $17.80 on 139,292 units valued $2.5 million. Sagicor Investment saw 104,521 units changing hands for $1.62 million, Proven’s 8% preference shares traded 470,377 worth $2.39 million, all traded at $5.09 up 6 cents on the day.

Bullish signs persists | There are still bullish signs being reflected in prices on the market with quite a few stocks still having bids that are higher than the last selling price.

JSE: Wednesday, 8th May 2013

Low levels of trade

The total volume of shares trading today amounted to 1,445,101 units valued at over $9,519,690. Cable & Wireless was the volume leader with 711,901 units (53.12%) followed by Mayberry Investments with 119,220 units (8.90%) closing at a price of $2.05 and Barita Investments with 100,000 units (7.46%) as the stock closed at $3 having fallen 20 cents.

There were 12 advancing stocks compared to 7 which declined but the market indices shows otherwise as all indices that were affected by trading declined except for the junior market index which rose marginally. Unlike yesterday when no stocks in the junior market traded, the 5 that traded included General Accident with 91,580 units being the highest volume and Lasco Financial traded a higher amount in dollars that General Accident with the former trading $187,583 versus $153,791 for the latter.

The JSE Market Index declined by 440.13 points (0.52%) to close at 83,824.52. The JSE Select Index declined by 28.23 points (1.23%) to close at 2,263.66.  The JSE All Jamaican Composite declined by 774.85 points (0.93%) to close at 82,508.01. The JSE Junior Market Index advanced by 2.01 points (0.32%) to close at 622.76. The JSE Combined Index declined by 418.47 points (0.49%) to close at 85,288.11.

JSEINdicesMay8Grace lost 50 cents to close at $55 although the bid was at $56 at the close, having traded 24,645 shares. Pan Jam with 300 shares trading gained $2.70 to close at $53. Scotia group shed 77 cents to close at $21.21 with 21,564 units having traded. NCB lost 80 cents to close at $18 in trading 94,952 shares

5 stocks in the junior market and 5 in the main market closed with bids above the last sale price, which means higher prices ahead. In the junior market. Caribbean Producers bid is 2 cent higher than the last selling price of $2, Access is 15 Cents higher than the last price of $7, Honey bun is just a cent over the $4 the stock last traded at and Lasco Distributors is 5 cents more than the last sale price of $9.60.

In the main market, Ciboney, D&G, Grace and Jamaica Producers and Kingston Properties are all higher than the last sale price of their stocks.

Other Stocks to Watch |  Lasco manufacturing, General Accident, Carreras, Scotia Investments, Sagicor Life, Scotia Group, and Seprod.

Daily Trading 7th May 2013

JSE | Junior market sets a record with no trades

The junior market achieved a record today when no shares traded. This has never happened, except in the early days when Access Financial Services was the only listed stock on the junior market. Many investors and brokerage house personnel told ICInsider.com that investors were wondering what had happened, some thinking a computer glitch had occurred. In the end, we were told that brokers did not effect any trades since the bids and offers were quite far apart for some stocks and in some cases the volumes on either side, offer or buy, were small.

Five stocks in the junior market and 5 in the main market closed with bids above the last sale price, which means higher prices ahead.

JSEINdicesMay7Bullish days ahead? | The junior market is not the only place that is showing signs of improved investor’s sentiment. In the main market, Scotia Group has rebounded from the post NDX effect by trading in good volumes, NCB is well off the low it reach after the NDX announcement, Grace Kennedy and Carreras have been moving higher.  A number of stocks seem to have found a floor, with strong bids at their last selling price. At the same time, supply is drying up for some stocks. That may well be so, but the all signals are not yet in place for a grand rally.

Interestingly, the market is not reacting negatively to the write-off of unrealized investment gains that have knocked off huge profits for the March Quarter among the financial institutions. Investors seem to be looking beyond that, to recognize that even with those one-off charges, stock prices are still undervalued on the whole. Also, interest rates are likely to fall some more and with very low yields on money market instruments, stocks may be the main thing in town for a long time to come.

Scotia Bank with 1.8 million shares changing hands today valued at $39.1 million commanded the bulk of trading and the stock price moved up 31 cents. Interestingly, the bid to offer ratio on this stock is pitched in favour of buyers as they outnumber sellers. Volumes have generally been low for the sell side while demand is much higher. NCB  rose 19 cents and does not have much volume below $20 per share on the sell side, a sign that the price could rise some more.

Jamaica Broilers has strong buying interest and so does the Gleaner with more than 3 million on the bid at $1.20.

Market signs | The market is displaying signs of upward movements to come but it will have to close well over 87,000 points on the All Jamaica Index before we see signs of a sustainable rally. With the market closing today at 83,282, there are still some movements to go before realizing what could be a bull run.

The market traded $50,469,026.73 in local currency as well as US$9,577.70 in the US dollar market.

TTSE | WITCO jumps $7, market heading higher

West Indian Tobacco Company (WITCO) stock jumped $7.07 to end the day at a all time record of $107.07.

A volume of 1,314,293 shares traded on the main market valued at $5,530,257.06. Trinidad Cement accounted for 637,564 shares valued at $605,685.80, followed by Jamaica Money Market Brokers with a volume of 430,000 shares being traded for $215,000.  Angostura Holdings contributed 125,055 shares with a value of $1,125,495 and Neal & Massy Holdings added 40,177 shares valued at $2,370,443.

TTSEMay7Point Lisas Industrial Port Development Corporation suffered the day’s sole decline, falling $0.01 to end the day at $3.64 on a day when trading took place in 14 securities of which 6 advanced, 1 declined and 7 traded firm.

Clico Investment Fund was the only active security on the Mutual Fund Market, posting a volume of 230,253 shares valued at $4,854,228.71 while advancing 0.07 to end at $21.08.

Closing prices point to a higher market ahead | Clear signs of this can be seen from the number of stocks that have bids at the same level as the last traded price but more importantly there are 7 stocks where the bids are above the last traded price. The companies are Ansa Merchant Bank bid $38.51 last sale $38.50, Berger last sale $3.55 closing bid $3.58, Grace Kennedy, bid $3.31 last price $3.23, One Caribbean Media, $16.75 is the bid versus last price of $16.60, Scotia Investments last sale price $1.55 with the closing bid of $1.57, Scotia Bank which last sold at $69.27 now has a bid of $69.30  and West Indian tobacco which traded today at $107.07 with a closing bid of $110.

ForEx | J$ appreciation continues

In Tuesday’s foreign exchange trading, the value of the Jamaican dollar continued its appreciation as it took J$99.0056 to purchase a US dollar. At the end of Monday’s trade it took J$99.0276 to purchase one US dollar.

ForExSummaryMay7Sellers of the US dollar were better off on average than on Monday as they got J$98.53 for each US dollar they sold compared to $98.4189 on Monday. Sellers of Canadian dollars and Pound sterling were not as fortunate as they got 24 cents less for selling on Monday compared to Tuesday for the Canadian dollar and 15 cents less for selling the pound. It took just 4 cents less to purchase the Canadian dollars and 18 cents less for the Pound.

The equivalent of US$39.2 million, were purchased and US$39.97 million were sold, as increased liquidity continues to enter the market.

Market signals | Highest selling rate for the US was J$104 and the lowest J$83.26 while the highest buying rate for the US was J$99.2 and the lowest J$81.16. The selloff of foreign currency and appreciation of the local currency seems set to continue.

ForExDEtailsMay7

KREMI oversubscribed

When the public offer of Caribbean Cream Ltd (CCL) KREMI closed on Wednesday, it brought the total number of companies to raise funds using the Jamaica Stock Exchange’s junior market to seventeen (17).

Caribbean Cream Ltd (CCL) KREMI, seeking to list on the JSE Junior Market, closed on Wednesday morning, May 1, 2013 with applications amounting to more than 375. Word reaching ICInsider.com was that the level of oversubscription was not high. This means that the stock will struggle in early trading to hold the $1 price but ICInsider.com data suggest that earnings to be reported will beat a number of investors’ expectations when the annual results to February are released in a few weeks.

The Invitation for Subscription for 75,713,623 Ordinary Shares at J$1.00 opened on Thursday April 25, 2013 and was originally scheduled to close on closed May 10, 2013.

Stocks & Securities, the brokers to the deal, indicated that applicants (inclusive of Applicants for Reserved Shares) will be advised of the basis of allotment within three (3) business days in accordance with the Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market Rules.

The brokers also stated that the closing of the Invitation represents a landmark event for the company’s expansion as CCL recently signed a $13 million deal with Sandals Resorts International as the sole supplier of bulk ice cream to its Jamaican properties. CCL has also brokered a successful transaction with getting its products into Jewel Resorts.

CCL when it lists on the stock exchange later this month will bring the total listing on the junior market to 17 and will be the second since the start of 2013.

Talk Back | What were your reason for buying or not buying this IPO?

Kremi IPO to close today

ICInsider.com has been reliably advised that the initial public offer (IPO) of shares of Caribbean Cream which opened to the public for subscription on, 25th April 2013 will close today, Tuesday April 30, most likely on the morning, well ahead of the original propose close of 4:30 pm on the 10th May 2013. The early close was subject to the right of the Company to close the subscription list at any time after it opens on 9:00 a.m. on the Opening Date, once the issue is fully subscribed.  The shares which were priced at $1 each and meant to raise $75 million did not get the blessing of some brokerage houses as they saw the price as being too high, and in one case, they saw it as too risky based on inconsistent earnings amongst other issues.

JMMB‘s Forecast and Valuation | The company is expected to remain profitable despite the uncertainties in the local economy. The macro-economic instability may subside following an International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement with Jamaica against the background of foreign exchange inflows and a slight improvement in the net international reserves. Further, listing on the Junior Stock Exchange will give the company a tax break for the next ten years, which should boost earnings attributable to shareholders. Revenues will continue to improve over the short term, while the enhancements and expansion in productive capacity of the company’s facility will likely improve its operational efficiency.

Within this context, the net earnings for the 2013 financial year end are expected to reach $29.81M (or EPS of $0.08). Meanwhile, net profits for the 2014 financial year end are projected to reach $40.99M (or EPS of $0.12). At the initial public offering price, the price-to-earnings ratio will be 12.70 times. The average trailing price-to-earnings ratio for the Junior market is approximately 6.41 times (Main market has a P/E of 6.58 times). Further, the average trailing price-to-earnings ratio for manufacturers and retailers listed on the Junior market is roughly 6.75 times (Manufacturing sector on the main market has a P/E of 6.06 times). Therefore, assuming a forward P/E ratio of 8.0 times for the 2014 financial year against the background of improved investor sentiments and stability in the local economy; the intrinsic value for Caribbean Cream Limited’s share based on estimated earnings is approximately $0.94.

The capital base of the company is expected to improve to $195.16M or a book value per share of $0.52 by 2014 financial year end. Assuming a forward P/BV of 1.8 times, the intrinsic value of stock is $0.93.

NCB Capital Markets‘ assessment of the prospectus | “For the nine months to November, the company increased net profit by 103% and boosted its equity base by increasing its share capital. Caribbean Cream Ltd ended the March 2012FY with earnings of $31.36Mn, the highest profit the company has recorded over the past five years and a sizable improvement to the $5Mn loss experienced in the previous year.

Risks:

  • Earnings have been extremely volatile over the last 5 years
  • Earnings for the nine months period of $23.67 was driven almost entirely by a $21.0Mn revaluation gain following an $11.62Mn profit in the prior year period. This further confirms the earnings volatility
  • Company is highly leveraged which could impede its growth prospects
  • Current ratio of 0.79X raises liquidity concerns
  • Free cash flow is negative which could restrict the company’s ability to follow through on its dividend policy which is to pay out at least 20% of earnings.

There is no clear growth strategy even amidst the company’s rapid expansion As a result of the aforementioned, we are not recommending this investment at this time”.

KremiBanner600X250IC Insider considers that both assessments are way off the mark. Assessment of the company’s performance must be based on pretax profit, not after tax which has varying taxation elements that has nothing to do with operating activities. Profit before tax has been very consistent since the commencement of the company, Earnings for 2013 is more likely to hit 17 per share if the trend in revenues continues after November last year. If the company makes $29.8 million as indicated above in profit for 2013, earnings per share would be 9.8 cents not 8 cents before tax based on the 302.85 million shares issued for the year to February this year.

The company’s rapid growth has helped to put pressure on working capital. New cash to come from the IPO, will help address some of the issue rightly pointed out above.

Talk Back | What do you think? Was the IPO overvalued?