Rising stock prices dragging PEs higher

The bulls have taken control of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, driving the main market to several new record highs during the past week with All Jamaica Index hitting more than 352,000 points last week Friday and jumping more than 6,000 points on Tuesday morning this week to more than 356,400 points and hitting a high of 363,496.
At the same time, the Junior Market now trades at a 15 months’ high. The bullishness has also raised the PE ratio of the market higher since the start of July. The average PE for the overall Junior Market is now 13, based on 2018 estimated earnings. The main market PE, is now an average of 13.7. At the start of July, the PE ratios, were at 11 for the Junior Market and 13 for the main market. At the end of 2017, the average PEs were at 13.5 and 15 respectively, based on 2017 earnings.
The PE is the most used tool in valuing stocks. in order to compare the value of one stock versus another, as such paying attention to this most important measure is critical to success in the stock market. PE ratios are not static and will change as profit and interest rates change. Profit will drive a stock to an expected or accepted PE but interest rates will change PE depending on whether rates and rising or falling. For several years Jamaican became used to a PE of 10 being the norm. That was when interest rates were in the teens now that rates are down sharply from that level PE will rise but its taken quite some time for that to happen. Investors are slowly recognizing that to participate in a growing economy and rising profits that they have to pay more to buy the shares of the listed companies.
The attached chart suggests that the average PE ratio is likely to end 2018 around 16 TO 17 times earnings, as investors continue to gradually upgrade the multiple they are prepared to pay for stocks, which would lift prices sharply over the coming months, from current levels.
Treasury bill rates now under 2 percent and government 4 years bods clearing at 3.95 percent and with a chronic shortage of many of the stocks, continuing to put upward pressure on prices, the PE ratios will move higher, investors should be taking their cue from this development.
The movement of the markets PE to the range mentioned above would translate to and increase around 25 percent rise in the market for the rest of the year and would result in full year gains of 40 to 50 percent in main and Junior markets for the year.

All Jamaica jumps 6,070 points to record 356,437

The Jamaica Stock Exchange surged sharply in early trading on Tuesday, with the All Jamaican Composite Index jumping 6,070.62 to an intraday high 356,437.50, after just 17 minutes of trading.
At the same time, the JSE Index jumped 5,531.02 points to a record 324,754.83. Strong gains by Kingston Wharves that traded at $61 up from $53 when it traded previously, NCB Financial that rose by $1 and and Seprod that jumped from $45 to $50 were the main contributors to the gain.
The Junior Market index is showing a huge increase of 557.73 points to 3,797.07 is caused by Blue Power having split into 10 units with the adjusted price being $4.70 but trades were attempted at $47 thus distorting the index. Those trades will be cancelled at the close of the day.

All Jamaica index jumps to record 352,258 points

The All Jamaican Composite Index of the Jamaica Stock Exchange having cleared the 351,000 points mark after just 5 minutes of opening, with NCB Financial trading at $110 has now broken the 352,000 after 42 minutes of trading.
The All Jamaican Composite Index jumped 3,325.45 to a record 352,257.65 and the JSE Index climbed 3,029.87 points to 320,946.53 points while the Junior Market rose 50.08 to cut sharp fall on Thursday of more than 57 points and now sits at 3,227.22 points.
Apart from a sharp rise in the price of NCB shares, Grace Kennedy rose to $60, and JMMB Group climbed to $29. Kingston Wharves has a bid of $60 compared to a last price of $53 and could add quite a bit to the indices when it trades.

All Jamaica index at record 351,774 points

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The All Jamaican Composite Index of the Jamaica Stock Exchange, having cleared the 350,000 points mark on Thursday, broke the 351,000 level after just 5 minutes of the market’s opening, with NCB Financial trading at $110.
The All Jamaican Composite Index jumped 2,853.46 to a record 351,774,75 and the JSE Index rose 2,589.88 points to 320,506.54 points while the Junior Market rose 39.61 to cut sharp fall on Thursday of more than 57 points and now sits at 3,216.75 points.
The movement in NCB price brings narrows gap in the price the stock trades at in Trinidad at J$129 and Jamaica to from around $24 to $19 currently.

All Jamaica just below 350,000 points

The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange hit new record high with the all Jamaica composite Index sitting just below the 350,000 points level with 3 hours of trading elapsing.
The All Jamaican Composite Index jumped sharply by 5,035.03 points to 349,774.63 and the JSE Index surged 4,5687.48 points to end at a record 318,684.18 while the Junior Market index jumped 32.26 points to 3,194.15.
Indies Pharma traded 3,185,194 shares up to $2.25 up 75 cents from the IPO price of $1.50 while Everything Fresh climbed to $2.20 following six months results. Subsequently, Indies traded 21.19 million units with the last traded price being $2.24.

JSE PE ratios heading higher

The stock market combined index climbed from 82,934.95 points at the end of 2013 to 324,801.52 on Friday, for increase of 292 percent but the average PE ratio has moved from 7.3 by just under 100 percent to peak at an average of 14.5 times last year December.
During the same period, Treasury bill rates tumbled 75 percent from just over 8 percent to 2 percent or were 300 percent more than they are now. While the fall in interest rate would appear to be close to the rise in the market index, the much slower increase in the PE ratio indicates that the major part of the rise is due to increased profits.
Based on the trends in interest rates and PE ratios, coupled with the serious shortage of supply of several stocks, currently, the PE ratio of the market will rise from the current level of 12.5, first to the high of 14.5 reached at the end of December last year and should move on to around 17 to 18 by the end of the year or early 2019.
A look at the chart, indicates that investors are more cautious in moving stock valuation higher. The PE ratio seems to be moving higher each year since the sharp jump in 2015, suggesting that the increase in PE is not yet over. The other factor is that interest rates have fallen faster in 2018 than for some time, investors seem to need more time to digest the rapid change in rates and determine how long it likely to remain at very low levels.
The big question to come will be, when will interest rates start to reverse? If the PE hits 17 by year end, it would represent an approximate 35 percent increase from current levels. Quite a number of stocks are selling above the average of 12.5 presently. A total of 24 stocks in both markets trade above 12.5 and 7 each in the main market and Junior Market selling above 16 times current year’s earnings.

JSE markets fall in morning session

All Jamaica Stock exchange indices are down in then morning session on Wednesday except the US market that is flat.
At midday, the All Jamaican Composite Index dropped 1,540.15 points to at 343,864.88, the JSE Index fell 1,403.25 points to close at 313,299.72 and the Junior market dived 62.25 points to 3,088.65.
NCB Financial pulled back to $100.05 from Tuesday‘s closing price of $104, trading 29,803 shares, Caribbean Cement traded 7,300 shares up to $43.50 but pulled back to $41. Grace Kennedy traded 9,374 units up to a new high of $58 but pulled back to $57.
In the junior market Access Financial dropped from $46.50 to $36 trading 1,000 shares, Caribbean Producers jumped to a new high of $6.77 with 5.28 million units changing hands and General Accident traded 6,949 shares at a new 52 weeks’ high of $3.86 and now has no stock being offered for sale.

More record for JSE majors

The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange cleared another mile stone after 15 minutes off the market opening on Tuesday with the All Jamaican Composite Index breaking through the 347,000 points mark.
The All Jamaican Composite Index jumped 2,501.62 points to at 347,551.83 and the JSE Index gained 2,279.26 points to close at 316,658.95. The Junior market was flat at 3,130.20 points but Medical Disposables traded at a new record high and headed to $6.68 having posted strong gains in its first quarter profit.
Helping in the record move on the day after the in the main market was closed for the Independence Holiday, is NCB Financial rising to $104 and Grace Kennedy at $57.

Investors shun Junior stocks for the oldsters

Black Panther mash up Palace bottom-line with a huge increase in profit that pushed to stock to no 1 for 2018 in the main market.

Investors shunned Junior Market stocks in 2018 for the older more established Main market stocks. At least that is what the data from the exchange is showing.
According to the Jamaica Stock Exchange report of trading to the end of July, volume and value on the main market is up while that on the junior market is well down on 2017 figures, even as the gains in the overall market shows juniors up 14 percent for the year to the end of July and 9 percent for the main market.
Junior Market volume is down year to July by a stunning 69 percent to 571 million units while the value fell 64 percent to $2.69 billion, less than half of the $6.6 billion traded for all of 2017. In contrast main market stocks traded 1.57 billion units, up 28.5 percent over 2017, for a total value of $32 billion, a strong 79.4 percent increase over 2017 and just shy of the $35.7 million traded for all of 2017.
The big winners for the year to July are, Palace with an increase of 154 percent, that was helped by the huge success of the Black Panther film that ran for several months, Pulse Investments up 67 percent, Kingston Wharves 60 percent, Jamaica Broilers 45 percent and Salada Foods 41 percent, as investors responded to improved profit. In the Junior Market, C2W Music and Derrimon Trading beat all others by huge margins, rising 233 percent after it announced a 10 to 1 stock split and 197 percent respectively. Express Catering climbed 86 percent, Stationery and Office Supplies up 65 percent and CAC 2000 up 51 percent.
The big losers in the main market are, Ciboney, having sold off the property it owned and paid out most of the proceeds as a dividend is down 68 percent, 138 Student Living fell 35 percent, Kingston Properties 31 percent, Wisynco Group 24 percent, Portland JSX 20 percent and in the Junior Market, GWEST Corporation down 36 percent, AMG Packaging 33 percent, tTech 23 percent, Knutsford Express 23 percent and Eppley 17 percent.

JSE trades at record high

The Jamaica Stock Exchange main market, trades at a new intraday high in the morning session on Monday and could be heading for another record close, if prices hold up substantially at the the end of trading.
Just before Mid-day the All Jamaican Composite Index climbed 1,552.05 points to 341,987.04 and the ;JSE Index rose 1,414.10 points to 311,588.81. the new record follows the record reached on last Friday. When the All Jamaican Composite Index climbed a strong 2,697.06 points to 341,378.20 and the JSE Index surged 2,457.33 points to 311,034.08 as NCB Financial jumped over $3 and ended the day at $100.01 following release of the group’s nine months results.
Currently, the Junior Market trades down, 15.08 points to 3,078.02.