The Junior Market index is up an incredible 16.3 percent for the year to date, with the average rise in prices at 19 percent. That sharp upward movement which is more than half of the gains for the entire 2021 is equivalent to an annualized gain of 194 percent, but that is unlikely to happen.
As of Friday, the Junior Market is trading smack at a long term resistance level (see orange line)that could result in sideward movement or even a decline, but a number of company results are due over the next two weeks and will influence the market’s direction in the short term, in which case it could break well over the 4,000 mark that it did on Thursday and Friday but failed to hold above it on both occasions after hitting a high of 4,041.54 on Thursday and 4,050.04 on Friday before closing below the 4,000 points mark. The rally seems poised to break through this resistance shortly and move higher, with results for the December quarter supporting it.
The market was in a consolidation mode from early May last year and technical reading suggests that this rally will take it into the 5,000 region.
Will Junior Market succumb to resistance?
Profit melts in the third quarter at Kremi
The 2022 fiscal year started with a blast for the first quarter to May with profit at $54 million after tax, doubling the $27 million in 2020, but a lot of that melted away in the third quarter to November at Caribbean Cream, which trades as Kremi, with the company reporting a loss in that quarter of $25 million down from a profit of $11 million in 2020. The loss brought profit for the nine months to $36 million compared to $85 million in the similar 2020 period.

Caribbean Cream closed at 52 weeks’ low of $3.80
Caribbean Cream did not have a good second quarter with sales rising 5.4 percent and profit falling 85 percent from $47 million to just $7 million due to what the company stated was the introduction of no movement days during the quarter that curtailed sales.
Sales revenues rose 14 percent for the third quarter to $500 million from $441 million but climbed 15 percent for the year to date, to $1.54 billion from $1.33 billion in 2020. The poor performance in the third quarter management attributes to “equipment and infrastructure challenges which we have addressed as we begin the final quarter.” In spelling out the issues Management, stated “at the beginning of the quarter the company faced unforeseen challenges in production resulting in the plant’s efficiency and capacity being impacted negatively. Since then, changes have been made in procedures, equipment and personnel to rectify the problem.”
While the company has been making headways with increased revenues, profit performance has not been consistent for some time, with the exception of the years 2014 to 2017 that enjoyed an annual increase in profits. The turbulence in profits since 2017 and the major problems in the 2021 third quarter reveal a major weakness in management that needs addressing. Such inconsistencies destroy investors’ interest in the company as well as the stock price.
Gross profit fell 13 percent in the quarter to $125 million from $143 million but rose 7 percent for the year to date, to $486 million from $453 billion in 2020.
Gross profit margin in the first nine months of the year, declined in the November quarter to 32 percent from 34 percent in the 2020 and for the quarter it dropped sharply to just 24 percent compared to 32 percent for the 2020 and that was a major contributor to the loss in the period.
Administrative expenses rose 15.5 percent to $129 million in the quarter and increased 26 percent in the nine months period to $378 million. Sales and distribution expenses increased by 8 percent in the quarter and the nine months to $16 million from $15 million in 2020 and from $43 million to $47 million, respectively. Depreciation rose from $88 million in 2020 to $95 million and is likely to rise further with the completion of the power generating plant being installed and is expected to make a major impact on the cost of utilities in the new fiscal year. Finance cost more than doubled in the quarter to $8 million from $4 million in 2020 and jumped 52 percent from $13 million to $20 million for the nine months.
Gross cash flow brought in $130 million down from $185 million in 2020. There was a release of $30 million from working capital but additions to fixed assets consumed $263 million funded by net loan inflows of $328 million. Payment of dividends consumed $26 million, more than twice the $11 million in 2020.
At the end of the period, shareholders’ equity stood at $844 million. Long term loans amounted to $654 million and short term at $11 million. Current assets ended the period at $553 million, including trade and other receivables of $82 million, inventories of $244 million and cash and bank balances of $227 million. Current liabilities ended at $140 million and net current assets at $413 million.
Earnings per share for the quarter was negative 7 cents and a profit of 10 cents for the year to date. IC Insider.com forecasts 27 cents per share for the fiscal year and $1 for 2023.
The stock traded at $5.40 on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange with a PE ratio of 20 times 2022 earnings and a PE of 5.4 times fiscal 2023 earnings. Net asset value is $2.33 with the stock selling at 2.4 times book value.
Profit surges 146% at AMG Packaging
ICInsider.com TOP15 2022 selection, AMG Packaging released first quarter results to November, with revenues climbing 55 percent to $270 million from $174 million in 2020 and delivered profit before tax of $45.5 million, 187 percent above just $16.4 million in 2020 and profit after tax rose 146 percent to $35 million from $14.3 million in 2020. The company reported profit after tax of $60.6 million or 12 cents per share for the fiscal year to August 2021.
The latest results were helped by a foreign exchange gain of $4.7 million in the quarter from a loss of $6 million in 2020.
Gross profit rose 40 percent from $53 million to $74 million as input cost rose a bit faster than revenues at 61 percent to $196 million from $121 million in 2020.
Administrative and other costs rose modestly from $32.2 million to $33.3 million.
Cash inflows amounted to $52 million up from$23 million in 2020. Working capital needs and acquisition of fixed assets amounting to $18 million resulted in an increase in cash funds of $5 million and ended in cash on hand at $135 million.

AMG new factory space that will house the new machine.
Investment in Fixed assets stood at $468 million up from $362 million in 2020, with current assets at $503 million which includes Inventory of $207 million up from $129 million at the end of November 2020. Current liabilities stood at $197 million while long term liabilities were $102 million and shareholders equity at $643 million.
ICInsider.com projects full year earnings at 35 cents as the results for the full year will benefit from increased efficiencies to flow from the new box making machine that is now on site, with installation expected to be completed in February. the new machine will print in multi colours and open up new business opportunities for the company.
The stock closed on the Junior Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange today at a new closing high of $3.40 and a PE of 9.7.
The stock traded at the beginning of October last year at $1.70 and is up 100 percent since then.
Profit drop at Elite but watch this stock
Revenue of $118 million for the first quarter in 2020 fell 7 percent to $110 million in the first quarter to September 2021, resulting in a loss of $10.3 million compared to a profit of $16.7 million the previous year for Elite Diagnostic.
Reduced revenues impacted profit margin with a decline to 61.4 percent from 66.25 percent in 2020 and from 63.3 percent for the fiscal year to June. Input cost climbed 6 percent to $42 million from $40 million and gross profit fell 14 percent to $67 million from $78 million.
On the surface, the last reported results for the company may drive fear into the minds of investors but that would lead to a miss of potentially profitable investment for the future. “Net profit was impacted by increased administrative expenses, depreciation and foreign exchange losses”, management advised shareholders in their commentary on the results.

Elite Diagnostics
The report to shareholders continued, “revenue was affected by Covid-19 with reduction of operating hours and reduced procedures. Currently, the company’s operational hours are back to normal. An unusually lengthy breakdown of the CT also impacted our revenues during the quarter. Along with our regular preventative maintenance of the machines, the company has invested in equipment and parts to reduce some of the downtimes of the machine breakdowns”.
“The St Ann location revenue is increasing month over month since all modalities became operational in the first quarter of 2020. The company is cautiously optimistic as the effects of Covid-19 more negatively impact the rural areas of the country. The company continues to see steady demand for imaging services at all locations.”
Administrative expenses rose 13.5 percent to $46 million in the quarter from $40 million and depreciation jumped 44 percent to $25 million from $17.4 million in 2020. Finance cost was steady at $10 million, while foreign exchange movement resulted in a $3 million swing from a surplus of $1 million in 2020 to a loss of $2 million in 2021.
In spite of the loss incurred in the quarter, gross cash flow was positive with inflows of $15 million, down from $28 million in 2020. Additions to fixed assets offset by loan inflows utilized just over $15 million as net cash outflow for the period ended at $503,581. At the end of September, shareholders’ equity stood at $449 million, long term loans at $209 million and short term loans at $10 million. Current assets ended at $679 million, including trade and other receivables of $44 million, cash and bank balances of $39 million. Current liabilities ended the period at just $20 million, with net current assets ending at $659 million.
The results ended with earnings per share being a loss of 3 cents for the quarter, down from 4 cents for the quarter in the prior year. Based on the latest results, most investors would be looking elsewhere for investment opportunities. In doing so, they could miss one of the biggest winners in 2022. IC Insider.com forecasts 30 cents per share for the fiscal year ending June 2022, with a PE of 10 times the current year’s earnings based on the price of $3.05 the stock traded at the Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market. The company has more room for revenue growth from the addition of new equipment, continued growth in the relatively new St Ann location and additional branches in the future.

Drax Hall branch of Elite.
The company paid a dividend of 9 cents in October this year 2021. Net asset value is $1.29, with the stock selling at just over 2.4 times book value.
Reporting to shareholders in the annual report for the year to June, the chairman, Steven Gooden, stated, “we have been fortunate to see an increased demand for imaging services and were prudent to have sought to capitalize on this demand – through the acquisition of new equipment. We will continue to pursue this growth strategy by installing a new MRI system at the Liguanea branch, which we anticipate will be operational beginning early 2022. This new machine, we expect, will serve to reduce the company’s operating hours and thereby its related expenses. Additionally, with the St Ann branch issues finally resolved, the location is now operating at the desired capacity. Looking ahead, the near to medium term holds the classic combination of challenge and opportunity.On the one hand, we see continued challenges in terms of rising prices, compounded by the depreciation of the local currency; the company pays all its rent and purchases equipment and supplies from overseas in US dollar, so any depreciation in the dollar will affect the bottom line. On the other hand, we also see our cash flows remaining stable, if not strong, amid the continued high demand for our services. The demand is so strong that, were it not for dealing with the issues associated with the Drax Hall branch, the company might well have advanced plans for another branch. We intend to approach growing the company’s footprint with alacrity and all seriousness in the coming year”.
Caribbean Cream stock for the main course in 2022
Sale revenues rose 16 percent for the half year, to August 2021 $1.03 billion from $891 million but rose a mere 5.4 percent for the August quarter, to $486 million from $461 million in 2020 at ice cream maker Caribbean Cream. Management attributed the poorer second quarter performance to the several no movement days imposed by the government during the quarter.
Profit melted in the quarter by 85 percent to just $7 million from $47 million in 2020 and fell 17 percent for the six months to August, to $61 million from $74 million in 2020.
The company has not had a consistent and predictable profit outcome for some years, still, the trajectory has generally been up. In 2019 the company posted $89 million after tax that fell to $55 million in 2020 and $101 in 2021. The 2022 fiscal year profit is poised to beat that of 2021, notwithstanding the setback in the second quarter.

Caribbean Cream posted significant gains in profit in Q1.
Improvement in profit margin in the first half of the year was consistent at 41 percent, with the prior year’s six months but has increased over the 37 percent achieved for the fiscal year to February 2021. But it fell from 50 percent in the 2020 august quarter to 44 percent in 2021. The effect, operating profit fell 6 percent in the quarter to $215 million from $230 million but increased 15 percent for the year to date, to $423 million from $369 million in 2020.
Administrative expenses excluding depreciation rose 25.4 percent to $134 million in the quarter and increased 32 percent in the six months to $249 million, from $188 million in 2020. Sales and distribution expenses increased 8 percent to $30.5 million from $28 million in 2020 for the half year and were virtually flat at $15.5 million for the second quarter. Depreciation charge rose from $59 million in 2020 to $62 million in 2021 for the six months. Finance cost rose in the quarter to $6.7 million from $6 million in 2020 and $9 million to $12 million for the six months.
Gross cash flow brought in $151 million versus $160 million in 2020. Working capital growth used up all but $13 million in 2021 versus $81 million used up in 2020. Additions to fixed assets consumed $83 million for the 2021 half year versus $62 million in 2020. Loan repayment and paying $26 million dividends resulted in outflows of $114 million. At the end of December, shareholders’ equity stood at $869 million, with long term borrowings at $303 million and short term loans at $13 million. Current assets ended the period at $408 million, including trade and other receivables of $65 million, cash and bank balances of $103 million. Current liabilities ended the period at $173 million. Net current assets ended the period at $235 million.
The results in the past few years being inconsistent does not mean that the future will continue in that vein. One focus is on taking a more significant share of the market for ice cream and related products while finding avenues to cut costs. The company announced earlier this year that in collaboration with Power Factor Technologies, a power engineering services company, they embarked on a major project to install a 630 kilowatt capacity Combined Heat & Power plant fueled by LNG at the company’s premises. This project is scheduled to come on stream at the start of 2022 and is expected to generate considerable cost savings and should have a positive impact on results for 2022 onwards.
The stock closed 2021 at $5.70 with a PE ratio of 9 much lower than the average for the market around 15 and below many Junior Market stocks trading around 20 times earnings.
Sharp rebound for Dolphin Cove
In March 2020, Jamaica closed its borders to incoming visitors by planes and ships as a result of the emergence of the deadly Covid-19 virus, thus bringing to a halt the important tourist industry and many others that relied on it.
The impact was immediate and devastating to the entertainment attraction entity, Dolphin Cove based in Ocho Rios, with locations on the north coast of the island. For the nine months to September 2020, the company posted revenues of just US$3.6 million and a loss of $864 million, with the September quarter generating revenues of just $320,000 and a loss of $590,000. By the third quarter last year, cruise shipping from which it generates a large portion of income had just 8,381 visitors in 2021 compared to 219,000 for the first nine months of 2019, but visitor arrivals by planes were back to 70 percent of the 2019 numbers for the third quarter and 54 percent in the June quarter and by November last year arrivals were down around 20 percent from the same month in 2019, an indication that the industry could well be nearly back on track in 2022 and provide a considerable boost to the company’s revenues.

Dolphin Cove closed at a 52 weeks’ high on Monday.
The company lost US$1.13 million for 2020, but chalked up a profit of $1 million in the 2021 third quarter, from $2.57 million in operating revenues, and a profit of $2.1 million for the nine months from operating revenues of $5.44 million. While revenues rose 51 percent in the nine months, expenses fell from $3.5 million to $2.9 million, with all categories of cost falling except for finance that rose from $96,000 to $215,000. Although operating revenues spiked 703 percent over the measly income for September 2020 quarter, direct expenses rose 61 percent to $258,000 and other operating expenses rose 139 percent from $548,000 to $1.31 million. The above numbers suggest that costs are down generally, it appears that some costs may have been fully trimmed from the system.
Gross cash flow brought in $2.5 million but growth in working capital, addition to fixed assets resulted in negative funds flow of $149,000 for the nine months. At the end of September, shareholders’ equity stood at US$29 million. Total long term borrowings amount to US$820,000 with bank overdraft at $1 million. Current assets ended the period at $6 million including trade and other receivables of $2.7 million, cash and bank balances of $2 million. Current liabilities ended the period at $2.6 million. Net current assets ended the period at $2.4 million.
At the end of December, the stock traded at $15 with a PE of 11 with the earnings per share of $1.35 and a PE of 5 with ICInsider.com projected earnings of $3 for the current year.