Watch SOS this week

In the Junior Market activity last week, Stationery & Office Supplies moved back to $5 after the company released impressive results for the year to June. Buying also came in for Barita Investments and Berger Paints while during the week and Scotia Group raced to a record high.
For the coming week investors should continue to keep eyes on NCB Financial Group, Berger Paints, that is priced currently at a PE of 6 times 2018 earnings, Caribbean Producers and Stationery & Office Supplies that IC upgraded earnings to 50 cents per share from 40 cents previously, with the initial public offer helping to drive more business subsequent to the June quarter, with reports of sales rising faster than the 25 percent levels experienced in the second quarter.
Caribbean Producers with improved 2017 results over 2016 with profit doubling, moved up to $4 during the week, before closing at $3.11 on Friday, after a big trade and should head back to the $4 range in the coming week.
Last week stated, “with cut in BOJ benchmark interest rate by 25 basis and a fall in the August Treasury bill rates, the entire main market is on IC’s watch list as the All Jamaica Composite Index could move to the 300,000 points mark before long.”
IC also stated, “the most noted move in the Jamaica Stock Exchange last week was Scotia Group racing to a record high of $52 but ending the week without any stock being offered for sale. This stock has to head the stocks to watch list this week.”
The All Jamaica Composite Index rose to 296,779.53 points during the past week and by the end of the week closed at a 291,332.10 up from 289,247.13 at the end of the previous week and Scotia Group ended at a record high of $60.

All Jamaica at 510,000 points in 2018

The main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange broke through resistance at 290,000 points on the All Jamaica Composite Index this week thanks mostly to a big surge in the price of Scotia Group to a record $57.99.
The All Jamaica Composite Index closed on Thursday at 293,186.46 points having hit 296,779.53 early in the day and technical indicators point to much higher levels in the months ahead and should 510,000 points by the end of 2018 before a great deal of resistance.
The central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points recently and that seems to be lending support to the market, but apart from the movement in Scotia, there are not much gains evident in most stocks, except for what appears to be some amount of increased trading. The accompanying chart shows the next two levels of resistance, around 370,000 points and 510,000 points on the All Jamaica Composite. Those levels seem some distant away but should be reached in 2018. The first level is 26 percent away and the other 74 percent away.
Stocks to watch as the market ride on, include Barita Investments, Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, Grace Kennedy, Jamaica Broilers, Jamaica Stock Exchange, NCB Financial Group, JMMB Group, Sagicor Group, Scotia Group and Supreme Ventures.

Keep an eye on Scotia Group

With cut in Bank of Jamaica benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in the last week of August and fall in the August Treasury bill rates, new life was brought to the main market last week with a number of days of record high.
The entire main market is on IC’s watch list as the all Jamaica Composite Index could move to the 300,000 points mark before long.
The most noted move in the Jamaica Stock Exchange last week was Scotia Group racing to a record high of $52 but ending the week without any stock being offered for sale. This stock has to head the stocks to watch list this week.
Others on the list are Barita Investments and Berger Paints two stocks that are subject of takeover offers, both stocks fell back sharply during the week, moves that appear unwarranted. Others on the list are, JMMB Group, NCB Financial Group with just 47,000 units on offer between $90 and $100, Sagicor Group and Supreme Ventures with a 41 percent rise in half year profit.
In the Junior Market, Caribbean Producers with improved 2017 results over 2016 with profit doubling, Jetcon Corporation that came under some selling pressure last week and fell to $4.50 and Stationery & Office Supplies complete the watch list.

Watch impact of interest rate cut

Lower interest rates make real assets more valuable than before, as such the biggest change to stocks this coming week may well be guided by the recent cut in interest rates, with Treasury bill rates falling and the Bank of Jamaica cutting its overnight rate by 25 basis points.
At the close of last week, Caribbean Cream closed at $6.20 and helped to return it to the TOP 10 list, replacing Lasco Financial with its price rising to $4 from $3.40.
There were no other change to the two listings at the close of the week, even as the main market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed to week at record new high. For the coming week the cut in interest rates by Bank of Jamaica as well as a fall in the most recent Treasury rates could well positively impact prices.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is at 7.5 and the PE for the main market TOP 10, ends the week at 7.3. The average PE for the overall main market trades at 13.6 and 13.3 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC’s TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 44 percent to the average of the market for Junior Market Top stocks and it remains at 46 percent for the main market.

JMMB could continue higher

JMMB Group traded at a 52 weeks’ closing high od $21.45.

Based on the trading activity for the past few days there seems to be increased interest in JMMB Group shares with a sharply declining supply being offered after the company released its first quarter results and announced that they have commenced commercial banking operations in Jamaica.
On Friday the price closed at $21.50 with 782,460 shares traded, after it traded at $23 in the morning session as supply totally dried up at one stage when only a small volume was on offer at $29, the first this has happened in a long time. At the close less than 240,000 units were offered for sales, with most quoted at $22.50. The group reported pretax profit rising to $995 million from $857 million in 2016 but profit after tax just inched up to $613 million from $590 in 2016.
Cable and Wireless came in for buying but sellers were just as interest in selling, in the end supply on the market has been shrinking. The stock could well see side-ways movement during the week, don’t be surprised if the price moves up as supplies around last week’s closing price recedes. NCB Financial Group has seen the price in Trinidad coming close to the Jamaican price on Friday, with demand still strong in that market and no stock on offer. The closing bid in TTSE suggests upward price movement can be expected. Supply in Jamaica is not great, it’s just that buyers are taking their time to acquire and could well be trying to hold out until close to the release of the full year’s results in early November. There was spirited buying of Barita Investments on Thursday gone, with 163,100 units being snapped up aggressively. There was no follow through of such aggression on Friday. It is anyone’s guess where this one will go, in the days ahead, but it is worth watching. Berger Paints pulled back to $14 during the week, with no announcement from its new parent company about the minority holdings. Ansa McAl announced that they would be making a submission about the 20 percent minority holdings in the Trinidad sister company, with no comments about the operations in Jamaica.

Consolidated Bakeries (Purity) stock could fall during coming week.

There is a fair bit of swing in the price of Stationery and Office Supplies with selling coming in during the week, but with buying more subdued than before. Investors can probably expect the price to swing between $4 and $5 for a while. The price could even falling into the $3 to $4 range depending on how fast sellers want to exit. At least that is what the bids and offers suggest, unless there are some increased buying in the week ahead.
Jamaican Teas after reporting nine months results with increased earnings per share over 2016, traded as high as $5.30 during the day but closed at $5 as increased interest was visible for the stock, suggesting that the price could rise further. Jetcon Corporation continues to attract buying interest after posting doubling of profits for the first six months of 2017 and traded as high as $5.70 before pulling back to $5.50 at the close on Friday, with bids to buy in line with the closing price. Paramount Trading came in for some buying with the price recovering from its fall to $2.50 recently after the company stated that they were I the process of constructing the Lubricant plant with operations to commence later this year. Currently supply below $4 is scanty.
Consolidated Bakeries reported a loss in its June quarter leading to a fall in the stock price. Selling continues with more than 660,000 units on offer at $2.15 and weak bids. Further decline is to be expected.

Cable & Wireless leads stocks to watch

Cable & Wireless Head quarters.

Cable & Wireless is possibly the main stock to watch for the coming week with the company returning to profitability in the June quarter.
The company lost several billion dollars for many years but posted a profit of $222 million in the latest quarter on an 11 percent surge in revenues. Subsequent to the close of the quarter, Cable and Wireless increased rates on a series of services that should add to revenues and profits in the coming quarters. Profit for the full year to December should end positively, thus wiping out the $311 million loss for the first half of the year after tax and a lower pretax loss of just $199 million. The recent turn around in the fortune of the company is likely to be a big surprise to many investors and will help move the stock price much higher than the $1.07 it closed at, on Friday.
Other stocks that investors should keep an eye on this week include, Barita Investments with an announced take over offer on the table, JMMB Group, Stationery & Office Supplies that just listed and selling below potential, NCB Financial with limited supply, Jetcon Corporation with profit doubling for the half year leading to strong buying in the past week and recently listed Express Catering with demand to buy 765,925 shares at $5.50.

NCB breaks out & heading higher

NCB Financial Group broke out of a triangle pattern over the past week, as the price hit a record $81 on Friday. The technical indicator is signaling a strong buy signal and a huge movement ahead, with the group  reporting strong gains in profit for 2017 over 2016. The stock has traded in a very narrow band in the $70 region for a number of months as it consolidated ahead a the big move it seems ready to make with limited supply coming into the market. Results for the none months to June suggest earnings in excess of $8 per share for 2017 with more to come in the new year starting in October. IC placed the stock two weeks now on a market watch list.

Neveast the next office supplies IPO

It was a big giveaway for those familiar with companies prepping for listing, by way of a pending initial public offer of shares. The Jamaica Observer newspaper on Wednesday, July 26, carried an advertisement for Neveast Supplies Limited, telling readers that they were celebrating 55 years of service to its customers.
The advertisement also stated that they were leader in stationery, office furniture and office supplies. In true Jamaican nationalistic style, the advert was rapped in the black, green and gold of the Jamaican flag, no doubt in synch with the 55 years of independence celebration this year.
Industry players say, they may be one of the biggest in stationery and office supplies but not of the office furniture and fixtures. Regardless, checks by this publication with persons knowledgeable about the company’s future plans, confirmed that they are likely to be the next stationery and office equipment to list on the Junior Market of the Stock Exchange. Recently, competitor Stationery and Office Supplies concluded a successful initial public offering of shares that were several times oversubscribed and are set to be the first to list when trading in the stock is expected to commence on August 9.
The brokers to the issue when it does take place, will be Mayberry Investments. Our sources state that they have been contemplating this move from at least 2016, but there are a few issues that need sorting out and should definitely be going to the market to raise capital and be listed before the end of 2017.
According to the company’s website, Neveast Supplies Limited is a family owned Jamaican company that started in 1962 when Founder, Neville East, decided to service the country’s stationery needs. Through market penetration and the help of his wife, Pamela, Neveast Supplies Limited expanded operations to include the supply of office and systems furniture.
Today, the second generation of Easts are at the company’s helm to oversee the daily operations. Sons, David, Paul and Gregory together with thirty-two other members of staff are devoted to the company’s success and ensure that Neveast remains the leader in office furniture and supplies with competitive prices on high quality products and efficient company service.
Neveast continues to be the authorized local distributor for international brands such as Teknion Inc, Global Upholstery Inc, MIN Office Furniture, Godrej, Aurora, Moderco, Virco, and a host of stationery manufacturers from across the globe. With its headquarters located in Kingston, the company’s distribution network covers the entire island of Jamaica and recently includes coverage in neighboring Caribbean countries.
IC has been reliably informed that Mayberry Investments should be brokering another two public offers by the end of September and possibly a third by the end of 2017, while there are listings being worked on by other brokers.

JSE Q2 profit jumps 41% one to watch

A sharp fall of $92 million in Exchange Operations’ revenue for the half year to June, resulted in the segment results falling $110 million to $41 million but a 41 percent rise in Depository Services’ revenues to $156 million and 20 percent in Trustee Services’ income to $137 million resulted in the segments’ profit rising by 83 percent and 17 percent to $82 million and $75 million respectively.
The improved performance in the newer services of the Jamaica Stock Exchange saw second quarter results increasing over the performance of the first quarter with a rise of 41 percent in profit after tax compared to a decline in the first quarter versus the strong 2016 first quarter. The gains in the June quarter reduced the fall in profits for the by percent to $102 million, compared with the corresponding financial period last year of $158 million. The six months performance resulted in earnings per share of 15 cents, the June quarter returned 6 cents per share.
Total Expenses grew 19 percent over the 2016 quarter to $167 million and 13 percent for the six months to $330 million. Major increases were experienced in professional fees which included cost for defending claims against an employee and advertising and marketing.
“It is expected that for the remaining quarters there will be more companies listing their securities on the exchange and a positive movement in fee income due to the expected increase in trustee Services clientele,” the chairman, Ian McNaughton and Managing Director Marlene Street Forrest stated in a release to shareholders accompanying the financials.
The balance sheet shows assets of $1.24 billion, cash funds of $517 million and stockholder’s equity of $891 million.
IC is forecasting earnings per share of 35 cents for 2017. The stock last traded on the Market of the Jamaica Stock Exchange at $6.

ISP Finance and C&W back in TOP 10

Pull back in the prices of several Junior Market stocks, resulted in changes in the TOP 10 junior stocks at the close of the week. The changes took place against the back ground of an unprecedented 5 issues of new shares around the same time in the market.
Some investors are of the view the public issue of shares all coming around the same time, contributed to the softness in the market over the past two weeks.
On Wednesday, this week, IC BUY RATED Stationery and Office Supplies (SOS opens to the public for purchase, at a priced of $2 and is expected to close on the same day it opens. Express Catering IPO opened and close last week Wednesday with more than 1,000 applications received.
ISP Finance price dropped to $13.56 during the past week to re-enter the Top 10. Returning back to the TOP 10 are Caribbean Flavours and Lasco Distributors
Moving out of the top list are AMG Packaging, Lasco Manufacturing with the price rising to $4.70 from $4.30 at the close of the previous week and tTech with the price rising 50 cents to a record $10.
In the main market Sagicor Group spent just one week in the top listing with the price moving from$30 at the end of the previous week to end at $33 and is replaced by Cable & Wireless with the price down under $1 at 80 cents, support for the stock is around 75 cents, hence it could bounce back from these levels soon.

NCB Financial Group is worth watching keenly in the days and weeks ahead.

Market movement continues to be constrained by near term resistance points, it does not prevent stocks from moving in either direction, but it will tend to keep prices overall from big movements upwards.
The average PE ratio for the Junior Market Top stocks is down at 6.8 with SOS in at a PE of 5 times 2017 earnings. The PE for the main market holds at 6.7. The average PE for the overall main market, remains at 13 and 12 for Junior Market, based on 2017 estimated earnings.
At the close of the week, IC’s TOP 10 Junior Market stocks now trade at an average discount of 43 percent to the Junior Market average, while those in the main market are trading at a 49 percent discount, to the average of the market, leaving stocks with room for growth in the months ahead in the market.
Two stocks to watch are Cable & Wireless with the price around support level and NCB Financial with very limited number of stocks currently being offered.