Profit plunges at Paramount

Profit dropped sharply at the Junior Market distributor, Paramount Trading for the November 2023 half year to $82 million from $149 million in 2022 and plunged from $65 million in the November quarter 2022 to just $25 million in the latest quarter.  
Operating revenues declined by 27 percent to $439 million in the November quarter from $601 million in the similar quarter in 2022 and for the half year, revenues fell by 28 percent from $1.2 billion to just $865 million. The company generated nearly $15 million in other operating income for the quarter versus a loss of $3, million in 2022, with the half year bringing in $33 million up from $27 million in 2022.
The company’s management attributes the reduction in revenues and profits, “primarily in the food grade and SIKA-construction segments that resulted from a one-off supply challenge and the expiration of a large building project respectively”. They also indicate that “the technical grade segment which accounted for 52% of total revenue performed one percent above the prior year. The lubricant segment also performed well with a 10 percent growth in revenues.”
Gross profit declined at a slower pace than the fall in revenues with the November quarter suffering a 19 percent fall from $202 million in 2022 to $164 million in 2023 and for the half year it declined 17 percent from $435 million down to $363 million. At the same time, administrative, selling and distribution costs rose marginally by 2.5 percent in the November quarter to $120 million from $117 million in 2022 and for the half year it declined 1.2 percent from $242 million down to $239 million.
Profit resulted in 1.6 cents earnings per share for the quarter down from 4.2 cents in the similar period in 2022 and 5.3 cents for the six months to November, a fall from 9.6 cents in the prior year.

Profit rise 23% in Q2 at Knutsford Express

Profit at Jamaica’s intra-island luxury bus service, Knutsford Express, rose 23 percent for the quarter ending November 2023 to $72 million up from $59, million in 2022 and 10 percent for the half year to $158 million from $143 million in 2022.

Knutsford Express

Revenues for the second quarter and the half year were up 19 percent respectively to $473 million from $398 million for the November 2022 quarter and for the half year, to $965 million from $830 million in 2022.
Profit resulted in 14 cents earnings per share for the quarter and 32 cents for the six months to November. ICInsider.com projects 85 cents for the year to May 2024.
The company generated net cash from operating activities of $225 million up from $173 million in 2022 but ended with cash outflows of $32 million that arose from payments of dividends, purchase of property and loan repayment, reduced the funds at the end of May of $87 million to $55 million at the end of November.

64% jump in Q1 profit at AMG

Profit at AMG Packaging climbed for the first quarter to November by a solid 64 percent to $39.86 million from $24.34 million in 2022, with profits for the quarter representing 44 percent of 2023 full year earnings of $89 million.
Much of the profit improvement arose from increased efficiency in the operations, following the introduction of new machinery.
The company, producers of cardboard carton boxes, reported revenues rising by just 7 percent to $272.5 million from $254 million in 2022. Manufacturing costs fell from $181 million to $171 million, with the cost of goods dropping by $14 million to $171 million and resulting in gross profit jumping 38 percent to $102 million from $73 million in 2022.
Pretax profit jumped 85 percent to $54.4 million, from $29.3 million but corporate taxes nearly tripled to $14.5 million from $5 million in 2022.

Image Plus Q2 profits jump 126% in Q2

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Image Plus Consultants reported a 126 percent surge in profit to $61.4 million before tax for the quarter to November 2024, from $27.2 million in 2022. For the nine months to November 2023, profit before tax dropped to $164 million by 9 percent compared to 2023 with $180 million.
The results emanated from a 27 percent jump in revenues to $315 million from $248 million for the same period the prior year. For the year to date revenues rose 8 percent to $869 million $803 million in 2022.  Growth in revenues for the nine months to November was negatively affected by downtime of one of the CT units in Kingston in the previous quarter.
Profit resulted in earnings per share of 5 cents for the quarter and 13 cents for the nine months to November.
Big changes occurred in the Financial statement with Fixed assets jumping from #319 million at the end of February last year to $1.15 billion while cash funds dropped from $592 million over the same period to just $15 million and borrowings jumped to $364 million from $113 million as of February.

AS Bryden jumps to record high of $45

New record high for AS Bryden.

AS Bryden, the Trinidad and Tobago based company that is majority owned by the Jamaican based Seprod, surged $8.50 after trading 25,001 shares and closed at a record high of $45. 
The stock is up 100 percent since listing in late 2023 at $22.50 in early November last year, but is up 55 percent from the first trade taking place of $29 for investors on the first day of trading.
At the close on Friday, there were only two offers to sell the stock with one for 4,999 units at $45 and 1,260 at $75. Bids were not plentiful with only 10,200 at $36 to buy with a few units above.
In short, the stock is scarce but investors should be careful as the PE ratio is close to 26 in a market with an average around 13.

Prospects for the Jamaican economy in 2024


Knowledge of a country’s economy is important in making investment decisions. Past performance while important is no guarantee that the future will be the same or better than the past. The Jamaican economy is looking good for 2024, with prospects of slower growth than for 2023, even as the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) maintains a tight monetary policy that could persist for much of 2024.
Barring increased interest rates, the Jamaican economy should grow around two percent in 2024, which will be down from around 2.7 percent in 2023. Growth in tourism and production at the Alcoa Alumina plant has now moderated from the sharp recovery in the early part of 2023, providing the stimulant for higher growth in 2023 but that added stimulant will not be there in 2024 as output from these sectors return to more normal levels.
In support of the above, the September quarter shows GDP growth moderating to 2.10 percent, this level of growth is unlikely to change much over the next few quarters. But BOJ could ease the tight monetary policy to provide some breathing space for increased production of goods and services, but this will have to await continued moderation in inflation, and there will be a lag of months for such easing to start feeding into increased production when such easing takes place. The early months of the year will be a guide as inflation should continue to moderate as the months unfold and pave the way for some interest rate reduction.
Inflation, although down sharply from the highs in 2022, is still not fully under control, with the average for 2023 running close to the upper end of the central bank’s target of 4 to 6 percent. Some developments that should help in bringing the rate down, include world oil prices that have fallen in 2023 to the low US$70 level and prices of some other commodities continue to fall into the latter part of 2023 and will have a moderating effect on inflation going forward. Some local costs may have an upward push on inflation but traditionally the period of December to April is usually months of very low inflation and in many cases, negative price movements as local food prices tend to normalize.
A tighter labour market locally could put upward pressure on wages and prices, but tighter monetary policy now in place from last year and some major wage adjustments from 2023 to compensate for loss of purchasing power then, may mean that the expected high wage adjustments may not feed into price rise as may otherwise be expected and could hold prices down for a while.
Despite the tourism sector returning to the usual historical growth levels it is expected that this sector will contribute to growth in 2024 and help stimulate growth in industries with a strong linkage to the sector. Assuming fair weather conditions, Agriculture, the star performer in the economy for several years should return to positive growth in 2024 in recovering from declines in 2023 and the sector will be helped by continued growth in the tourism sector that feeds off it. The BPO sector seems poised to continue to add to growth but there are issues with available manning. With continued growth in housing, road construction and the need for factories and warehousing space, the construction sector could hold its own during the year, but there may well be a lull in the sector with the two south coast roads coming to completion in 2023 or early in 2024. The Montego Bay perimeter road should take over but may not fully fill the gap.
ICinsider.com don’t see interest moving higher and most likely will start to decline before midyear with inflation within reach of the BOJ target of 4-6 percent in 2022 and with treasury bill rates seeming to peak in the  8 percent region and remaining relatively stable for several months. Certificate of deposit rates have been holding stable around 10 percent for months.

BOJ interest cuts overnight rate.

Unemployment at 4.5 percent in July last year is expected to fall further in 2024 towards the 3.5 to 4 percent region as more workers are needed to man the economic expansion. Companies will need to find innovative means to keep production going by implementing cost saving initiatives, otherwise, this could mean wage increases could rise above normal in order to retain or attract new workers.
The above is good news for the private sector overall that should see increasing demand for goods and services.
The banking sector showed loans growing at an annual pace of 13.5 percent per annum up to $1,216 billion to September over the $1,071 billion at the end of September 2022, data from Bank of Jamaica shows. Increased loan rates may be negatively affecting some areas and thus stymie demand. With what could be a year of reducing interest rates engineered by BOJ there could be even faster loan growth in 2023 than in 2022.  Data for the September quarter show loans increasing by nearly 4 percent or 16 percent annualized compared with just 2 percent in the June quarter or 8 percent for twelve months.
Remittances in 2023 are down by 1.2 percent to the end of September to US$2.53 billion and appear that it will be just short of the US$3.44 billion generated in 2022 but should come in at just over $3.4 billion for the year. Based on trends it may be steady in 2024.
Jamaica’s Net International Reserves continue to grow and are at a healthy $4.75 billion in December, last year, data released by Bank of Jamaica shows, a huge improvement over $3.98 billion in December 2022.
With continued growth in tourism, the resurgence in the Alumina sector and relatively stable remittances, improvements in local exports and continued growth in the BPO sector, the country should be enjoying record inflows of foreign exchange in 2024, putting BOJ in a good position to lower interest rates during the year as the reserves have been significantly built up.
Developments on the foreign exchange front will result in greater stability in the exchange rate for the local dollar as the tight monetary policy resulted in a US$770 million increase in the NIR and is likely to result in further build-up in the NIR in 2024. Investors should not be surprised if there is some revaluation of the local currency as well, especially in the first half of the year as the tight monetary policy pressures demand for foreign exchange.
The manufacturing sector should continue to continue positively to growth following expansions taking of a number of large companies.
The entertainment and transportation sectors seem poised to get a shot in the arm and benefit from the rebound in tourism, increased employment in the country and the general buoyancy in the wider economy.
Investors should pay attention to developments in the political seen as developments here can cause economic disruptions and muddy the investments environment.
The present government will be in power for four years at the end of August, but they have seen a reversal a huge lead over the opposition party in 2022 evaporated in one poll, with the opposition party having a slim lead. Another polling body done in August had the governing party leading with an increased margin over the previous poll, that showed both parties in a close race. Local government elections are due by February 2024, and barring some major negative development these elections appear ae set to proceed as planned. If the opposition does well in these elections it could result in the political heat being turned up a notch or two on the government going forward and could well trigger the calling of General Elections earlier than September 2025.
The above are positive developments but investors cannot ignore the impact that the war in Ukraine hand the Israeli-Hamas war can have going forward that could affect the world economies.

10% climb in tourist arrivals for December

Tourist traffic into Jamaica for December 2023, seemed to have enjoyed a double digit increase of as much as 10 percent, with passengers passing through Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, the airport that processes the bulk of visitor arrivals to the country, climbing a respectable 13.2 percent compared to the same period in 2022, data from Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, operators of the airport revealed.

Tourism is Jamaica’s largest earner of foreign exchange.

Montego Bay with 437,200 passing through the airport in December 2022 handled 495,100 in December last year and 5.212 million for the year, 19.6 percent above the 4.356 million in 2022.
Traffic passing through Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport fell 2.4 percent to 155,900 from 159,800 in 2022 but increased 12 percent.
The latest data shows a sharp improvement over November with Sangster International Airport handling 403,600 passengers, just 7.3 percent more than the 376,100 handled in November 2022, while the Kingston Airport processed 123,000 passengers, 6.6 percent fewer than the 131,700 handled in November 2022.
Data out of the Jamaica Tourist Board whose latest release on arrivals is sadly only up to August indicates that 83 percent of arrivals in 2023 represent tourists compared with 71 percent in 2022 but for December 2022 it represented 91 percent of one way traffic thought the a airports.

Jamaica’s NIR jumps US$151M to record high

Jamaica’s net international reserves jumped US$150.6 million in December to end 2023 at a record US$4.75 billion, with the report indicating that the amount represents 34.8 weeks of imports, data released by Bank Jamaica is shows.  
For the calendar year the NIR increased by US$770 million in 2023, that compares with a slight US$21 million fall in 2022 from 2021.

Profit rises 14% at GraceKennedy

Revenues at GraceKennedy rose 9.7 percent to $117.8 billion, over $10.4 billion earned for the nine months to September over the same period in 2022. Profit before tax reached $8.8 billion, up by J$1.1 billion, or a 14 percent increase, while net profit after tax rose 14.2 percent to $6.4 billion.
Profit attributable to stockholders hit $6 billion, a 15.3 percent increase over the corresponding period last year. Earnings per stock unit for the period were $6.02, compared to $5.23 in 2022.
Earnings per share for the full year ending in December should hit the $8 market, with PE ratio of 9 based on Thursday last traded price of $71.50.
The company stated that “GK’s food business demonstrated strong performance, with notable growth in revenue and profitability for the period. GraceKennedy Financial Group also delivered a positive performance, driven by strong top-line growth”.
A dividend of $0.65 per stock unit has been announced and will be payable on December 15, 2023, totalling approximately $643 million. This is the fourth and final dividend payment by GK for 2023, bringing GK’s year-to-date total dividend pay-out to approximately J$2.15 billion.

Seprod stock trades at $90

Seprod traded just 2,605 shares up to a 52 weeks’ high of $90 in Wednesday’s morning trading session on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. Trading is suspended as the price breached the circuit breaker, as there was limited selling of the stock.
Buying in the stocks could be better, with 43,579 units on the bid at $75 and 9,539 units between $75.01 and $80.90. Sellers range from 9,000 units at $80.90, 9,400 shares at $80.95, 2,989 units at $90 and 3,000 shares at $150.
As trading in the stock is suspended, more sellers and buyers could come to the market and change the day’s outcome.
At $90, the stock traded at a PE ratio of 18 times this year’s earnings. The significant publicly known development is the pending listing of Seprod subsidiary, AS Bryden and Sons, on the Jamaica Stock Exchange later this week. That will not affect the result of the group as it will neither increase nor decrease its earnings. It will not even change the group’s reported net asset value.
Seprod traded 1,459,106 shares in Tuesday trading session and closed at $79.99 with a gain of $6.97.

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