A series of some critical data being looked at suggest that the Jamaican economy is probably growing in real terms around 2-3 percent for the first half of 2017, far greater than the 0.2 percent the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) seems to be suggesting.
Criticizing official data put out by professionals within the governmental system is not easy and sometimes unwise, but when the data seems to fly in the face of reality, cautionary warning is warranted.
The PIOJ put out data on the economy for the second quarter, indicating a 0.3 percent growth over the same period in 2016. According to one of the daily papers, the head of PIOJ stated “that the preliminary cost of damage and losses incurred was $4 billion or 0.2 percent of Jamaica’s 2016 gross domestic product (GDP), which negatively impacted the performance of key sectors, including agriculture, forestry and fishing; mining and quarrying; and electricity and water supply. Mining and quarrying, and agriculture, forestry and fishing, contracted by 10.5 and 8.5 percent, respectively.”

While the Statistical Institute of Jamaica is the appropriate place for GDP data, the PIOJ do have the capability to do reasonable estimates. The problem is that data on agriculture to a large extent, are “quesstimates” coming out of the Ministry of Agriculture as far a domestic crop production is concerned. The data they put out in 2016 is at a huge variance with what other more credible data suggests. In the second half of 2016, the “quesstimates” showed agriculture growing at an astonishing 29 percent in the third quarter and 16 percent in the December quarter following the 9 percent increase in the second quarter of the year. The figures for second quarter in 2016 would have been more but for the fact that the Appleton sugar factory was closed for the entire season.
Where did this strong 2016 growth come from all of a sudden and why has it stopped in 2017? The authorities would want us to believe that 2017 fall is due to floods in the quarter. The only problem with that assertion is that the floods were mostly within the Clarendon area. Clarendon mainly produces livestock, cane and citrus, there is no evidence that production of these crops were badly affected. Production of most ground provisions would not have been affected and these are mostly grown in Manchester, Trelawny and St. Elizabeth. Vegetables in some areas may have been affected but hardly likely, since St Elizabeth would have most likely welcomed the rains for the vegetables growing. The most likely factor is that the ministry assumed damage to crops beyond what actually took place and secondly and most importantly they used wrong estimates for most of 2016.

Except for sugar canes that can be harvested mechanically, it is not possible, to enjoy a major increase in agricultural production against falling employment. That there could be a huge variance between production and employment in 2016 suggest that there were error in data gathering. Sectorial GDP growth of 9, 16 and 29 percent while employment in the sector declined 7 percent, rises just 3 percent and falling 4 percent respectively seem improbable.
The strange thing is that employment in the sector rose 3 percent in the first quarter of 2017 but GDP in the sector is down 4 percent. Why would the farming community be employing 6,700 more workers, if production is falling as the PIOJ is suggesting?
GCT collected in 2017 to July on local goods and services came in at $28.751 billion, 12.5 percent higher than for same period in 2016 of $25.57 billion and the 2016 figure grew just 4 percent from $24.58 billion collected to July 2015. Tax revenues are up to $153.63 billion from $142.62 billion some $11 billion or 7.7 percent higher, after an $8 billion fall in PAYE revenues offset by some tax increases. The data suggest that the economy is probably growing around the 2-3 percent range in real terms. Higher growth is partially backed up by employment numbers of approximately 36,000 over the past year which suggests growth closer to 2 percent. JPS data shows electricity net sales, rising by a strong 7.6 percent in the second quarter of the year a 5.5 percent in the half year suggesting that growth cannot be far from these levels. In contrast growth in net sales was slightly down in both periods in 2016 and was consistent with low growth in that year.
According to the Statistical Institute of Jamaica “Agriculture, Forestry, & Fishing: Data on agricultural production and production expenses are collected from several sources. With respect to commodities that are mainly for export, production information is obtained from commodity boards and International Merchandise Trade Statistics. For animal farming, fishing and commodities produced mainly for local consumption, data on quantity and prices are obtained from the Agricultural Marketing Information Division of the Ministry of Agriculture & Fisheries (MOA).”
“Information on cost of production is obtained from the Agricultural Marketing Information Division and commodity boards. Financial statements from large farms and studies undertaken by the MOA are incorporated into the compilation of the estimates.”
“Annual estimates: the first estimate is preliminary and this is followed by two subsequent revisions. However, estimates are open for revisions when new or improved data become available.”
“Quarterly estimates are revised when those of the subsequent quarters of the same calendar year are released. Estimates of previous years are only revised at the time of release of the first quarter estimates.”