Unilever dives $2.20 on TTSE – Monday

Unilever Caribbean crash $2.20 to sit at $27 just above the low of $26.75 reached in July, which is just above the price back in early July 2011.
Trading on Trinidad & Tobago Stock Exchange on Monday was more moderate than on Friday with just 148,531 shares valued at $1,117,407 changing hands, compared to 271,085 units valued at $2,133,526, on Friday.
Market activity ended with 12 securities trading against 10 on Friday, with 4 advancing, 6 declining and 3 remaining unchanged. At the close the Composite Index declined 1.42 points on Monday to 1,233.08, the All T&T Index fell 0.83 points to 1,718.01 and the Cross Listed Index slipped 0.28 points to close at 100.54.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the close of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows market sentiment with 3 stocks ending with higher bids than the last selling prices and 6 with lower offers.
Gains| Clico Investments closed with an increase of 3 cents at $20, with 2,992 stock units changing hands, One Caribbean Media rose 1 cent and concluded trading at $12.36, after exchanging 410 shares, Republic Financial Holdings finished 5 cents higher and concluded trading at a 562 weeks’ high of $102.88, after exchanging 145 shares and Trinidad & Tobago NGL gained 14 cents and settled at $29.74, after exchanging 3,921 shares.
Losses| First Caribbean International Bank lost 1 cent and completed trading at $8.49, with 114 units, JMMB Group ended trading 5 cents lower at $1.75, after exchanging 100,412 shares and Scotiabank concluded trading with a loss of 1 cent and ended at $65.01, with 3,522 units changing hands.
Firm Trades| First Citizens settled at $35.01, after exchanging 8,364 shares, National Flour completed trading at $1.79, with 137 units and Sagicor Financial ended at $7.50, with 27,732 stock units changing hands.

Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.

T&T central bank raised repo rate to 5%

Down town Port of Spain, Trinidad.

Trinidad and Tobago Central Bank hiked the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5 percent in June, in response to rising rates in the United States and signs of some improvement in the Trinidad economy.
The bank said, “rising interest rates in the US combined with relatively stable rates domestically have pushed the TT-US yield differential on three-month Treasuries further below parity. The differential currently stands at -74 basis points. The US Fed has signaled that further hikes are planned in the context of the solid US growth outlook. Should this materialize it could further widen the negative TT-US interest rate differential if domestic interest rates remain unchanged.”
The Central Bank further stated, “on the domestic front growth in the first five months of 2018 has been concentrated in the energy sector and is expected to spill over into non-energy activities, and there are encouraging signs in distribution and a recovery of business credit, although construction remains sluggish. Meanwhile, headline inflation continued to be low, measuring 1.1 percent(year-on-year) in April 2018, up from 0.8 percent in the previous month.”
The central bank went on to state that “private sector credit growth maintained its positive momentum, rising in April by 5.8 percent (year-on-year). Lending continued to be driven by loans for refinancing and debt consolidation, while some rebound in business credit suggests that private sector confidence could be strengthening. Further, the commercial banks’ weighted average lending rate has been falling since December 2017 and stood at 8.15 percent at end-March 2018. Liquidity levels trended lower but remain comfortable.”

JSE & FSC should explain Knutsford capital mess

Knutsford Express 2014 & 2015 audited accounts filled with errors & 2018 needs correcting.

Knutsford Express recently released full year audited results to May 2018 with s lightly higher profit of $178 million after taxation compared to $170 million in 2017. The profit resulted in earnings per share of 35.5 cents for the year versus 34 cents in 2017.
The initial release of the results had the 2017 earnings per share as $1.70, but that was incorrect as the wrong number of shares were used. The company released an updated report but that still reflects the error in computing the EPS. In June 2017, the shares were split in to 5 each, raising the issued capital to 500 million units. But the revised report carried the error which was in the first report that the weighted number of shares issued was 498 million units, that is completely wrong.

JSE failed to have errors corrected in audited accounts.

Stock splits and bonus shares don’t give rise to weighted number of shares as no value is added to the company. As a result, all the issued shares have to be used in computing the EPS for both periods.
The appropriate methodology is that the “Additional shares from the share split are incorporated in the calculation of EPS in full without any time apportionment so that the increase in number of shares in the current period, comparative prior periods and all subsequent periods is the same therefore resulting in EPS which is comparable over several accounting periods.”
Interestingly, the number of shares used to compute the interim report to February was correctly shown as 500 million units. As it now stands, the audited accounts and the interim reports have used different figures. What is the Jamaica Stock Exchange doing to correct this?
The first audited accounts, after listing, carried an even greater error was with no correction to date.
The audited accounts stated, “Earnings per share is computed as the net profit for the year divided by the weighted average number of ordinary shares in issue for the year as at the date of the statement of financial position of 46,857,114 (2013: 1,000). For comparative purposes, the earnings per share for 2013, using the weighted average number of ordinary shares at the end of the 2014 financial year, would be $0.74.”
The financial statements for 2014 stated, “During January 2014, the Company raised additional capital of $99,862,700 from its initial public offering of 99,999,003 shares for its enlistment on the Jamaica Stock Exchange Junior Market. Transaction costs of $5,374,140 were incurred for the initial public offering”. That is in conflict with the prospectus which stated, “The Company invites Applications on behalf of itself and the Founders (or the Selling Shareholders) for 20,000,000 Ordinary Shares in the Invitation of which 4,867,338 shares are newly issued shares for subscription and 15,132,662 shares are existing shares of the Selling Shareholders for sale”.

The FSC has fallen down on the job in reviewing Knutsford’s prospectus & reports after IPO.

While the note is saying that $100 million was raised, the cash flow and shareholders’ equity show that only $25 million was raised.
Not only are the audited accounts for 2014 and 2015 in conflict with the information included in the prospectus, it is factually incorrect as the initial public offer of shares was never 99,999,003 units. There is no indication how the original three shareholders holdings moved to the above amounts when just 973 were issued in the prior year.
The prospectus stated that “as at December 18, 2013 the latest practicable date prior to publication of this Prospectus, the holdings of Shares in the capital of the Company (including legal and, where known to the Company, beneficial holdings) were as follows: Oliver Townsend 41,858,371 or 44 percent, Anthony Copeland 30,442,452 Shares at 32 percent and Gordon Townsend 22,831,839 or 24 percent for a total issued Share Capital before invitation is 95,132,662. After the issues, the total number of shares went to 100 million units with all three original shareholders reducing their holdings.
One of the objectives for mentorship, of Junior Market companies, is to prevent errors like these from occurring, but they still continue.
While these errors remain, investors are being deprived of pertinent information to assess profitability. The company should be showing expenses in the categories of direct expenses marketing and sales, administrative and finance. But investors continue to get just one lump sum figure to assess that is not good enough.
While revenues for the past year grew by 23 percent to $925 million while other income declined from $8.5 million to $1.5 million. Cost climbed faster at 25 percent for the year before finance cost, Finance costs rose to $21.7 million from $17.6 million. The company is not subject to taxation and should not have deferred taxation amounting to $3.7 million, while the tax credit of $5.7 million in the prior year should not have been booked.
The balance sheet shows shareholder’s equity at $630 million at the end of May current assets at $304 million including cash and equivalent of $230 million and current liabilities of $63 million. Borrowed funds stand at $78 million.

Grace set to make big price leap

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Grace Kennedy traded at a 52 weeks’ high on JSE on Friday..

The Jamaica stock market is at an interesting stage, with supply of many stocks offered for sale, getting more scarce by the day, while interest rates are at their lowest levels in Jamaica’s history but are most are valued  at levels when interest rates were in the teens.
The main market has gained 8,387.30 points in July, and is now a record high as of Friday with gains of 9,486.57 since the start of July, thus mirroring the start of the usual summer rally on the Jamaica Stock Exchange, while the Junior Market continues to bounce and is now at a 9 months’ high.
Liquidity is very high and forcing interest rates lower as investors try to place funds on hands. As liquidity rise in the market supply of stocks is on the decline. Some of stock with scarce supplies include Grace Kennedy that has just one offer priced at $80 when the market closed on Friday, NCB Financial that is now trading over $100 is not far behind with limited offers. It has been years that the supply of Grace stock has been this low and suggest a big upward price move.

The All Jamaica Composite index now braking out of a narrow upward sloping channel going back to November 2017.

Berger Paints, Caribbean Cement, JMMB Group, Kingston Wharves, PanJam Investment, Sagicor Group, Seprod and Scotia Group with only 362,000 units on offer are amongst some that have very limited supplies being offered for sale on the market. But the main market is not the only segment with limited supplies.Over in the Junior market where demand is not as great as in 2017, supplies are limited for many of the listings. The list includes, Blue Power, Caribbean Flavours, Cargo Handlers, Derrimon Trading, Express Catering, Caribbean Cream, Medical Disposables and Stationery and Office Supplies. Caribbean Producers closed trading at $5.80 at the end of the previous week and ended this past week at $6.22 and may well go higher this coming week as it closed with a bid at $6.20. A number of these stocks could lead the break out of the markets in a big way when investors on a whole come to the realization that with interest rates now below 2 percent,

Medical Disposables profit jumps 49 percent before foreign exchange loss in Q1.

that the old accepted PE ratio of 10 being reasonable to value stocks, is no longer accepted and that ratios of 20 to 30 will become the norm going forward. Investors only need to look at stocks in in Trinidad and Tobago where PEs have been in the 20 level for years to understand where we will be heading in the not too distant future.
The main market continues to be steered higher by an upward sloping support line as well the 45 and 125 day moving averages, lending support just below the index and the Junior Market that is at a 9 month high, is being steered by an upward rising long term support line and the start of a golden cross.

Medical Disposables back in IC TOP 10

Medical Disposables back in IC TOP 10

The main market of Jamaica Stock Exchange ended at a record close on Friday and the Junior Market closed at a 9 months’ high as the markets keep moving higher resulting changes to the IC TOP 10.
At the close on Friday, Proven Investments ended at 19 US cents and fell out of the top list and is replaced by Victoria Mutual Investments. Jetcon Corporation and Paramount Trading dropped out of the top flight, to be replaced by Fosrich Group and Medical Disposables. IC insider.com lowered profit forecast for Paramount with the company showing only a small profit of less than a million dollars in the fourth quarter compared to nearly $11 million in 2017 after gross profit rose 29 percent or $28 million. Jetcon squeezed out by price changes, elsewhere Medical Disposables rose to $5.80 but made it back in the list with strong profit out turn for the first quarter to June and an upgrade of earnings for the full year, of 65 cents per share from 60 cents.
The PE ratio for Junior Market Top stocks averages 7.4 compared to an average PE for the overall market of 12, based on 2018 estimated earnings and the main market PE stands at 8 for the top stocks, compared to a market average of 13, a good indicator of the level of undervaluation of these stocks.
The TOP 10 stocks now trade at an average discount of 38 percent to the average for the Junior Market Top stocks but it’s a third of what the average PE for the year is likely to be of 20 times earnings and main market stocks traded at a discount of 40 percent to the market.
TOP 10 stocks are likely to deliver the best returns within a 12 months period. Stocks are selected based on projected earnings for each company’s current fiscal year. Based on an assumed PE for each, the likely gains are determined and then ranked, with the stocks with the highest potential gains ranked first followed by the rest, in descending order. Potential values will change as stock prices fluctuate and will result in movements of the selection in and out of the lists for most weeks. Earnings per share are revised on an ongoing basis based on new information received that can result in changes in and out of the list as well.

Medical Disposables Q1 profit jumps

Medical Disposables in IC TOP 10

Profit after tax at Medical Disposables and Supplies increased 22.7 percent to $19.2 million for first quarter to June, up from $15.7 million in the 2017 quarter.
Importantly, profit excluding foreign exchange loss of $4.2 million, rose a strong 49 percent to $23 million. The impressive increase in operating profit flowed from a 12.6 percent increase in sales in the quarter to $541 million, from $481 million in 2017. “This performance was mainly attributable to growth in the consumer business segment and price increases, Kirk Boothe, Managing Director, stated in commenting on the sales performance for the 2018 quarter. The increase is at a slower pace than sales for the December quarter of 21 percent and 19 percent for the 2018 fiscal year.
Gross profit increased $14.3 million or 14 percent to $117 million for the quarter, representing 23 percent of sales, up from 21 percent in 2017.
Sales and distribution cost slipped slightly from $33 million to $32 million, depreciation inched to $6.1 from $5.9 million while administrative expenses rose to $49 million from $41.4 million in 2017, as salaries and commissions increased by $3.35 million or 8 percent, General insurance rose by $800,000 or 47 percent following increased inventories and other assets and Professional fees and Information Technology Consultancy fees increased by $1.74 million or 36 percent for infrastructural improvements.
Cash flow generated $25 million and after changes in working capital, ended at $23 million with cash on hand ending at $29 million. Inventories fell to $421 million from $544 million at the end of March as a direct result of the increase in business opportunities, but receivables remained over $300 million at $318 million, a bit on the high side and trade payables fell to $292 million. Borrowed funds stood at $331 million. Shareholders’ equity rose $19 million to $692 million.
Earnings per share for the quarter was 7 cents, IC Insider.com projects 65 cents for the full year on the basis that the loss of exchange will remain substantially at the June quarter level and $1 per share for the next fiscal year. The PE ratio based on forecast earnings, is 9 at Fridays’ closing price of $5.80.

Investors push interest rate to 1.74%

Liquidity remains high, in the Jamaican financial market with investors driving the average to 1.74 percent on Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) 30 days certificate of deposit earlier this week, as demand of $24 billion chased $8.5 billion on offer.
In mid -July, more than $50 billion in government bonds expired with interest, but government took up less than $15 billion in new bonds, as it paid back the bonds in cash, using a large draw down from funds held at Bank of Jamaica by Public sector entities, amounting to $50 billion.
At the end of June, Public sector entities deposit at BOJ was $97 billion but fell to $46 billion after the payout of the bond. The payout added to the high level of liquidity in the market that helped drive interest rates down to 2 percent at the mid-July Treasury bill Auction.
On Tuesday, July 31, applications were received by BOJ for $8.5 billion BOJ 3 percent Certificate of deposit through a competitive price auction. The issue attracted 61 bids amounting to $24 billion, only 41 bids were successful, with the average yield of 1.74 percent. The lowest submitted rate was 1.39999 percent for $40 million and the highest was 6 percent for $40 million. The highest rate for full allocation was 1.83 percent in the amount of $100 million.
The average rate is below BOJ’s overnight rate of 2 percent and the last 91 days Treasury bill rate of 1.95963 percent.

Investors shun Junior stocks for the oldsters

Black Panther mash up Palace bottom-line with a huge increase in profit that pushed to stock to no 1 for 2018 in the main market.

Investors shunned Junior Market stocks in 2018 for the older more established Main market stocks. At least that is what the data from the exchange is showing.
According to the Jamaica Stock Exchange report of trading to the end of July, volume and value on the main market is up while that on the junior market is well down on 2017 figures, even as the gains in the overall market shows juniors up 14 percent for the year to the end of July and 9 percent for the main market.
Junior Market volume is down year to July by a stunning 69 percent to 571 million units while the value fell 64 percent to $2.69 billion, less than half of the $6.6 billion traded for all of 2017. In contrast main market stocks traded 1.57 billion units, up 28.5 percent over 2017, for a total value of $32 billion, a strong 79.4 percent increase over 2017 and just shy of the $35.7 million traded for all of 2017.
The big winners for the year to July are, Palace with an increase of 154 percent, that was helped by the huge success of the Black Panther film that ran for several months, Pulse Investments up 67 percent, Kingston Wharves 60 percent, Jamaica Broilers 45 percent and Salada Foods 41 percent, as investors responded to improved profit. In the Junior Market, C2W Music and Derrimon Trading beat all others by huge margins, rising 233 percent after it announced a 10 to 1 stock split and 197 percent respectively. Express Catering climbed 86 percent, Stationery and Office Supplies up 65 percent and CAC 2000 up 51 percent.
The big losers in the main market are, Ciboney, having sold off the property it owned and paid out most of the proceeds as a dividend is down 68 percent, 138 Student Living fell 35 percent, Kingston Properties 31 percent, Wisynco Group 24 percent, Portland JSX 20 percent and in the Junior Market, GWEST Corporation down 36 percent, AMG Packaging 33 percent, tTech 23 percent, Knutsford Express 23 percent and Eppley 17 percent.

Record 345,208 points close for AJI – Friday

Chart showing the All Jamaica Composite Index in upward move from December 2017 and now at the highest closing level ever.

The All Jamaican Composite Index of the Jamaica Stock Exchange closed above 345,000 points for the first time ever but fell short of the record high of 345,208.15 reached in the early morning session on Thursday.
At the close, the All Jamaican Composite Index gained 980.10 points to end at a record close of 345,050.21 and the JSE Index advanced by 892.98 points to a record close at 314,379.69. The move on Friday is the fifth straight record close for the market since the previous week Friday.
Trading in the main market ended with 4,818,830 units valued at $56,754,894, compared to 4,999,824 units valued at $34,788,166 on Thursday.
Market activities resulted in 29 securities trading including 3 in the US dollar market compared to 31 securities trading on Thursday. At the end of trading, the prices of 9 stocks rose, 9 declined and 11 traded unchanged.
The day’s volume was led by, Jamaica Stock Exchange trading 1,993,806 shares for 41.38 percent of the day’s traded volume Mayberry Equities closed trading with 469,705 units or 9.75 percent of shares trading and Radio Jamaica ended trading with 389,089 units and accounting for 8.07 percent of the day’s volume.
Major price changes| Carreras traded 333,862 shares but lost 30 cents to close at $9, Caribbean Cement rose 49 cents and finished at $41.50, with 119,028 shares, Kingston Wharves concluded trading at $52.50, with 8,815 shares after gaining 40 cents. Mayberry Investments jumped $1.25 to a 52 weeks’ high of $8.25 trading 118,800 shares and after pulling back from $8.40 earlier in the day, PanJam Investment concluded trading of 7,340 shares at $52.55, after rising $1.55 and Scotia Group traded 349,178 units and rose 8 0 cents to end at $53.
Trading in the US dollar market closed with 40,481 units valued at US$10,641 as JMMB Group 6 percent preference share completed trading of 3,000 stock units and fell 1 cents to end at $1.04, Productive Business Solution ended trading 1,000 shares to close at 59 US cents and Proven Investments closed at 19 US cents trading 36,481 shares. The JSE USD Equities Index close unchanged at 155.14.
Trading resulted in an average of 185,340 units valued at an average of $2,182,8811 for each security traded, in contrast to 185,179 units valued at an average of $1,288,451 on Thursday. For the month to date an average of 185,258 units traded for an average of $1,727,278. July closed with an average of 169,022 units valued at $3,514,756, for each security traded.
IC bid-offer Indicator| At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading shows 4 stocks ended with bids higher than their last selling prices and 2 closing with lower offers.

More gains for Junior Market – Friday

The Junior Market Index climbed higher by 19.74 points to close at 3,130.20 on Friday as 23 securities changed hands, compared to 19 on Thursday, with 9 advancing, 8 falling and 6 remaining unchanged.
The market closed with, 771,621 units valued at $2,972,863 changing hands, compared to 3,659,666 units valued at $16,503,092 on Thursday. The market will be closed on Monday, Independence day public Holiday.
IC bid-offer Indicator|At the end of trading, the Investor’s Choice bid-offer indicator reading had 5 stocks ending with bids higher than their last selling prices, one with a lower offer.
Trading closed with an average of 57,100 units for an average of $240,564 in contrast to 40,612 units for an average of $156,466 on Thursday. The average volume and value for the month to date amounts to 49,641 units valued at $202,520. Trading in July, averaged 154,060 units valued at $655,146 for each security traded.
At the close of trading, Access Financial traded 500 shares and closed with a loss of 50 cents at $46.50, AMG Packaging ended at $2, trading 2,350 stock units, Caribbean Cream ended trading with a loss of 27 cents at $5.50, in exchanging 12,086 shares, Caribbean Producers gained 32 cents to close at $6.22, with 60,659 units trading, Consolidated Bakeries closed 6 cents higher at $2.16, with 20,000 shares. Derrimon Trading jumped $2.37 to $23, in exchanging 500 shares, Dolphin Cove finished trading at $16.50, with 5,047 stock units, Elite Diagnostic settled at $2.90, exchanging 49,649 units, Everything Fresh traded 7,795 shares but lost 2 cents to end at $1.98, Express Catering traded with a loss of 5 cents at $7.95, with 18,000 shares. FosRich Group finished trading with a loss of 45 cents at $2.52, exchanging 52,712 shares, GWest Corporation ended at $2.20, with 1,220 units, Honey Bun concluded trading 8,667 shares with a loss of 14 cents to $4.51, Jamaican Teas jumped 65 cents to $4.50, trading 12,298 stock units. Jetcon Corporation traded with a loss of 8 cents at $4.03, after 13,432 units were exchanged, Lasco Distributors concluded trading 2 cents higher at $4, with 162,200 stock units changing hands, Lasco Financial added 5 cents and closed at $5.25, with 173,650 units, Lasco Manufacturing settled 8 cents higher at $4.10, trading 53,978 shares. Main Event ended trading with a loss of 39 cents at $7.11, with 11,269 shares and Stationery and Office Supplies rose 2 cents to $8.12, with 13,781 units. In the junior market preference segment, Derrimon Trading 9% ended at $2.50, with 422,708 stock units, Eppley 8.25% concluded trading 171,500 units and rose 10 cents to $6.21 and Eppley 8.75% settled at $6, with 39,300 shares changing hands.
Prices of securities trading for the day are those at which the last trade took place.

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